INDIANAPOLIS – Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Sunday meeting with the Pittsburgh Steelers in Acrisure Stadium.
- Kickoff: 1 p.m.
- Broadcast: CBS4.
- Spread: Colts by 3½.
History lesson
The Colts have won the last two meetings, but that comes with a caveat. Each has occurred at Lucas Oil Stadium. They’ve posted a win in Pittsburgh just once in more than half a century. The Colts have lost five straight and 12 of the last 13 in the Steel City. Indy’s last road win in the series: Nov. 9, 2008. Peyton Manning’s 17-yard touchdown pass to Dominic Rhodes with 3:04 remaining provided the winning margin in a 24-20 victory and the Dwight Freeney-led defense made it stand up. The only other successful business trip to Pittsburgh came in 1968.
The Steelers lead the overall series 26-8, which includes a 5-0 mark in the postseason and 17-2 in Pittsburgh.
Postseason picture
OK, we’re just approaching the mid-point of the season, but the Colts have done what they needed to do against a favorable early schedule, which is get off to a fast start. We thought 6-2 was very realistic if they got competent play at quarterback, and Daniel Jones has been much better than competent. But at an NFL-best 7-1, the Colts are positioned nicely for the final two-plus months. They’re the AFC’s No. 1 seed and hold a two-game lead over Jacksonville in the AFC South. According to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the Colts have a 97% chance to reach the postseason and an 86% chance to win the division.
Here’s where we remind everyone the last time the Colts reached the playoffs was 2020 and the last time they won the AFC South was 2014.
Make of it what you will
Advantage, Indy?
This shapes up as a mismatch. The Colts’ potent offense versus the Steelers’ porous defense. Indy’s offense ranks No. 1 in points (33.8), yards per game (385.3), yards per play (6.5) and points per possession (3.46), and No. 4 in converting third downs (45.4%). Pittsburgh counters with a defense that’s No. 21 in points allowed (24.1), No. 30 in yards per game (386.0), No. 24 in yards per play (5.6) and No. 24 in third downs (41.8%).
The Colts have scored at least 29 points in seven of eight games. The Steelers have allowed at least 31 points four times, including the past two weeks in losses to Green Bay (35-25) and Cincinnati (33-31). The 922 total yards Pittsburgh has allowed the past two weeks is the most since 1988.
To complicate matters for Pittsburgh, it’ll be without safeties DeShon Elliott (on IR with a knee), Jabrill Peppers and Chuck Clark, and backup linebacker Cole Holcomb.
Just keep it going
Sunday only is a statistical mismatch if Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and the rest of Steichen’s offense continue to focus on what they do, and not what the Steelers haven’t done.
They all harp on focus and details.
Jones’ strength has been pre-snap recognition, determining where the football should go and getting it out of his hand. He’s been sacked just 9 times, but should face Pittsburgh pressure from T.J. Watt, Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith. And Jones consistently has spread the football around while completing 71.2% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. Five players have been targeted at least 27 times and caught at least 18 passes for 206 yards.
Taylor has simply been the NFL’s best offensive player through the first two months. He leads the league in rushing attempts (143), rushing yards (850), total yards from scrimmage (1,056), rushing TDs (12), total TDs (14) and points (86). He has more TDs or matched the total of five teams.
The Steelers’ run defense has been middle of the road: No. 18 in yards per game (112.7) and No. 17 in yards per attempt (4.3).
Deal with Rodgers
It appears Aaron Rodgers’ offseason free-agent decision – the Steelers over the Minnesota Vikings – was spot on. After two unsatisfactory seasons with the New York Jets, the NFL’s oldest player (41) has tapped into a Fountain of Youth in Pittsburgh. He’s completing 68.2% of his passes for 1,489 yards and his 16 TD passes are tied for second-most in the league. His 104.4 passer rating is No. 8.
“One of the best to do it, for sure, of all time,’’ Steichen said. “Still can throw the crap out of it.’’
Even though he’s been sacked 12 times, including at least three times in three games, Rodgers still possesses enough mobility to avoid pressure and do damage outside the pocket. His release is one of the quickest in the league.
“His mobility at scrambling now isn’t how he was back in the day,’’ tackle DeForest Buckner said, “but he’s still really good in the pocket and evading the run. His pocket awareness is really up there.’’
Coordinator Lou Anarumo’s defense must get Rodgers out of his comfort zone. The Colts are tied-2nd with 10 interceptions and have 23 sacks, fifth-most. When the opportunity is there for Buckner, Kwity Paye and Laiatu Latu to bring down Rodgers, they must finish the play.
Failing that, Rodgers likely will make them pay by finding DK Metcalf (27 receptions, 461 yards, 5 TDs) or a member of his tight ends group: Jonnu Smith (22, 134, 2), Pat Freiermuth (16, 200, 2), 300-ish-pound Darnell Washington (9, 84, 1), Connor Heyward (2, 18, 1).
The return of cornerback Jaylon Jones, who’s missed the last seven games with a hamstring injury, should give Anarumo options in covering Metcalf or one of the tight ends.
Tight end reunion
Speaking of tight ends, there figures to be a catch-up moment Sunday involving a pair of former Penn State standouts. Warren was a red-shirt freshman at Penn State in 2020 when Freiermuth was emerging as one of the nation’s top tight ends.
Warren leaned on Freiermuth and two other former Penn State tight ends – Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson – as he prepared for the NFL Scouting Combine earlier this year. The Colts would add a versatile component to their offense by taking Warren with the 14th overall pick.
“I haven’t talked to him too much this year, but we stay in touch,’’ Warren said. “Every now and then, we’ll check in.
“But it’ll be cool to see him and say ‘What’s up?’’’
Warren has been everything the Colts expected, and more. His 492 yards are a team high and most among all tight ends, while his 13.3 average/catch ranks 4th. His 37 receptions rank 5th among tight ends and trail only Dwayne Allen (45) and Ken Dilger (42) in team history for the first eight games of a career.
The 6-6, 256-pounder is a wild card in Steichen’s offense. He’s lined up as a traditional tight end at the end of the line, worked out of the slot, split out wide and as a fullback.
The Steelers have had difficulty dealing with tight ends. Green Bay’s Tucker Kraft went off for 143 yards and two TDs on seven catches last week. In week 3, New England’s Hunter Henry had 90 yards and two TDs on two catches.
And the winner is: Colts 30, Steelers 27
Winning in Pittsburgh is another box this team needs to check. And it would behoove the Colts to get off to a fast start to help take the raucous, towel-waving fans out of it as much as possible. This isn’t going to be easy, but Indy should find a way against a Steelers outfit that might not be as good as its 4-3 record.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.