According to NFL.com’s Chad Reuter, the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers could become potential trade partners on ‘Day 1’ of the upcoming 2021 NFL Draft—with his proposed trade between the two teams ‘that makes sense’:
Green Bay Packers
RECEIVE: No. 21
RECEIVE: No. 29
Colts also receive: Two 2021 fourth-rounders.
Green Bay has become an aggressive team in the first round under GM Brian Gutekunst, entering his fourth season on the job. The Packers have traded up in each of the past three drafts, twice for defensive help (cornerback Jaire Alexander, taken 18th overall in 2018, and safety Darnell Savage, taken 21st in 2019).
Another trade seems like it could be in the offing this year, and that switch could net the Colts two late fourth-round selections. Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome is the most logical target for the Packers at 21, though Jamin Davis and Zaven Collins, Minnesota receiver Rashod Bateman, Oklahoma State offensive tackle Teven Jenkins, and even Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley could be in the mix, with Farley’s back injury potentially preventing teams from taking him in the top half of the first round.
Indianapolis may have interest in some of those players, too, but the Colts could instead take the extra picks and select Texas left tackle Samuel Cosmi or cornerback Eric Stokes at 29.
Using DraftTek’s draft pick trade value chart, the Colts would trade the #21 pick (800) for the Packers #29 pick (640) and their two fourth round picks: #135 (38.5) and #142 (35) respectively.
That’s 800 total value given up by the Colts to a mere 713.5 acquired (which I don’t like)—namely because the team trading up normally surrenders more (if either) in comparison.
Historically, Colts general manager Chris Ballard maximizes potential acquired value on Draft ‘Day 1’ trades (see: the mega-trade down with the New York Jets in 2018 that landed Quenton Nelson and a home run draft haul and the following Washington Football Team trade down in 2019—which netted Rock Ya-Sin and an early 2020 second round pick), so it would be surprising if he didn’t acquire at least equal or greater value here from Green Bay.
That being said, the idea that the Colts may trade down has some legs, especially since the team already surrendered its 2021 third round pick for Carson Wentz, and Ballard notoriously ‘loves ‘dem picks’.
Here, it’s interesting that two of the highly regarded prospects that Reuter notes could pique the Packers’ interest: Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome and Oklahoma State offensive tackle Teven Jenkins could also be right on top of the Colts realistically available Big Board with the 21st overall pick—as both would fill major team needs for Indy.
However, if the Colts have a group of prospects who they value realistically more or less the same in their respective evaluations and think they can get at least one at #29, then such a trade down would make sense (especially for instance, if they have say Texas offensive tackle Samuel Cosmi more or less the same as Jenkins in their evaluations).
Even though the Colts should be able to get more value than the two fourth round picks that Reuter proposes, the idea of a trade down, in itself, isn’t far-fetched at all.
With Green Bay’s inclination to trade up in recent seasons, the Packers make for a potential realistic trade partner with the Colts too—in such a scenario.