The Three Pointer: Purdue (6) vs. USC (14)

The Boilers will meet the Trojans for the second time this season, this time in the B1G Tourney with a shot at Michigan waiting on Friday

The Purdue Boilermakers will begin their march into the NCAA Tourney with a second matchup of the season against the USC Trojans in the second round of the B1G Tourney. The Trojans won their first ever B1G Tourney game against 11th seeded Rutgers after pulling away in the second overtime 97-89. It was a game that USC seemed to have control of until the 16:00 minute mark of the second half when Rutgers went on an 11-0 run and then took a lead with under 5:00 minutes remaining.

In that first round game USC was led by Desmond Claude’s 28 points and that is an important factor considering he did not play in the first matchup against the Boilers inside Mackey Arena. The Trojans also got 24 points from Wesley Yates who scored 30 points in the first matchup without Claude and 23 points from Rashaun Agee. USC is not a very deep team with five players averaging 30 or more minutes per game but they are a talented group of scorers.

Purdue will enter the game with two first team All B1G players and the conference’s player of the year. Braden Smith has been masterful all season long averaging 16.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 8.8 assists, and 2.3 steals per game while Trey Kaufman-Renn very nearly led all scorers in conference games with 20.5 points per game (Nebraska’s Bryce Williams averaged 20.7). The Boilers will need to have the players around those two continue to make strides as they enter the ‘one and done’ portion of their schedule but can use the experience gained from the last two March runs to their advantage over most any others in the country.

Let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer.’

1 | Minimize the Turnovers to 11 or Fewer

Purdue has been markedly improved in this regard this season in most games with their big wins coming when they have limited their turnovers. Take the victory against Alabama when the Boilers turned in over just three times and limited the amount of times the Crimson Tide could get out into transition and fast break opportunities. That’s a part of the recipe for success as the Boilers head into tourney time.

You are always going to live with the games where Smith has four or five turnovers because of the amount of weight he carries in handling the ball. What Purdue can’t have is the turnovers that lead to runs and easy buckets like what happened to start the second half at Indiana. Purdue also can’t have their supporting role players turning the ball over when they simply don’t have the ball in their hands all that often.

When the Boilers have limited their own turnovers to 11 or fewer, the Boilers are 18-5 with losses at Michigan, Auburn, OSU, at Illinois, and Wisconsin. When they are 12 or more they are just 3-5, marking one of the most profound statistics for the Boilermakers this season.

2 | Get the Ball Inside to TKR

USC has struggled all season with their defense but notably their interior defense inside the paint. Every Purdue fan knows the struggles that the defense has had stopping scoring on the inside with the Boilers ranking 344th out of 364 teams in 2pt scoring percentage at 56.2%. A lot of that has to do with Purdue’s lack of a rim protector and it would seem USC has a similar issue as well.

USC is the second worst in the B1G at interior defense as they rank 303rd in that same category, giving up 54.3%. USC averages just 3.3 blocks per game as well with no player averaging more than .7 (as a comparison, TKR averages just .3 to lead Purdue). This is a matchup where TKR will hold an even stronger advantage and can help loosen up the intense perimeter pressure than Musselman typically likes to employ in his defensive scheme.

TKR has been one of the elite low post scorers in the country this season and in the previous meeting against the Trojans he went 8-12 for 24 points along with 10 rebounds. If he can prove to be just as efficient and effective, USC is going to have to decide on getting carved up on the inside or loosening up the perimeter defense which Purdue has shown an ability to make opposing teams pay.

3 | Hit the Open Shots When Presented

Along with getting the ball into TKR, Purdue simply needs to hit the open shots when they get presented to them. TKR is going to require a heavy amount of influence because of USC’s lack of interior/paint defensive capabilities. That means those perimeter players are going to have to step up and hit the outside shots when they present themselves. Against UCLA and Rutgers, they did just that as the Boilers shot 29/58 (50%) in those two games from behind the arc.

That just didn’t happen against the Illini, even with TKR and Smith having big games. Everyone else went just 3/9 behind the arc while Smith himself went just 2/9. Purdue simply can’t afford poor shooting nights from their perimeter players with their lack of interior defensive capabilities to limit opponents into the low 70’s or even 60’s like they did the last two seasons with Edey. When Purdue shoots above 35% from behind the arc they are 14-4 but just 7-6 when at or below that mark.

