INDIANAPOLIS – Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ rematch with the Tennessee Titans Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium:
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m.
- Broadcast: CBS4.
- Spread: Colts by 14½.
History lesson, Part I
The Colts have reapplied a stranglehold on a series they lead 40-23. They’ve won five straight and are going for their third straight seasonal sweep after dominating the Titans 41-20 in week 3 in Nashville. Indy has swept the Titans 11 times since the AFC South’s inception in 2002. The last time they’ve done it at least three years in a row: 2012-16.
History lesson, Part II
For those keeping track at home, the Colts’ 232 points through seven games are the most in the Indy era and the third-most in club history. The record for the most points in the first eight games: 274 in 1964. So, that’s in play with the Daniel Jones-led offense operating at this level.
History lesson, Part III
The Colts are favored by 14½. That’s their fattest spread since being 14½-point favorites for their trip to Jacksonville in the final game of 2021. The Jaguars were 2-14 and the 9-7 Colts would earn a playoff berth with a victory. You remember how that ended. Indy experienced a team-wide meltdown in a 26-11 loss.
Eliminate any suspense
It’s easier said than done, but the best way to handle this type of situation is to jump on a lesser opponent from the outset and not give it a reason to believe it can pull an upset.
“Yeah, you just got to know it’s a rivalry,’’ wideout Alec Pierce said. “We play this team twice every year. It would mean the world for them to knock us off, especially coming here and playing at Lucas Oil.’’
The Colts are an NFL-best 6-1 and off to their best start since 2009. They hold a two-game lead over Jacksonville in the AFC South. The Titans are 1-6, have already fired Brian Callahan and needed a can-you-believe-it? finish at Arizona in week 5 – winning 22-21 as time expired after trailing 21-6 with less than 11 minutes remaining – to avoid joining the Jets as the NFL’s only winless teams.
In the first halves this season, the Colts have outscored their opponents 127-56, while the Titans have been outscored 94-47. En route to its hot start, Indy has mounted halftime leads of 20-0 (Miami), 20-6 (Tennessee), 20-3 (Las Vegas) and 20-3 (Chargers).
The Titans have failed to score a first-half TD in five of seven games and have been shut out in the first half twice.
Grab control early and don’t let up.
Pressure the rookie
It’s much too early to draw any conclusions regarding the viability of Cam Ward as the Titans’ quarterback of the future. The No. 1 overall pick in the draft finds himself smack dab in the middle of a mess, which his stats confirm. He’s completing 57.6% of his passes (29th and last among qualifying QBs) and averaging 5.8 yards per attempt (28th). Ward has been sacked a league-high 30 times and has accounted for 10 of the Titans’ 12 turnovers – five lost fumbles, five interceptions. The dozen giveaways lead the league.
Ward still has a legit running back in Tony Pollard (380 yards, two TDs) and reliable targets in tight end Chig Okonkwo (23 catches, 218 yards) and rookie wideout Elic Ayomanor (19 catches, 225 yards and two TDs). Veteran Calvin Ridley is out with a hamstring injury.
The Colts’ defense is missing key components (cornerbacks Charvarius Ward and Jaylon Jones, end Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis) and has given up 51 points and 845 yards the past two weeks. But the Titans bring the NFL’s worst offense to Indy: 32nd in scoring (13.7), yards per game (235.6) and yards per play (4.1); 31st in rushing (75.7) and passing (159.9).
Stress the Titans’ D
Again, this is a game of stark contrasts. While the Titans’ offense ranks at or near the bottom in most meaningful categories, the Colts are at or near the top: 1st in scoring (33.1), drives ending in points (61.9%, well ahead of the Chiefs at 52.3%) and yards per play (6.4), and 2nd in yards per game (380.3).
As we’ve pointed out several times, Jones and his supporting cast aren’t doing things out of the ordinary. They’re simply executing at a high level. There will be adjustments to the game plan from week 3, but we wouldn’t throw it out entirely. That day, Jones passed for 228 yards and a touchdown to Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor piled up 102 yards and three TDs on 17 attempts.
The Titans are 14th against the pass (210.0), but that’s probably because they’re 29th against the run (139.6).
The Colts catch a break with Titans Pro Bowl tackle Jeffery Simmons being ruled out with a hamstring injury and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed being placed on IR (hamstring). End Arden Key is questionable with a quadricep injury.
Indy is also regaining its health. Wideouts Josh Downs (concussion) and Ashton Dulin (chest) return after missing last week’s win over the Chargers.
And the winner is: Colts 34, Titans 13.
And we’ll really be surprised if it’s that close. The Titans might tack up a late window-dressing touchdown. While this might be one of those trap games after blowing out Tennessee in week 3 and coming off the impressive road win against the Chargers, Shane Steichen has kept this group razor-focused.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.