Throughout the offseason, we’ve gotten to hear about some of the Colts’ schematic changes that are coming on the defensive side of the ball.
Throughout the offseason, we’ve gotten to hear from the Indianapolis Colts’ Chris Ballard, Shane Steichen, and Lou Anarumo about some of the schematic changes that are coming on the defensive side of the ball.
One of the more questionable decisions from the Colts was to bypass adding a linebacker in free agency and the draft. Chris Ballard explained the team’s decision by noting that the new defensive scheme will feature more “two-linebacker sets”. We’ve also heard the Colts mention that there will be more Dime defense.
It’s too early to know exactly what the Colts will do or how the roster will take shape, especially when players are practicing without pads, but we can begin to explain some of the changes we’re likely to see, and why we’re going to see them.
Everything you need to know about Nickel
Let’s start of with explaining the implications of more “two linebacker sets”. Here’s Chris Ballard’s full comment on the linebacker position:
We think we will be OK in that area. You’ve got to understand that Lou (Anarumo), it’s a little different than we’ve done in the past where we had a MIKE, WILL and a SAM. Now we are just playing with a MIKE and a WILL. So, not as many guys are as needed as in the past.” – Chris Ballard
Part of what Chris Ballard is describing is more Nickel defense, which is NOT foreign concept to NFL teams. Most NFL fans know the difference, but to provide a brief explanation:
A traditional personnel grouping in a 4-3 defense, is four down lineman, three linebackers, and four defensive backs. A defense will usually do this when an offense plays with heavier personnel (ie. more TEs or RBs).
In Nickel defense that third linebacker is swapped out for a nickel corner— in this case Kenny Moore. So now you have 4 down lineman, 2 linebackers, and 5 defensive backs. Defenses will usually bring in that extra corner when a defense plays with more than two WRs.
Offenses want to play with more receivers on the field, so defenses put more corners on the field. Simple enough, right? But why does any of this matter?
The NFL is a mismatch league— plain and simple. You can draw up an awesome play with all these bells and whistles— but at the end of the day— if my player is better than your player, it really doesn’t matter what the play is.
Defense is all about mitigating those matchup problems. The easiest way to do that is by matching personnel. Speed on speed, size on size. This way you don’t end up with a tiny corner on a tight end, or even worse, a slower linebacker on a wide receiver who runs a 4.3.
In 2024, when an offense came out in heavier personnel (2 WR’s or less), the Colts, under Gus Bradley, matched with base defense, 79% of the time. In comparison, the Bills—who are notorious for playing a lot of nickel defense—matched only 12% of the time. If the Colts are planning to play even more nickel, it’s a fair assumption that they’re going to trend much further in Buffalo’s direction. (For reference, the Bengals matched at roughly 24% of the time in 2024).
Why might they do that? First and foremost, they believe in Kenny Moore and their two DT’s.
Kenny Moore is one of the leagues’ best nickels, and the defensive staff is likely to lean on that. They think he’s a guy who can cover the best slot receivers, but also is tough enough to play the run and make tackles in the backfield.
The team also has a lot of belief in Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner. In this system— which could be its own breakdown— lineman are going to play multiple gaps, which eases up the run responsibilities for second level players. That allows you to play with lighter boxes and lighter personnel because you have two guys on the interior of the DL who can do a lot of the work for you.
But the primary reason they want to live in Nickel defense is so they can have their cake and eat it too. If I can still defend the run with all my best cover guys still on the field, Why wouldn’t I?
Tight ends have changed the modern passing attack. Offenses like Kansas City, Baltimore, Detroit, and Las Vegas are begging for defenses to match their personnel. They want you to fear their run game enough to field three linebackers—because, ultimately, none of those linebackers can effectively cover their tight ends in open space.
Conversely, if you play with lighter personnel defensively, offenses want your nickel corners to have to tackle guys like Jonathan Taylor in space, or take on a block from 260 LB Tyler Warren.
Having a nickel who you feel comfortable coming up in the run game, as well as two DT’s who can eat up space in the interior gaps, gives you the flexibility to play with lighter personnel in traditional run situations.
The 5-2 and Grizzly Front
So we know that the Colts are likely to play more Nickel defense, but thats not the only reason a third linebacker wasn’t a significant need in the eyes of the Colts.
This is where the Grizzly front comes in to play.
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The Grizzly front is a popular answer in this system to 12, 13, and 21 personnel. Instead of always bringing in a 3rd linebacker, Lou would play a 5-2 front.
In a Grizzley front the DE’s are C-gap winners. They control the C gaps. The DE’s are “Attack and React” players. The Mike will work off the Nose.
There are some other types of 5-2 fronts that Lou likes, but Grizzly is the most popular one.
Part of the reason you might like the 5-2 Grizzly over a traditional 4-3, is that it limits the amount of double teams an offensive line can have.
The Different types of Dime
We’re also here to talk Dime, the defense the Colts are planning to play a lot more. In the prime years of the Lou Anarumo defense, they played Dime around 15% of the time, which is pretty significant. Under Gus Bradley the Colts only played Dime in very rare cases. Those rare cases were mainly end of half, Hail Mary, and third and forever scenarios.
Whenever they did play Dime, they played what’s known as “Big Dime”, a personnel grouping that brings a third safety into the game instead of a fourth corner. That third safety was usually Rodney Thomas.
The Colts brought in Charvarious Ward and Justin Walley into their existing mix. This is going to give them the opportunity to play more traditional Dime.
Whenever you think about bringing in a 6th DB, you have to decide who is going to cover who is going to cover who— specifically the tight end.
The TE is why Lou Anarumo has been so big on Dime personnel in the first place. Here were his comments
“Certainly, if the offense puts out a certain personnel group, you want to be able to match up with what they’re doing. Especially on third down. The days, to me, of putting linebackers on tight ends is not ideal for the defense. So, you always want to get a bigger, longer athlete that maybe can run a little bit..DB mindset. So more DBs out there in pure passing situations I think is something that we’ve always tried to do and will continue to do.” – Lou Anarumo
In 2025 the Colts will face Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, George Kittle, Trey McBride, Evan Engram, Jonnu Smith, just to name a few. Someone will have to cover them, and Lou is suggesting (and I agree with him) that a linebacker won’t cut it.
Even if they only manage four or five catches, those often come in critical moments that crush a defense. The defense might execute perfectly, but then the tight end breaks free for a first down. Or they blitz, forcing a hot throw into the flat, yet the tight end keeps the chains moving. Or worse, on third down, everyone’s covered, but the play breaks down, and the linebacker can’t hang with the tight end in open space.
Lou, when he plays Dime, mostly plays it from man alignments. Size on size, speed on speed. He might not necessarily play man— although he certainly likes to— but he will line up that way most of the time.
They have done it a lot of different ways in Cincinnati, using a larger corner or a third safety to cover the TE. That gives them a longer athlete who can cover a tight end throughout the remainder of a rep.
Bottom Line
Between 5-2 fronts and an increase in Nickel defense, it’s not surprising the Colts haven’t been overly aggressive in pursuing a third linebacker.
It remains to be seen how the defensive back room shapes up. Outside of Kenny Moore, Charvarious Ward, Cam Bynum, and Nick Cross, the rest of the room will have to compete earn a role. That will largely affect who will play on the field in Dime, how the Colts might gameplan for various opponents, and even what roster moves they might make before Week 1.