And why they can’t.
Yes, yes, I know, I know, one game at a time. Purdue has a tough game on Friday against Gonzaga and then a possible matchup against a Tennessee team that Purdue has already faced on this year and would likely prefer not to meet again. But, with the Sweet 16 coming up to us on Friday it’s time to consider the fact that Purdue could finally break their long streak of failing to make it to the Final Four. If you’re a Purdue fan, and if you’re reading this you probably are, you know that it’s been since 1980 that Purdue has been there. That’s a long time. It was before I was even born and I’m one of the older folks around this here blog. But I truly believe that this year is the year that Purdue does it, and I’m gonna tell you why.
Zach Edey is the country’s best player
I’m not trying to be cute or clever. Zach Edey is the number one reason that this Purdue team can make the Final Four. He’s the best player in college basketball, for the second year in a row, and that’s not just me saying that as a homer. He’s going to be a back-to-back National Player of the Year. Edey is a matchup nightmare for every team in the country. You may be able to slow him down or to force him into some turnovers but you’re never gong to be able to truly stop him. He’s just too good with too many moves.
He has improved so much from last season with one of the main elements being his conditioning. He was always in good shape but this season, if need be, Purdue can run Edey out there for 35+ minutes. As we get closer and closer to the Final Four, much will continued to be asked of Zach Edey and I suspect he will answer the bell every single time.
Purdue’s Guards Have Greatly Improved
The knock on Purdue last year was that other than Edey they didn’t really have any proven pieces at the guard position that could alleviate the pressure around him. All teams truly needed to do was dare the Purdue guards to beat them and hope that they couldn’t. That proved to be the case in the NCAA Tournament against FDU as Purdue just didn’t have reliable enough shooters to win that game. This year is different though.
As of this writing, Purdue is the #1 three point shooting team in the country. It’s what makes their offense so difficult to stop. If you focus on Edey you are opening up more space for the shooters and if you try to stop the shooters you’ve got to contend with Edey. It’s a true pick your poison. The improvement of Braden Smith in all aspects of the game, especially his rebounding which has been so underrated this year, has raised the floor and the ceiling of this Purdue team. Add in the dynamic Lance Jones and you’ve got a mixture of talent and experience that Purdue simply didn’t have last year. Lest I forget, Fletcher Loyer has been much improved to close the season and has improved his defense from last year.
The Purdue bench has improved throughout the year
I know some might argue with this claim but I’m just arguing my point of view. Earlier in the year Purdue saw guys like Ethan Morton and Caleb Furst be two of the first three off the bench. I’m a big fan of both of these guys but it’s fair to say that they haven’t had the most productive years of their Purdue careers. That’s because Mason Gillis has continued to step up and become the ultimate glue guy. Lately though, it’s because of the emergence of Camden Heide and Myles Colvin. These two provide Purdue with improved shooting, improved athleticism, and not a huge drop off on the defensive end. Though it was tough going at times for the two young freshman, they’ve emerged as key contributors in this NCAA Tournament run.
Purdue fans have shown up
This might seem like me kissing up to our readers and fans, which sure, it is a bit, but the fact is that Purdue fans have shown up everywhere for Purdue this year. In Hawaii there was a large contingent of Purdue fans cheering on the team and they won the crowded field full of Sweet 16 teams. They’ve turned arenas into Mackey Arena over and over again this year and I expect that to continue in Detroit, and fingers crossed, Phoenix.
It’s not all sunshine and rainbows though. According to Draft Kings Sportsbook, Purdue is +260 to reach the Final Four, the third best odds. Which I suppose is good since four teams make it and Purdue has the best odds of their region. So, why wouldn’t Purdue reach the Final Four?
Turnovers and poor shooting return
It seems simple right? This is what everyone knows about Purdue and well basically every team in the country. When they lose, especially if you’re as talented as Purdue, it’s likely because you failed to take care of the basketball and you’ve shot poorly from three. In the first meeting between Purdue and Gonzaga Purdue didn’t shoot particularly well, just 23% compared with a 40% season average, but still found a way to win. You won’t always get that lucky.
Purdue has all the tools to reach the Final Four this year. All the pieces are in place, but there are two more games to go until we see if they truly can make it happen. I’d love to be celebrating a Final Four berth on Sunday in Detroit and I hope we can all celebrate it right here, together.
(Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See DraftKings.com/sportsbook for details.)