Week 2 Colts Defensive Rankings and Analysis: Colts give up big plays

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

Due to a fortunate Green Bay Packer goal line fumble, the Colts defense yielded only 16 points in week 2, which was the 12th lowest points per drive for an offense.

However, that number hides a problem that Indy has, which is explosive plays. The Colts’ defense gave up 9 big yardage plays for 178 yards, which means Green Bay didn’t need to get that many first downs to be in scoring position.

So even though Green Bay had a low Drive Success Rate (70.4%), it didn’t matter because they were in soring position on 6 of their drives.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The Packers earned only an average amount of first downs per play (15th 1st/ply), but had the 3rd most explosive plays. So, even though Indy held Green Bay to the 10th worst success rate (adj TSR), it didn’t matter, because the successes they did yield were huge plays that gave Green Bay the 11th best yards per play.

So far, those big plays seem to be the biggest problem for the Colts. Through 2 weeks, Indy has given up the 3rd most explosive plays for the 6th most yards.

PASS TOTALS

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With Jodan Love under center, its no surprise that Colts pass defense was poor . . . say again? . . . Malik who? . . . never threw for more than 100 yards before? . . . oh.

Malik Willis put up the 3rd best passing efficiency and 6th best passing success rate because of course he did. He also earned the 3rd highest 1st down rate and 4th highest yardage efficiency. The good news is that he threw only 14 attempts for 95 net yards, so it was really more embarrassing than it was damaging.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Unsurprisingly, Green Bay mostly ran the ball. They had 53 carries, which is more than any team and will naturally earn significant yardage volume.

However, the Packers had the 9th lowest epa per carry and just an average first down conversion rate. Add in a lost fumble and from an efficiency perspective, that puts the Colts run defense 10th on the week.

Of course that is a hollow stat, when 8 of those carries were for 10+ yards gaining 139 yards of field position. Normally, good efficiency is enough to stop the opponent, but not when you can’t cap the successful runs.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

Through 2 weeks, this defense is looking rough. You don’t want to be in the lower left quadrant of this graph and yet, that is exactly where the Colt defense is. I don’t know what magic wand to waive to get them to stop giving up big plays, but until they do, expect more of the same.

The next offense this team will face is Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears. The Bears offense has had a hard 2 weeks. They currently sit with the 5th lowest Points per Drive and the 3rd lowest Drive Success Rate.

Caleb Williams has not had a good start. He has earned the 3rd lowest EPA per dropback and the 5th lowest passing success rate. Their O-line has been porous yielding the 10th most pressure even though Williams has the 7th quickest time to throw. He has had to abandon passes consistently and has the 2nd highest sack rate in the league.

Their run game isn’t that much better, with the 25th ranked Adj Rush Success Rate and the 6th lowest conversion rate.

If the defense was looking for a get-well game, this is it.