INDIANAPOLIS – Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Sunday meeting with the Atlanta Falcons at Olympic Stadium in Berlin, Germany.
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m.
- Broadcast: FOX59.
- Spread: Colts by 6½.
History lesson, Part I
This is one of those series the Colts have dominated. They own a 15-3 overall advantage. The Falcons won the most recent meeting – 29-10 in 2023 in Atlanta – but the Colts have won five of the last seven. The lopsided nature of the series is a result of the Colts – Baltimore and Indy – winning the first 10 meetings.
History lesson, Part II
Behind late owner Jim Irsay, the Colts have embraced the NFL’s international series and global outreach effort. Sunday marks their third overseas experience in the regular season. They lost to Jacksonville in London in 2016 and defeated New England in Frankfurt in 2023.
During the preseason, the Colts played games in Mexico City (2000), Tokyo (2005) and Toronto (2010).
Playoff picture
Despite their mistake-filled loss at Pittsburgh last Sunday, the 7-2 Colts hold the No. 2 seed in the AFC behind 8-2 Denver and ahead of 7-2 New England. Indy gets the nod over the Patriots based on a better conference record (6-1 versus 4-2). In the AFC South, the Colts are ahead of 5-3 Jacksonville and 3-5 Houston. The Jags and C.J. Stroud-less (concussion) Texans meet Sunday in Houston.
Stat of note
The Colts have leaders in two major categories heading into week 10. Daniel Jones’ 2,404 passing yards are slightly ahead of Justin Herbert’s 2,390 and Jonathan Taylor’s 895 rushing yards are ahead of James Cook’s 867 (Buffalo has played one fewer game).
The last Colt to lead the NFL in rushing was Taylor in 2022 with a franchise-record 1,811 yards. The last one to lead the league in passing: Peyton Manning in 2003 (4,267 yards).
Regain identity
There was no mystery to the 27-20 loss to the Steelers. If a team is going to litter the field with six turnovers, it’s almost assuredly going to lose. The six giveaways tied an Indy-era record for carelessness and were the most since 2007. Since 2000, teams with at least six turnovers are 5-92-1.
Daniel Jones was sacked five times and responsible for five of the turnovers – three interceptions, two lost fumbles on strip-sacks – but let’s be honest. For the first time this season, his offensive line let him down. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann and right tackle Braden Smith weren’t strong enough on the edges and the interior wasn’t nearly firm enough to allow Jones to step up in the pocket.
Did the Steelers reveal a blueprint on how to slow down the NFL’s highest-scoring offense? Sure, as long as teams feature a T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.
The Colts need to get back to being who they were during their 7-1 start. Protect Jones, allow him to do damage early with quicker, timing throws and set up the run game.
Until proven otherwise, last weekend was an aberration. In their 7-1 start, the Colts allowed just nine sacks and were turnover-free in six games.
Lean on JT
Shane Steichen’s offensive approach is rooted in throwing to score and running to win, and that’s been the case thus far. Jones’ passes have accounted for roughly 60% of the offense in the first half, and that falls to 47% in the second half.
And it’s in the second half when Taylor has absolutely gone off. He’s averaged 4.5 yards per attempt in the first half, which mushrooms to 7.1 after the break. Even though he’s had slightly fewer attempts in the second half (74 to 83 in the first two quarters), Taylor has gotten loose for 525 yards in the third and fourth quarters. He wears down defenses and is always one handoff away from an explosive play.
At Pittsburgh, Taylor had just 16 touches – 14 rushes, including eight for 23 yards in the first half, and two receptions. That’s not enough, especially against better opponents. Yes, the Steelers created separation – 17-7 at the half, 24-7 early in the fourth quarter – but Taylor is too valuable to have such a light load.
Atlanta’s defense ranks No. 4 overall (282.5 yards per game) and is tied 13 in scoring (22.3). But it’s No. 23 in rushing yards allowed per game (124.4) and No. 20 in yards per attempt (4.4). It’s only allowed one back to crack the 100-yard mark: San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey (129 yards and two TDs on 24 attempts.
Feed off Sauce
It’s been a newsy few days for the Colts. Tuesday, they acquired an elite cornerback with the trade for Sauce Gardner. Friday, they announced their elite defensive tackle, DeForest Buckner, would be placed on the injured reserve list with a neck injury. He’s out for at least four games and the team is hopeful Buckner returns at some point.
The loss of Buckner is huge. He’s the defensive cornerstone and interior presence in Lou Anaruno’s defense. While he’s out, free-agent Neville Gallimore and Adetomiwa Adebawore must step up and be reliable sidekicks for Grover Stewart.
The addition of Gardner could help offset Buckner’s absence. If that is, the backend of the defense holds up and gives the defensive front – Laiatu Latu, Kwity Paye and rookie JT Tuimoloau – a split-second longer to get to quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Gardner’s first assignment likely is shadowing Falcons’ standout Drake London (47 receptions, 587 yards, five TDs). That would allow cornerback Jaylon Jones to concentrate on tight end Kyle Pitts (43, 382, one TD).
The Falcons offense is as middle of the road as it gets: 15th in total yards, passing yards and rushing yards. Strangely, it’s 28th in scoring (17.9) despite the star power of running back Bijan Robinson, London and Pitts.
Speaking of Robinson, the Colts must shine a spotlight on him from the opening kickoff. The 8th overall pick in the 2023 is one of the NFL’s brightest young stars. He ranks 10th in rushing (595 yards) and 3rd in total yards from scrimmage (1,058). Robinson is a major part of the pass game with 41 catches, 463 yards and two TDs on 52 targets.
And the winner is: Colts 27, Falcons 20.
It’s impossible to get a handle on the Falcons. Rough up the Vikings 22-6 in Minnesota and whip Buffalo 24-14 in Atlanta. Lay an egg at Carolina (a 30-0 loss) and find itself in a three-game losing streak that includes a 34-10 loss at home to the then-1- 7 Miami Dolphins.
But this one should be about the Colts proving the stumble in Pittsburgh was a one-off. They need a bounce-back against the Falcons heading into their bye. When they get back to work, the second half of the schedule is challenging, starting with the Nov. 23 trip to Kansas City.
Find a way.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.