A familiar foe stands in the way of Purdue’s run to an Elite 8
The Purdue Boilermakers have headed to Detroit and will square off with a familiar foe when they tip off against the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Gonzaga, seeded fifth in the Midwest Regional, defeated McNeese in the round of 64 and then Kansas in the round of 32 on their path towards Detroit while Purdue had little problems with Grambling St. and Utah St. The two will face each other for the third time in two seasons as they have faced each other in early season tournaments that last two seasons with Purdue winning both of those games.
Let’s get straight into ‘The Three Pointer!’
1 | Use Your Depth Advantage
Gonzaga has altered their starting five and allocated minutes differently to feature three bigs in Ike, Watson, and Gregg. With that change, minutes have been allocated a bit differently but Gonzaga really only plays six guys meaningful lengths of minutes with their seventh getting 13 minutes per game. The issue for the Zags is what they have as their options deep on the bench for scoring and defensive purposes as compared to that of what Purdue has.
Purdue’s defensive focus is to funnel players into tough, contested mid-range jump shots and not foul doing so. So far this season, Purdue has averaged just 14 fouls per game as a team which places them 347th in the country. The 20.7 fouls that Purdue draws per game, mostly from Zach Edey, is one of the best rates in the country. What you eventually get in many games are bench players and deep reserve players (for Purdue that would be like Ethan Morton, Will Berg, and Brian Waddell) expected to come in a play against Purdue’s main lineup for extended minutes. This is how Purdue can just wear a team down methodically like a grindstone.
Gonzaga’s starting lineup does matchup up well with Purdue from a uniqueness standpoint and Loyer is going to have to leverage his offensive skillset to offset the liability on defense having to guard a much bigger player. However, Gonzaga is going to have to try and limit their own fouls which means they will likely rotate those three bigs to avoid foul trouble. If they don’t and Edey is able to draw them into a game where he gets to the free throw line frequently, it doesn’t bode well for the Bulldogs.
It’ll really come down to Edey and Purdue….
2 | Making Free Throws When Purdue Gets to the Line
We nearly saw the Illini give away a game they controlled from start to finish because they shot 15-29 against Iowa State. That’s a state that’ll get you beat when you get to this point in the season more often times than not. That’s also been a relative hole in Purdue’s game over the last several weeks. It is unfortunate but it really does fall heavily on the broad shoulder of Edey.
As mentioned above, Edey is going to draw fouls against Gonzaga’s big men unless they truly try to defend him straight up. If he does, he will likely score easily against a good but not great Gonzaga post defense. If he does draw fouls inside, Edey has got to convert those free opportunities and either draw Gonzaga into collapsing on him to free up shooters or just grind away a game with a death by a thousand cuts. Either way, Purdue can ill afford a night where Edey (and the other players as well) multiple front ends of 1 and 1’s and shoot less than 70% from the free throw line.
3 | Have a 2nd & 3rd Scoring Option
We all know Edey is going to get his points and rebounds. He is just that damn good and there may only be one true big man left in the tourney that I would think could really hang with him. Purdue’s success, as it has the last two seasons, comes down to Edey getting the support he needs to continue being effective inside. In the first half against Grambling, Purdue just didn’t get the necessary support but eventually the offense opened up in the second half as others began hitting shots. We all saw what can happen when those scoring options are there from the start for the Boilers against Utah State.
Against Utah State, Trey Kaufman-Renn flashed his ability after being very quiet offensively for most of the back half of the season. It should come as no surprise that when Purdue is getting that kind of game from Edey’s frontcourt partner, opponents have a tough time defending Purdue’s actions. If TKR can be effective like that on the glass and being there for quick dump passes from Edey inside on a high-low action, it actually makes Edey that much more effective preventing certain doubles an opponent can run at him.
The key though is likely going to be both Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones given Gonzaga’s triple big lineup that have featured lately. One of those guys is going to have a big man on them and they will need to leverage that matchup offensively by scoring in a multitude of ways. They’ll both have an advantage when they put the ball on the deck and can get to the rim to score but they’ll need to continue being the threats from outside that we know they can be.
The biggest factor alongside Edey though is likely Braden Smith. Smith is due for a good game offensively as he has struggled scoring over the last several games. His effectiveness in the offense as a scorer really elevates Purdue’s ability to put teams away but he doesn’t ‘have to’ score. Smith can still impact a game in a major way through his passing, court vision, and not turning the ball over.
