INDIANAPOLIS – The easy part is pulling the plug on the Carson Wentz era after one season.
But, then what?
It’s easy to move on from Wentz or any player at a prime position, and there’s ample evidence that’s precisely what the Indianapolis Colts are going to do in the next month.
But, then who?
What’s your Plan B after Wentz is pushed out the door for the second time in a calendar year? Remember, he’s in Indy because the Philadelphia Eagles no longer valued the 2nd overall pick in the 2016 draft.
The player Frank Reich endorsed, Chris Ballard supported and Jim Irsay signed off on 12 months ago that led to the trade with the Eagles finds himself the epicenter of offseason speculation – Will he stay or will he go? – after a 2021 season that didn’t go as planned.
And that’s being generous.
At a quick glance, Wentz’s first season with the Colts was a success. It’s rare when a quarterback with 27 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 94.6 passer rating that ranks 13th among qualifying QBs is subject to so much scrutiny and scorn.
But a deeper dive reveals one of the reasons Ballard, Reich and Irsay are exploring every avenue at upgrading their most influential position.
First, Wentz wasn’t able to do what top-tier quarterbacks are required to do, and that’s make the necessary plays at critical times and deliver his team to the playoffs. The Colts were 9-6 and had roughly a 98% chance of reaching the postseason with two weeks remaining, then suffered a horrific collapse with closing losses to the Las Vegas Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars.
The numbers that are most pertinent for the dump-Wentz movement: 6.9 yards per attempt (22nd in the league) and 62.4% completion rate (25th). Over the final eight games, when the pressure mounted, he averaged 170.6 yards per game and 6.3 yards per attempt, and completed 61.1% of his passes. He passed for 185 yards or fewer in six of his last eight games.
Listen, there was plenty of blame to go around. How about the defense making a few critical stops when it mattered (Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, the Raiders)?
But to have wasted one of the greatest individual seasons in franchise history – Jonathan Taylor leading the NFL in rushing with a franchise-record 1,811 yards and total yards from scrimmage with 2,177 – was inexcusable.
In a world where the quarterback gets too much credit and too much blame, the sternest finger points at Wentz.
Deal with it.
And that’s what Irsay, Ballard and Reich are doing.
They’re trying to determine whether another offseason and training camp will translate into a better, more consistent Carson Wentz. They’re trying to determine if the investment and commitment made last offseason warrants further investment and commitment.
From a financial standpoint, $15 million of Wentz’s $22 million base salary is guaranteed whether he’s still on the roster or elsewhere. But an additional $7 million becomes guaranteed March 19, the third day of the new league year. He’s also due a $6.3 million roster bonus.
If it’s determined Wentz isn’t the answer going forward and barring a trade, the Colts will carry $15 million of Wentz’s salary as dead money against the 2022 cap. But they’ll realize roughly $13 million in cap savings.
But back to the point.
Then what?
Because as things now stand, there are few, if any, viable options.
There is no Peyton Manning waiting to be the focal point of a rebuild after a miserable 1997. And there’s no Andrew Luck around the corner to help carry the franchise back to respectability after a forgettable 2011.
The only quarterbacks on the roster – Sam Ehlinger and James Morgan – have yet to throw a pass in an NFL regular-season game.
Not only does it appear to be a lukewarm draft for quarterbacks, but the Colts sent their 1st rounder to the Eagles as part of the Wentz trade. Their first pick is in the second round, 47th overall.
And to complete what amounts to a perfect storm against the Colts, the veteran free agent market is hardly exciting: Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, Jamesis Winston, Teddy Bridgewater, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Fitzpatrick.
The Colts certainly would be interested if proven veterans become available – Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan – but the lack of a 1st-round pick in April limits their ability to come up with a strong package, unless they include a top-line player(s).
So again, it’s easy to move and would be understandable if the Colts jettison Wentz after one season.
But, then what?
If the Colts take the drastic step of admitting they made a mistake by acquiring Wentz and sever ties after one year, they’re basically saying they want anyone but Carson Wentz under center in 2022.