Deja vu, I have been in this place before
This is a rant/discussion article, not an analysis one. At this stage in the offseason there is not much else we can do. I am very happy to discuss (politely or not) with anyone in the comments and will try and get back to everyone.
There seems to be a vicious cycle repeating itself over and over again ever since Anthony Richardson was drafted with the 4th overall pick of the 2023 NFL draft. Needs playing time and practice reps to reach his full potential as he is still raw -> Cannot stay on the field because of injuries -> When he does play he is still raw and it shows a lot, fans defend him saying he needs more playing time, and back to square one. What can the team do when there is seemingly no reasonable path for their young quarterback to become that franchise cornerstone to lead the team for the next decade?
Sometimes rookie quarterbacks suffer from unreasonable expectations, poor supporting casts, or mediocre coaching. That has not been the case at all with the Indianapolis Colts and Richardson. As a small market team the national spotlight and scrutiny was never too focused on AR, he has a relatively talented supporting cast, one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and Shane Steichen is a solid head-coach. This is not a case where a change of scenery could help him, as I doubt there is a better landing spot for a young quarterback in today’s NFL than Indy is right now. There is a chance that he overcomes this new injury and is ready for training camp, but with his track record if I had to bet the O/U on games started by Richardson this season I would just close my eyes and bet on the under. Daniel Jones and rookie Riley Leonard are intriguing options. Now I am not saying good or bad, because last time I said that I would like to see Daniel Jones as the starter people where reacting like I claimed he was the second coming of Joe Montana suiting up for the team. I am saying intriguing. One could argue that DJ never got an honest shot in New York, and Riley Leonard has shown flashes for Notre Dame. We will probably see the two of them starting at one point or another next season, as currently my base case scenario includes Anthony Richardson not suiting up for more than ten games, and the Colts wanting to check out what they have in Riley Leonard.
At this point in the offseason though, there is no telling how the quarterback situation will unfold for the Colts, but my gut tells me that the long term answer for the team is just not on the roster right now. With perhaps the best quarterback class in recent memory coming up, there is a decent chance that the Colts are picking another signal caller next April. This is not an article about that draft class, but you have Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik, Drew Allar, Garrett Nussmeier, and Sam Leavitt as potential first round picks, and if this season goes south, you will have a new owner, and most likely a new GM/HC combo, when that happens usually they want their guy at quarterback, not the one from the previous tenure. The Irsay heirs might not be as tolerant as their late father was, and perhaps will not want to be stuck in the Jeff Fisher purgatory the Colts have been the last three seasons. Changes will definitely be there if this team does not make the playoffs this season.
Going back to the first day of the offseason, as mentioned, I was cautiously optimistic regarding the team. Giving Richardson a full offseason to get those reps in, replacing a defensive coordinator that was not working, some solid free-agent signings to help shore up the defense, and then finally managing to get the best tight end of the class in Tyler Warren, upgrading what was the most glaring hole on the roster. Richardson was about to finally get that healthy offseason to fully focus on refining his game, he was reportedly taking ir “very seriously” (since when is that something to praise someone for, I mean it’s your job…), and working with some recognizable coaches. That shoulder injury just throws it all away, it’s the final straw, and this franchise does not have the best record with quarterbacks suffering offseason injuries. On a vacuum, this seems like an overreaction, just a minor offseason injury, one that did not even require surgery, but for this team, and for this quarterback, this just seems like too much.
So, it is purgatory once again for the Colts. We will probably get enough wins that we will not be picking in the top 10, but I think our playoff chances at this point are drastically slim. This is the NFL, where everything is subject to change, but things do not usually go surprisingly right for this team, when the unexpected happens, it tends to be against us.