And 1 | Turn the Ball Over 12 or Less Times
In the first matchup, Purdue turned the ball over 13 times yet still found a way to win that game. In fact, Purdue turned the ball over at least 13 times in each of their games in Maui with a high mark of 15 against the Tennessee Volunteers (that’s the second highest number on the season). On the season when Purdue has turned the ball over 13 or more times, the Boilers are 7-4. That may not seem like a bad percentage but that does account for all of Purdue’s losses up to this point in the season.
So far in the tourney, Purdue has kept themselves below 10 turnovers in each game with 10 against Grambling and 8 against Utah State. That kind of ball security makes playing against Purdue so incredibly difficult because of the efficiency Purdue’s offense operates on. When you add on Purdue’s rebounding ability and propensity to get to the free throw line to that, Purdue is just so hard to battle with for forty minutes.
As we have said time and again this season, Purdue can live with some turnovers from Edey and Smith because of the weight they carry throughout a game. Purdue just can’t afford bad turnovers from those two nor can they afford other guys with two or three turnovers as well. That has seemingly been a decreasing issue as the season has gone on as Purdue has turned it over thirteen or more times just three times in the last thirteen games (since February 1st).
If Purdue wants to control this game though, Edey and Smith ability to limit their turnovers is key though. In Purdue’s four losses this season, Edey has had at least three in each of those games with 6 coming against Ohio State and 4 against Wisconsin in the B1G Tourney. Smith, on the other hand, has had a tendency to be turnover prone with eight games this season of four or more turnovers. Again, Purdue can live with some turnovers from those two but it can’t afford a game at this stage in the season where it becomes a major issue. They have the talent to not turn it over at all but keeping it to under 5 between the two of them is realistic.
Players to Watch:
Graham Ike | #13 | Junior | Center | 6’9 245 | 16.4 Pts, 7.3 Reb, 0.9 Ast, 33% 3pt (5-15)
The anchor in the middle for Gonzaga, Ike has been trusted to really defend the post by himself without many double teams throughout the season. The WCC doesn’t have the quality of big men that Zach Edey and the B1G can throw at you on a night to night basis but that was the approach in the first matchup this season. He had 14 points in the first matchup but had four personal fouls and three turnovers. This is a matchup Edey has to win and could dominate.
Nolan Hickman | #1 | Junior | Guard | 6’2 185 | 13.9 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 2.7 Ast, 1.0 Blk, 41.8% 3pt (76-182)
Hickman is Gonzaga’s best all around scorer who is shooting above 40% from behind the arc with the most attempts on the team at 182 (the next closest is 105 by Ryan Nembhard). Hickman isn’t going to overwhelm anyone with his size at 6’2 and 185 pounds but he is a scorer having gone for 20 or more points five this this season. This may be Braden Smith’s job to defend as Lance Jones will likely defend point guard Ryan Nembhard.
Prediction:
At this point in the season, there are no easy games. Yes, Purdue has beaten Gonzaga once in each of the last two seasons but games in the NCAA Tourney mean something more than an early season game in a nice location right before Thanksgiving. Gonzaga is a wholly different team than the one that looked really bad at the middle part of the season and have gone to a triple big lineup and had success. That doesn’t mean that Purdue hasn’t evolved itself over the last several months.
Matt Painter has, with a bit of a slight of hand, altered the distribution of minutes away from Caleb Furst and Ethan Morton and shortened the bench to a very defined eight players. That bench of Mason Gillis, Cam Heide, and Myles Colvin give a massive injection of size and athleticism without losing much scoring punch, if any at all. Bringing along those two slowly this year frustrated a lot of Purdue fans but I believe seeing the results not it is apparent that was the correct formula for those two players.
I don’t think Purdue will have an easy time with this game as Gonzaga is a program that has been here more than any other in the country over the last fifteen years. Purdue has also been the most consistent team in the country throughout the entire year and a consistent game is what they will need again to make another appearance in the Elite 8.
Zach has another monster game, Braden breaks out of his shell a bit offensively, and TKR provide the support alongside Edey with his new sense of confidence. A key will be in Gonzaga lets Purdue get into their offense without much pressure. That typically is not a very good idea.
Purdue: 83
Gonzaga: 76