Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Last week, against the Jaguars, he wasn’t that great, but he’s really only had 1 bad game this year (week 6 TB). In all the other games, he has been phenomenal.
His depth of target is right about league average, but that seems to be trending down as is his time to throw as you will see later.
High yards per attempt with average air yards.
Davante Adams is by far his favorite receiver. Maybe somebody cover him?
Up and to the right is good and most of his wide receivers live there . . . as they should . . . I’m looking at you T.Y. Hilton.
Overall good accuracy, but there is a lot of variance. His worst accuracy was on a 4 sack day against the Bucs.
His passes on > 30 yards are completed at a ridiculous rate, but the 16 – 30 yard range passes have a lower completion rate than league average. You can’t let Adams get behind you.
He doesn’t hold the ball a long time and almost never gets sacked. He has been throwing it a bit quicker and a bit shorter as the season wears on.
He’s hasn’t been as good on the left side of the field, which may be why he favors the right side in volume, but regardless, that is a lot of green.
Dropbacks: Attempted passes, Sacks or QB scrambles with QB spikes removed.
EPA per Dropback (EPA/db): For any given down, distance and field position, there is an average amount of points the team is expected to generate from that spot (EP). After the play the added EP (EPA) is calculated. EPA/db is the average of EPA for all QB dropbacks.
Passing Success Rate (PSR): This is the % of passes that were successful. Success is determined by dropbacks that have an EPA > 0. This is useful, as it evenly weights all dropbacks, so that extreme EPA events can’t bias the measure.
First Downs per Dropack (1st %): The percent of dropbacks that result in a first down.
Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A): Passing yards plus scramble yards minus sack yards divided by dropbacks.
Air Yards (ayd): The distance a pass travels through the air past the line of scrimmage. Passes behind the line of scrimmage have negative air yards. Batted down passes have 0 air yards.
Yards After Catch (YAC): The distance gained by a receiver after catching a pass.
Completion Percent Over Expected (cpoe): The percent of passes completed above expectation based on air yards, field placement and other variables. This is a proprietary stat provided by nflFastR.
Time to Throw (TtT): The number of seconds from snap to release on passing attempts.