Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
HOW WELL?
Davis Mills is coming off a very good game against a tough Patriots pass defense, where he had the 3rd best epa/d and 7th best net yardage per attempt of the week. However, on the season, he has been pretty poor (27th epa/d, 29th ny/d).
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HOW FAR?
He has the 24th ranked ypa.
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So far, his average depth of target is 13th longest and the average completion depth is 12th.
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His TD depth is above average but he hasn’t thrown many (5).
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TO WHO?
Brandon Cooks is by far his favorite receiver with 32 targets, almost 3 times more than #2.
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HOW ACCURATE?
His overall accuracy is horrible, ranking 3rd worst on the year.
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HOW FAST?
Even though he throws it far, he doesn’t hold the ball long (19th TTT), yet he still takes a lot of sacks.
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TO WHERE?
He is not successful on anything past 10 yards.
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DASHBOARD
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He has faced the 2nd hardest defenses (opd) on a run-first team that is horrible on the ground (32nd ed%, 32nd wrsr).
He has not faced much pressure (21st pr%) but still has the 2nd highest sack rate (sk%). He rarely scrambles (32nd scr%) preferring to throw the ball away when pressured (4th ta%).
He has long attempts (13th adot) but has trouble connecting on them (30th cpoe) resulting in below-average efficiency (24th ypa). His sacks drag an already poor efficiency down to the 4th worst overall yardage efficiency (29th ny/d).
He has the 2nd highest turnover rate (to%) and can’t get first downs (30th 1st%). Once in the red zone, he has had success (6th rze), but his overall play is near the league bottom (29th psr, 27th epa/d).
GLOSSARY
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB dropbacks.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttd: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws, scrambles or is sacked.
pr%: The % of dropbacks where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of dropbacks that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of dropbacks
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of dropbacks
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of dropbacks
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of dropbacks
ny/d: Net Yards per dropback. (Passing Yards – Sack Yards + Scramble Yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of dropbacks
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of dropbacks
rze: Expected Points Added per dropback in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per dropback outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per dropback on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of dropbacks that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per dropback.