Tomorrow is the most important day of the off-season, and the most entertaining one too, as the NFL Draft kicks off. The Colts have the #14 pick, and there are plenty of scenarios that will unfold as the picks move on. We will be taking a look at them and what odds I (arbitrarely) assing them.
Pick Tyler Warren at #14 – 35%
The Colts have an obvious need at tight end, that is old news at this point, one that even Ballard mentioned at the pre-draft presser. The argument can be made that the conference is only smoke and mirrors, that Ballard would not give up his draft strategy to the media, but the need is just so glaring that there is no point in trying to hide it. The Colts have lacked a proper tight end since Jack Doyle retired, and this is a great class to try and find the next one.
The best tight end on the board is Penn State’s Tyler Warren. He was the most productive tight end on the country last season, and while his ceiling is not as high as someone like Brock Bowers, he still brings a lot to the table. Prototypical size, plenty of experience, ability to make plays all over the field, safe hands, can break tackles. There is just not much more you can ask from a tight end, and the only way I see he is not a Colt is if he gets picked up before.
Trade down to get extra picks – 15%
If Warren is gone by #14, then I can easily picture Ballard trading down and getting extra picks, as the strength of this draft class is reportedly in the 20-80 range. In this scenario a team that picks on the later stages of the first round gives up an extra second to move up, and in the later stages of the first round there are several defensive playmakers that could really help the roster. Thinking about guys like James Pearce Jr., Jalon Walker, Tyleik Williams, Nic Scourton are mocked to be in that range. The extra second means that the Colts could try and target a tight end like Elijah Arroyo, Mason Taylor, or Terrance Ferguson, and with the extra second round pick they can get extra help on the defense with guys like Demetrius Knight Jr., Carson Schwesinger, Xavier Watts, or Nick Emmanwori. Perhaps even Michigan’s tight end Colston Loveland is there later in the first and the Colts get him.
Pick Colston Loveland at #14 – 15%
How will the rest of the league value the tight end position? There are some mocks that have Tyler Warren going in the top 5, while some have him falling all the way to the Colts. Of course, Draft night brings a lot of uncertainty to the table, and if Warren does go in the top 5 then there is a real chance that the Colts have to settle for Colston Loveland.
The word “settle” does not do Loveland justice, as he is a great player on his own, but does not have the same level of production Warren has. He does offer more athleticism and big-play potential, and a massive catch radius will help him a lot with a volatile quarterback like Anthony Richardson throwing him the ball. While I prefer Warren, I would not be displeased if we leave the first round with Loveland as the future tight end of the Indianapolis Colts.
Pick a defensive player at #14 – 25%
There is the chance that Ballard’s talk about tight ends was in fact smoke and mirrors, and that he thinks a healthy Jelani Woods, plus another later round pick, are more than enough to cover the position. That option leaves the Colts with some decent options that could realistically be available at #14. You have your linebacker for the next 12 years in Alabama’s Jihaad Campbell, a shutdown cornerback in Michigan’s Will Johnson to help take the secondary to the next level, an insanely productive pass-rusher in Marshall’s Mike Green, or a massive interior defender in Michigan’s Kenneth Grant. All of those players would immediately improve the defense and most likely start from day one.
Trade up to get Tyler Warren – 5%
Ballard has never traded up in the first round of the draft, as his MO so far has been more trading back and getting more draft picks, but his back is against the wall right now, and if he does not deliver instant results next season then he will not be the general manager to enjoy the success of those extra draft picks. With that in mind, the option exists that Ballard trades up to make sure he does get Tyler Warren and with that the final piece of the offense. The cost to trade up to the 7-11 range will probably be the Colts’ second round pick in this draft on the more expensive side, or two third rounders on the cheaper side. If the Colts think of Warren as their surefire tight end of the future, and think that there is a decent chance he is not there at #14, then it makes a ton of sense to move up.
Pick offensive line at #14 – 4%
Will Fries left in free agency, and Braden Smith has struggled with injuries and personal issues the past couple of years. Assuming Tannor Bortolini takes over the starting center position, that still leaves some worries about the right side of the line. Matt Goncalves was solid in his rookie year, but even still the Colts are looking worryingly thin on the offensive line. #14 might be a little high to take a linemen considering how deep this class is at the guard position, but if the Colts do decide to go down that route there are some interesting players. NDSU’s Grey Zabel has played all along the line, offering some enticing versatility. Ohio State’s Josh Simmons has played well on both tackle positions. Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. has a ton of experience at left tackle, and the Colts could try to retrain him as a right tackle or perhaps even at guard. Then there is also the chance that either LSU’s Will Campbell or Mizzou’s Armand Membou slide and are available at #14.
Other – 1%
Having fairly covered the more realistic scenarios for the Colts on the first round, one has to leave room for the unexpected. What if Ashton Jeanty falls and the team is tempted to have a monster backfield with him and Jonathan Taylor? Or perhaps they decide to take another wide receiver, who knows they might even take a quarterback if Sanders is still there when they pick. The chance I assign those “dream” scenarios is the lowest possible though, but never 0%.