The biggest headline heading into the offseason program is who will take snaps for the Colts in 2025. We’ve heard about this competition since January, and now it’s finally here. And make no mistake, it will be discussed extensively. Narratives will run wild, analysts will race to plant their flag with a specific quarterback—but, honestly, much of their commentary won’t have much evidence attached to it.
Every quarterback’s story is unique, and these two are no exception. Anthony Richardson is heading into his third year in the NFL. Through his first two seasons, it hasn’t exactly gone according to plan. When the Colts drafted him, they knew there were going to be growing pains. But I don’t think they anticipated getting into a bidding war to sign a free-agent quarterback to compete for the starting role in his third year.
The biggest indictment of Anthony Richardson so far has been his inability to stay healthy. In the spring of 2023, it was “reps, reps, reps,” but with a season-ending shoulder injury, a hip injury, a concussion, and a back injury, that’s been hard to accomplish.
His on the field play has been way too sporadic. On one hand, he can make the plays that no other QB in the NFL can make. He can throw a ball 60 yards off his back foot, throw a dime in mid-air staring down the barrel of one-of the greatest pass rushers off all time in his face, and can run over DB’s at the goalline.
On the other hand, he struggles to make the plays that every other QB can make. Everyone points to completion percentage, but that’s not the best metric to measure QB play (story for another day). But nonetheless, there has been zero efficiency in the passing game. Passes will sail over receivers heads, or even worse, right into the hands of a defender. There also was a lack of confidence in his reads and decision making—especially when facing pressure.
This is not even mentioning the fact that he tapped himself out of a game—a move that was downplayed by the team, but unequivocally had its ramifications. And of course, there were the reports that that he was not working hard enough.
But through all the chaos— he’s still the team’s former number four overall pick. He’s the guy that Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen bet their jobs on. He’s the 23 year old player on his rookie contract with all the potential in the world. But as we know, potential gets you fired. The Colts needed more from him and they needed more from him right away.
Here comes Daniel Jones.
Daniel Jones has an equally complicated tenure in the NFL. It’s riddled with injuries, poor decision making, and an eventual benching—but also a strong 2022 season and a playoff win. The story has been complex, but it’s not written. After his release he spent the rest of the season in the Vikings QB room backing up Sam Darnold.
Indianapolis identified Daniel Jones for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, they finally had a second QB who can run the ball, a key component of their system. But more importantly, Daniel Jones is the perfect QB to come in and compete with Richardson. He can’t make the splash plays that Richardson can, but he does all the little things well— and he’ll have the opportunity to potentially do that with a very well constricted supporting cast. He has a high completion percentage, is very accurate in the short and intermediate parts of the field, and is by all accounts an extremely hard worker and leader.
Now this is me talking— but this competition on the surface is quite simple. This isn’t a real open competition, even if that’s the company line. Sure, they’re “open” to Daniel Jones starting the season. But at the end of the day, Anthony Richardson is competing against himself. If he competes to do all the little things well. In the meeting rooms, in the passing game, and in the locker room, then he will win this job. Tie goes to the former 4th overall pick that’s 23 years old and we gambled our jobs on. But if he can’t do that, then it wasn’t meant to be and Daniel Jones will get the nod. That’s no disrespect to Daniel Jones, whose story in the NFL is far from written, but it’s the reality. But it’s also not written in pen either. The Colts have made a change at QB once, and they’ll do it again.
So let’s talk about how this is actually going to work— knowing that past history as the best predictor of the future.
It’s worth noting that there isn’t a lot of precedent for a competition like this. You have a former top 5 pick in year 3 battling vs. a veteran the team signed in free agency.
OTA’s
History says from Wednesday onwards, we’re likely to see a reported “even split” of reps. But it’s also very likely that Daniel Jones starts out with the majority. The first reason is that Daniel Jones doesn’t have the live reps in this offense and with these WR’s that Anthony does. The second reason is perhaps that Anthony is competing against himself— it’s up to him to earn his job back.
At this time, nobody is likely going to win or lose much. Somebody might have a “good” or “bad” day. But in almost all of the open competitions in the past 10 years, almost all headed into training camp continuing to split reps.
Training Camp
Now it’s on. Pads are on and there is an environment that is closer to simulating something that you would see on Sundays. Historically, most of the QB competitions revolve around splitting first team reps. But eventually a decision has to be made.
Most QB competitions (2024 Las Vegas, 2023 Tampa, 2023 Indianapolis, among many others) will go by the day to start training camp. One day one starter will take the first team reps, then the other will. But this can’t go forever.
This is the fork in the road— because some teams will announce a starter prior to the preseason games, while others will wait until the third game.
This is usually where the competition is over for most rookie QBs. Sometimes a coaching staff, the Colts for example in 2023, want to see how their rookie QB looks vs. live game action as a final test, but it’s most likely decided before then.
For veterans, the road has historically continued. 2023 Tampa, 2024 Pittsburgh, and 2024 Las Vegas all announced that one QB would start each preseason game and by the third game they’d make a decision.
Past the start of training camp there’s not a lot you can predict—which is a great thing. You never want to start a competition with the end in mind, or else you’re wasting everyone’s time. For all we know one of the QB’s could be unplayable and the locker room has already made its mind up. At that point the Colts could be quick to name their starter given the injury history of both QBs.
There’s a decent correlation between QB’s who start the first preseason game, and the QB who actually wins the job. Anthony Richardson in 2023, Baker Mayfield in 2023, Bo Nix in 2024, Geno Smith in 2022, Baker Mayfield in 2022, etc.
Whoever starts that first game could be telling for Indianapolis. By this point it may or may not be clear who the starter is. Usually the locker room knows even if they try to hide it. At this point you hope someone has separated themselves.
But what’s important to remember is that this competition is not over after mid-August. The reality is that these are two QB’s who have struggled to stay healthy and an organization that is not tied to either of these QB’s past this year. They’ve made a change in the middle of the season, and they’ll do it again.