Trey Hendrickson is on the trade market; should the Colts take a swing at him?
Trey Hendrickson, star pass rusher of the Cincinnati Bengals, is publicly unhappy with his team and has asked for a new contract, otherwise he will not play for them in 2025. This has opened up many possibilities, most notably a trade that could involve the Indianapolis Colts. The question is: Can the Colts afford to trade for him and offer him a new contract?
Trade Price
Hendrickson’s trade price is tough to judge. He’s 30 years old and will be 31 in December. He is right in the middle of his prime with maybe only 2-3 above average or elite seasons left in him. Players like Khalil Mack, Kyle Van Noy, Za’Darius Smith, and even Julius Peppers back in the day have proven that you can produce at a very high level after the age of 30 and that good play can be found until around 33-34 before everyone experiences a big drop off. If that’s the case, then the Colts or team trading for Hendrickson could be getting 3-4 years of solid play from him. While that’s not worth a 1st round pick, that’s definitely worth a 2nd round pick and I believe that’s the price on him.
Current Season Cap Hit
Below is Hendrickson’s current contract and thanks to Over the Cap, we see that he is set to have a 18.66M cap hit for 2025.
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According to the NFLPA, the Colts have 24M in cap space. The current 51st contract (that would be bumped out of the Top 51) is 1.03M so taking on Hendrickon’s contract for this season would actually cost the Colts 17.6M and leave them with around 6.4M in cap space for this season. They can easily afford the contract for 2025.
Projected Contract Extension
The dealbreaker in all of this is the contract extension. Danielle Hunter signed a 1 year contract worth 35M. Maxx Crosby signed a 3 year extension worth 35M per year and Nick Bosa signed a 5 year extension worth 34M per year. With the exception of Myles Garrett at 40M per year, those three guys are essentially the upper echelon of pay. After them, there is a drop off to guys like Josh Allen-Hines, Brian Burns and TJ Watt. It’s worth noting that TJ Watt’s contract was signed in 2021, so adjusting for inflation he would be making around 38-39M per year, so best to ignore his contract as well.
While Trey Hendrickson has established himself as one of the best edge rushers, I don’t think many would consider him in the tier of Maxx Crosby and Nick Bosa and while Danielle Hunter is in that echelon in terms of his contract, he signed only a one year extension. So Hendrickson isn’t in the upper echelon of player but he’s above Allen-Hines and Burns so his contract will be somewhere in the middle, so if you price towards the middle of the two and adjust for future inflation of the cap, his contract extension should be around:
3 Years, $100,000,000 with $57,000,000 Guaranteed
Can the Colts afford the extension?
The short answer is yes, but it’s not as simple as that. The Colts have a projected 72M in cap space for next year, but the contract extensions of Bernhard Raimann, Nick Cross and potentially Alec Pierce to consider. If signed to extensions, those guys could account for 45M in cap space and even if backloaded a bit, that’s probably about 32M off the books, which leaves 40M in cap space. If Hendrickson’s first year of his 33M a year extension is around 28M, then that leaves the Colts with 12M in cap space, which nearly half will go to the draft class. They won’t have a lot of carry over room since Hendrickson’s 2025 contract year will eat up the large majority of the current cap space). The Colts could be sitting at 10-15M at most for next season if they keep those three players listed above and that would leave them somewhat thin to sign any free agents and very thin if they need to sign Anthony Richardson to a new contract.
However, what’s not mentioned is the reworking of some contracts, such as Michael Pittman Jr who is set to be on the books for 29M next season. So while it’s tighter than most would realize, it’s not impossible to make some moves to buy some space.
As mentioned above, the Colts can afford it, but the salary cap will get tight in a hurry. So the Colts can afford the deal, but is it worth taking on a star player for 3-4 seasons when your quarterback situation is still a big unknown?