4 | Turn the Trojans Over 12+ Times & Turn Them into Scores

This might be the most glaring aspect to what USC has struggled with all season long. USC ranks 223rd in turnover percentage according to Kenpom while averaging 12.4 turnovers per game. For the season, USC is just 6-9 in games where they turned the ball over 12 or more times while going 10-7 when they turn it over 11 or fewer times. It’s been an issue for the Trojans all season long and one that came to the surface again in their game against Rutgers.

Against Rutgers, USC had 21 total turnovers that Rutgers was able to convert into 31 points. They had a similar issues against UCLA in their final game of the regular season where they had 20 total turnovers and the Bruins converted them into 37 points. In fact, the Trojans have given up an average of 16.6 points per game off their own turnovers.

That’s an important fact for a Purdue team that has been at their best defensively when they are able to turn their opponents over and making them pay with points of their own. Purdue is the second best B1G team at turning opponents over at 12.2 per game while leading the conference with 7.4 steals per game. Converting those into points have been a strength of this team as they average 19 points per game in conference games they have won while only scoring an average of 13 in losses.

When the Boilers are able to turn their opponents over 12 or more times, they are 11-3 on the season with their only losses coming to Ohio State, Penn State, and Texas A&M.

Players to Watch

Although Claude only made the honorable mention for the media this season, he is still as impactful of a player for any player in the B1G for his team. Without Claude, USC become a team that struggles immensely on both ends of the floor. With him, however, USC has the offensive capabilities to beat anyone as shown by their victory against Michigan State. Claude didn’t play in the first matchup against the Boilers and they struggled because of it. This matchup likely goes to CJ Cox, Myles Colvin, Gicarri Harris and even Cam Heide throughout the game to see who can have success.

NCAA Basketball: Big Ten Conference Tournament First Round-Rutgers vs USC

Yates is one of the better shooters in the B1G as he is averaging 44.1% from behind the arc on the season. When Claude was out against the Boilers, Yates had a game where Purdue could do little to stop him as he went for 30 points. He has that kind of scoring ability in him as he has seven total games of 20 or more points this season. In the first round, he supported Claude’s 28 points with 24 of his own. Initially, this one may go to Braden Smith but watch for CJ Cox, Myles Colvin, and Gicarri Harris to take their turns if he gets going.

Prediction

Hard to tell what may or may not happen as USC is definitely a really inconsistent team all season. With injuries and a struggle to adjust to Musselman in his first year, the Trojans had to win their first round game of the B1G Tourney to get to .500%. In that game, USC went into double overtime and their five starters all played 41 minutes or more. Given that game was the late night game, there was little that could be done for preparation and rest ahead of their late night game against Purdue. USC has a limited bench and that’ll come into play in this game.

Claude and Yates are two high level scorers but a quick turnaround on short rest may see their legs get tired as Purdue typically plays nine guys contributing minutes. They are also a team that plays into the hands of Purdue’s strength defensively with lots of turnovers and giving up points off those turnovers while being weak on the interior and in the post.

The Boilers largely had a disappointing end to the season going 2-5 over their last seven games to finish 6th in the B1G. That’s not a spot any of these guys wanted to be in as they expected to win another conference title. This team has typically responded when they have been pushed to prove themselves and they may have been looking a bit forward to this time of the year considering Loyer’s comments a few weeks ago.

This is the time when guards win games and Purdue has the very best in the country leading this team with one of the best post scorers in TKR. Purdue just needs the players around those two stars to play elite within their roles. If Purdue gets that, they can win the B1G Tourney title and make a deep run in the NCAA Tourney. I think that level of play Purdue fans saw that led Purdue to a #7 ranking and being considered for a 1 seed earlier in the season is right there again.

Braden Smith is masterful with a double-double in points and assists while TKR goes for 20 or more. This is a time for Heide, Harris, and Colvin to start ramping up their support and this is the game where they start to show it.

Purdue: 85
USC: 73