INDIANAPOLIS – Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Sunday meeting with the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA.
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m.
- Broadcast: CBS4.
- Spread: Chargers by 1½.
History lesson, Part I
The Chargers lead the overall series 20-11 and have won eight of the last 10. They won the most recent meeting 20-3 in Indy in week 16 of the unforgettable 2022 season. It was noteworthy only because the game marked Nick Foles’ first start for the Colts. And it was underwhelming: 17-of-29, 143 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, a 31.9 rating and seven sacks.
History lesson, Part II
The Daniel Jones-led offense has generated 194 points, the most in the first six games of a season in the Indy era. The record for the most points in the first seven games: 224 by the Peyton Manning-led offense in 2007.
It’s a matter of pressure
If not Sunday at SoFi, when? If not against a Chargers’ offensive line whose injuries rival the Colts’ cornerbacks room, when? If Indy’s front seven is unable to finally turn up the pressure and make life uncomfortable for Justin Herbert, is there any reason to believe it will at any point this season?
A few weeks after the Chargers made Rashawn Slater the highest-paid left tackle in the NFL ($114 million, $92 million guaranteed), the multiple Pro Bowler ruptured a patellar tendon during training camp. His replacement, Joe Alt, has missed the last two games and is doubtful for Sunday with an ankle injury. Trey Pipkins, who started the first five games at right tackle, will miss a second straight game with a knee injury.
Austin Declucus, a 2022 fourth-round pick of Houston, will make his fourth career start at left tackle and third straight with the Chargers. Bobby Hart, 31 and a 2015 seventh-round pick of the Giants, is in line for a second consecutive start at right tackle. It’ll be his third start since 2020.
Again, if the Colts’ edge rush mix of Laiatu Latu, Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis isn’t able to swarm and squeeze Herbert, shame on them.
Through six games, Indy’s pressure has been, well, not nearly good enough. We’re guessing you remember Jacoby Brissett passing for 320 yards and two TDs last week. Too often, he was able to avoid rushers who, once again, couldn’t finish plays. Brissett was hit 12 times on 46 drop-backs, but was sacked only twice, both times by Paye.
Herbert is one of the league’s premier QBs. He’s completing 67% of his passes for 1,493 yards, 10 TDs and four interceptions. But he’s been sacked 17 times, sixth-most in the league. Since being selected with the No. 6 overall pick in 2020, Herbert has been sacked 188 times in 85 games. Only three QBs have been sacked more over that stretch.
One more thing. When a Colt gets around Herbert, wrap him up and bring him down. The 6-6, 236-pounder is one of the best at staying upright long enough to deliver a pass.
Hold up on the back end
It’s always imperative for a pass rush to get to a prolific QB, but it’s compounded considering the makeup of Lou Anarumo’s secondary. Charvarius Ward will miss a second straight game with a concussion, which means the outside corners likely will be Mekhi Blackmon and undrafted rookie Johnathan Edwards. There’s no overstating the importance of nickel corner Kenny Moore II returning after missing three games with an Achilles injury, but he’ll probably be on a pitch count. Chris Lammons should help ease Moore’s workload in the slot.
Herbert can do serious damage if he’s allowed to go through his progressions and locate Keenan Allen (33 catches, 316 yards, three TDs), Ladd McConkey (28, 313, two), Quentin Johnston (26, 377, four) or rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden (15, 144)
Top rushers Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton are on IR, but Kimani Vidal gave the run game an unexpected boost in last week’s last-second win at Miami with 124 yards on 18 carries.
Remain diverse on offense
Being without Josh Downs (concussion) is a hit to the league’s top-scoring offense (32.3 ppg). He’s generated first downs on 15 of his 26 receptions. But much of Indy’s success can be traced to Daniel Jones’ ability to get everyone involved.
Rookie tight end Tyler Warren has been a Swiss Army knife with 307 receiving yards, including 198 yards after the catch. Both are the most by any tight end through six games. He has a TD in three straight games – two receiving, one rushing – which is the longest streak by a rookie tight end in club history and tied for the most in the NFL since at least 1970. Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce have combined for 39 catches, 512 yards and four TDs.
Shane Steichen and coordinator Jim Bob Cooter will be creative in filling Downs’ void in the slot, either with Warren, Pittman or kick returner Anthony Gould. AD Mitchell will be active after being a healthy scratch last week against Arizona, but any reps he gets should come on the outside.
With three-time All-Pro safety Derwin James Jr. bouncing around the secondary, the Chargers’ pass defense ranks No. 6 in yards per game (177.5) and No. 4 in yards per pass play (5.7). Opposing QBs have managed a 73.7 rating with just five TDs and six interceptions.
So, Jones needs to be on top of his game. It’s no coincidence the Colts are 4-0 when they don’t turn the ball over. Indy has only four giveaways and allowed a league-low 5 sacks.
Follow JT’s lead
It’s still so early in the season, but Jonathan Taylor should be a frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year. He leads the NFL in rushing attempts (115), rushing yards (603), rushing TDs (seven) and total TDs (eight). He’s rushed for at least 100 yards three times and has cracked triple digits in seven of his last 10.
Steichen’s approach is throw to score, run to win, which is why Jones and Taylor are such an effective tandem.
The Chargers’ defense ranks No. 7 overall (301.7) and is No. 13 in scoring (20.8), but it’s been vulnerable to the run. It’s allowing 124.2 yards per game (No. 21) and 5.0 per attempt (No. 28). In the past two games, the Chargers have yielded 111 yards and two TDs on 14 attempts to Washington’s Jacory Croskey-Merritt and 128 yards and two TDs on 16 attempts to Miami’s De’Von Achane.
And the winner is: Chargers 30, Colts 27.
We came so close to going with the road upset and won’t be the least bit surprised if the Colts return home a league-best 6-1. We really like the way Jones and the offense are hummin’. They scored at least 29 points in five of six games and generated TDs on 10 consecutive red-zone trips. But until Anarumo gets more from his pressure group up front and the cornerbacks regain their health, Indy is asking too much from its offense. The Colts were bailed out last Sunday against Arizona when the officials didn’t flag Lammons for mugging Trey McBride in the end zone on fourth-and-ballgame.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.