Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Matthew Stafford had a big debut with the Rams. He had the 3rd highest epa efficiency and the 10th best Passing Success.
I had to change the scale on these next charts because Stafford was literally and figuratively off the charts. I mean, 11.6 net yards per drop-back is kind of ridiculous.
Ironically, his incomplete passes were on short throws.
His 8.8 average depth of target ranked 11th. His 9.1 air yards yds per completion was 2nd highest. In other words, he was not dinking and dunking.
He had the 2nd highest Yards per Attempt off of the highest completed air yards per attempt.
He threw even longer TD passes than Russell Wilson and from farther away.
Cooper Kupp had a day. Van Jefferson wasn’t far behind.
A 76.9% completion rate on an average depth of target of 8.8 is just crazy good. That is reflected in his +8.3% cpoe.
Most QBs that throw far, have a long Time To Throw. Not Stafford.
Long throws, high accuracy, good receiver yac and low sack rate combine for great yardage efficiency. Add lots of first downs, TDs and no turnovers and you get insanely high epa efficiency. It’s not a surprise that the Rams had the highest offensive points per drive in week 1.
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB dropbacks.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttd: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws, scrambles or is sacked.
pr%: The % of dropbacks where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of dropbacks that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of dropbacks
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of dropbacks
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of dropbacks
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of dropbacks
ny/d: Net Yards per dropback. (Passing Yards – Sack Yards + Scramble Yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of dropbacks
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of dropbacks
rze: Expected Points Added per dropback in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per dropback outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per dropback on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of dropbacks that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per dropback.