AFC South QBs: A Look Back at My 2024 Predictions

Thanks to Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

---

My plan for the rest of the offseason is to write individual articles predicting 2025 performance for as many QBs as possible before the season starts. I’ll start with Colts’ opponents and then—time permitting—I’ll add as many known starters as I can. To kick off the series, I’ll first revisit the predictions I made at the beginning of last season, which were based on a numerical analysis of pre-2024 data.

---

Prediction 1: C.J. Stroud will have a big drop off from his rookie year production.

Specifically, I said his 2024 net yards per dropback (NY/d), which ranked third-best in 2023, would fall out of the top 10, and that his EPA per dropback (EPA/d) would drop below 12th. I was right on both counts—he had a drastic fall-off, ending up 26th in NY/d and 23rd in EPA/d.

My prediction was mainly based on 2 metrics from his 2023 season:

Yards After the Catch – YAC is driven by two main variables: passing depth and accuracy. Short, accurate passes typically generate much more YAC than deep or inaccurate throws. In Stroud’s rookie year, he had the second-longest average pass depth, yet the posted the ninth-highest average YAC. Now maybe a QB can sustain that if he is super accurate, but Stroud was 19th in Completion % Over Expected (cpoe), so accuracy was not a strength.

For 2024, I believed he would continue to throw deep, but that his YAC numbers would fall below league average — and I was right. In 2024, had the 12th-longest average depth of target and his YAC ranking dropped to 24th.

Deep Passing Success – When I removed all 20+ yard pass attempts from the 2023 data, Stroud’s numbers dropped outside of the top 10. In other words, his strong rookie year performance relied on great deep passing. He completed 50.8% of his throws of 20+ yards—an absurdly high number (league avg was 39%). He also threw zero interceptions on those passes.

A quarterback who is merely average at short passing, but excels at deep passing is often more lucky than skilled (see: 2024 Sam Darnold). I felt there was simply no way Stroud could continue that level of productionon on his deep passes—and he didn’t. In 2024, his completion percentage on deep passes dropped nearly 20 points to 31.3% (fifth-worst), and his interception rate rose from 0% to 9% (seventh-worst). He finished 30th in deep-ball EPA efficiency, which was an anchor on his overall efficiency.

Of course, other factors played a role—such as increased pressure from the 4th longest time to throw—but even a cursory look at the 2023 numbers suggested a likely decline. And 2025 isn’t looking that good for him either, but more on that in a later article.

---

Prediction 2: Will Levis will have a terrible year.

This was kind of a “yeah, well duh” prediction, but since I was covering the AFC South QBs, I was obligated to include it. Specifically, I predicted he’d finish as a bottom-10 quarterback in EPA per dropback (EPA/d) and Passing Success Rate (PSR). He ended up ranking dead last in both categories for 2024, so… yeah.

Two main numbers were at play here:

Opponent Defense: In 2023, he saw the eighth-easiest slate of passing defenses, and the basic probability suggested that his 2024 schedule would be tougher—and it was. In 2024, his opponents collectively ranked as the 12th-toughest pass defenses faced by any QB.

About his 2023 season, I wrote this:

Defenses played zone against him 81% of the time, daring him to beat them underneath, which he didn’t and unless he improves his 21st ranked accuracy (cpoe), he won’t beat them underneath this year either.

In 2024, he faced the 4th highest rate of zone defense and he ranked 24th in accuracy. He’s just not a guy to pick you apart underneath.

Reaction to Pressure: Pressure happens—but how a quarterback responds to it is what really matters. Levis gets rid of the ball quickly, which can be a positive, but when pressure arrives, his decision-making breaks down. In 2023, he ranked 23rd in scramble rate, 30th in throwaway rate, and 4th in sack rate. A quarterback’s response to pressure rarely changes, so if pressure remained an issue in 2024, it was likely that a high sack total would follow.

Heading into 2024, the Titans invested in their offensive line through both the draft and free agency. But offensive lines take time to develop chemistry, and there was little reason to expect an immediate turnaround. Their Pass Block Win Rate was basically unchanged—from 28th in 2023 to 27th in 2024—and Levis remained one of the most pressured QBs in 2024 (10th). And in the face of that pressure, he posted the highest sack rate in the league, taking a sack on 11.2% of his dropbacks.

Since the Titans drafted Cam Ward, I doubt I will be doing a 2025 prediction for Levis.

---

Prediction 3: Trevor Lawrence will be a top 10 QB

Well, I was pretty wrong on this one. Specifically, I said Lawrence would be in the top 10 in efficiency for EPA/d and PSR. His actual numbers ended up ranking 20th and 22nd, respectively.

Here was my reasoning at the time.

Opponent Defense: In 2023, Lawrence finished with decent efficiency numbers against the 5th hardest opponent passing defenses. So, it was likely he would face far easier opponents in 2024 and boost his already solid numbers. Right? Nope.

In 2024, Lawrence faced the seventh-toughest pass defenses in the league—slightly easier, but not by much. I was betting the probabilities and lost on an unlikely draw—it happens. In the past, Lawrence had found success throwing quick, short, accurate passes, and I expected a return to that against softer defenses. Instead, tough opponents took away the underneath routes, daring him to beat them over the top. He responded with the second-longest average pass distance and the fourth-most deep passing attempts (20+ yards). Unfortunately, he has never been a strong deep-ball passer, and his luck didn’t change last year. On throws of 20+ yards, he ranked 26th in touchdown rate and had the 12th-highest interception rate.

Turnovers: The second reason I thought Lawrence might do well was that in 2023, he had the fourth-highest turnover rate—but a large portion of those were fumbles, which are fluky (i.e., random). I expected his turnover rate to regress towards league average, and I was right—it dropped from 3.3% to 2.5% (56th percentile). However, that improvement wasn’t enough to offset his otherwise poor efficiency.

---

Anthony Richardson

I didn’t make a prediction for AR as he had no numbers to base anything on, but I did say that I would keep an eye on his accuracy (cpoe) and his abandoned rate (aa%) claiming that “If he is inaccurate and abandons the pass a lot, we’re in trouble”.

Well, as you already know, he was very inaccurate—ranking 32nd in CPOE and Cmp% and that simply has to improve if he is to be succesful.

However, even though he faced the 3rd most pressure, he had a decently low abandonment rate (52nd percentile in AA%), which is promising. When a quarterback abandons a pass, he can scramble, throw the ball away, or take a sack—and you’d prefer the outcomes in that order. Richardson’s numbers align with that hierarchy: he ranked 10th in scramble rate, 12th in throwaway rate, and 27th in sack rate, which is really promising. It suggests he’s making smart decisions under pressure.

Of course, one overall goal should be to reduce pressure. The O-Line obviously bears a lot fo that burden, but Richardson has the 8th longest time in pocket (tip), which isn’t helping the cause. That extended time certainly leads to long throws, but it comes at a cost in terms of increased pressure.

---

CONCLUSION

At the close of my prediction article, I wrote :

There are a lot of other predictions that I wanted to include (Russell Wilson will be horrible in Pittsburgh, Justin Herbert still won’t be a top 10 QB) . . .

I just want to go on record that despite the Steeler’s making the playoffs, Russell Wilson was indeed horrible (26th PSR, 22nd EPA/d) and Justin Herbert was yet again outside the top 10 in QB efficiency (18th PSR, 14th EPA/d). So, I’m counting those as correct predictions as well, which brings me up to 4 out 5 correct predictions for 2024! Note: yes, this is petty and childish, but also very important to me.

I really enjoy making these predictions, so I will get busy looking at the slate of QBs the Colts will face this coming season and start cranking out some articles.