The Boilers will take on the Wolverines in the quarterfinals Friday night with an eye on a potential push for a 3 seed in the NCAA Tourney
The Purdue Boilermakers gutted out a physical win in their opening game of the B1G Tourney against newcomer USC 76-71 to set up a rubber match against the Michigan Wolverines. This will mark the third meeting between the two squads this year with both teams winning on their home floors. This time, however, a spot in the B1G Tourney Semifinals is on the line with the Boilers looking to try and elevate their tourney resume back into the realm of the three seed line.
Michigan is led by their dynamic big man duo, known as ‘Area 51.’ of Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf, and are sitting at 22-9 overall on the season. Over the last portion of the season, they have suffered a similar late season downward trend to the Boilers. The Wolverines have lost four of their last six games and have continued to play a dangerous game of losing big but winning close. In their last 14 games, Michigan has won their nine games by only an average of just 3.1 points per game with no margin larger than four while their 6 losses have come by an average of 14.3 points.
Purdue, as mentioned previously, has had a similar struggle with losing five of their last seven before their round one victory over USC. Purdue has also won 9 of their last 15 while dropping 6 games with a streak of four losses straight that started with a two point loss on the road at Michigan. In those fifteen games, the Boilers lost by an average of 7.6 points per game while winning by an average of 13.4 as well.
With a short turnaround, we’ll keep it quick in this installment of ‘The Three Pointer.’
1 | TKR Needs to Stay Out of Foul Trouble
More than anything this year, Purdue has struggled consistently when TKR has gone to the bench because of foul trouble. I do recognize that in some of those instances he is getting a really bad whistle like the one on his ‘moving screen’ against USC. Flat out, that wasn’t a foul and there have been other instances just like that. The issue is that Purdue suddenly becomes very one dimensional for extended periods when he can’t stay on the floor.
Outside of TKR, Purdue just doesn’t have a viable option on the interior to score off a lot of those actions that Smith excels at. Are there things PJ Thompson can do offensively to counter that? Of course, but not for long stretches as having TKR and Smith on the floor so often times means Purdue has the two best players on the floor. Smith is responsible for some of those silly fouls as he needs to really make sure TKR (and all the other bigs setting screens for him) get an opportunity to get set.
TKR has averaged 30.3 minutes per game this season but he is going to be needed at a higher rate now that we are in March. Purdue needs him for 32-34 minutes per game and the only way he can do that is staying out of foul trouble.
2 | Cut Off Access to the Lane & Force Midrange Jumpers
Even with what amounts to the worst interior defenses in the country in major college basketball outside of Iowa (thanks Hawkeyes), the Boilers are still rated as the 55th overall defense on Kenpom. That’s an astounding fact when you take into account Purdue is 341/356 teams in that regard along with being 355th in block percentage. The inability to stop opponents from scoring on the interior has been Purdue’s biggest weakness all season long and only was halted when they suddenly started generating turnovers at a higher rate in the middle part of the season.
The one positive so far this season has been Purdue’s ability to defend the three point line, which they rank 30th in the country at allowing just 30.7%. It would seem Purdue is very good at challenging three point shots and forcing tough looks but also struggling to recover and contain when opponents put the ball on the floor. This will get challenged heavily from a Michigan team that has a big man who is really good at putting the ball on the floor in Danny Wolf but Purdue is a unique program that is used to playing with and against a double big lineup over the course of many years.
If Purdue wants to not only beat Michigan but also make a big March run, they’ll have to be more sound defensively on the perimeter. USC has guys who simply play better in isolation type sets and that puts Purdue’s perimeter defenders on more of an island, something they simply aren’t good at. Funneling into help and rotations are a stop gap but ultimately it comes down to guys giving the highest level of effort to keep a guy in front of you and out of the lane. For reference, the final USC possession is evidence Purdue can do that. The issue is, will they?
3 | Force Turnovers to Get Easy Points and Momentum Shifts in Transition
Michigan continues to be one of the worst teams in the B1G at minimizing their own mistakes. The Wolverines average a league worst 14.4 turnovers per game while averaging 15 per game in their nine losses on the season. In those nine losses, opponents have scored an average of 17.9 points per game off turnovers which constitutes exactly 25% of the scoring on Michigan. That’s a weakness that opponents who are adept at generating steals and turnovers can leverage for their own benefit which is exactly what Purdue did in the first matchup.
In that first matchup, Purdue generated 22 turnovers and turned those into 29 total point which turned out to be almost 32% of their scoring. In conference games, the Boilers lead the league in steals per game at 7.4 with Braden Smith averaging 2.31 per game which lands him at 16th in the country and second in the B1G (PSU’s Ace Baldwin: 2.37).
Purdue will need to maximize their advantages from here on out if they want to achieve their goals and during that run in the middle part of the season their defense on the perimeter was disruptive and caused their opponents to be uncomfortable and to play a near perfect game offensively to win. Purdue needs to generate 14 or more turnovers in this one and score 18 or more points off those turnovers.
And 1 | Let Braden Cook
In the two games versus Michigan, the B1G’s Player of the Year had two of his better overall games of the season as he was on triple-double watch. Scoring 24 points in both games, Smith also averaged 6 rebounds and 8.5 assists. More than that, Smith turned the ball over a total of just one time through both games and had 4 steals in their first matchup. This is a matchup that just favors Smith as he is a clear cut above the guards that Michigan has to defend him.
The guards that Michigan does have are bigger but they struggled to contain Smith’s explosiveness off the dribble as he frequently was able to get to the rim and score or pass out to the wing when the defense collapsed. Smith is able to manipulate the defense in so many ways but when his teammates are knocking down open shots from the outside, it allows the full range of his playmaking to be showcased. That started to happen in the second half against USC and should hopefully continue, notably with Loyer and Heide continuing their hot shooting streak.
This is a game that favors Smith more than it does TKR with Michigan’s double big lineup of Goldin and Wolf but Smith can make things easier for TKR with a game where he is looking for his own shot and getting himself into the lane to make plays on two feet.
Players to Watch
Vladislav Goldin | #50 | Senior | Center | 7’1 240 | 16.7 Pts, 6.7 Reb, 1.2 Ast, 64.2% FG% (#1 in B1G)
Goldin was named a 1st (media) and 2nd (coaches) team player this season for the Wolverines after he followed head coach Dusty May from FAU last season. Goldin is one of the most efficient scorers in the country and has a capable three point shot as well. His ability to pass from the post position alongside Danny Wolf brings a unique look for the Wolverines. As big as he is, he isn’t an elite rim protector. Caleb Furst will draw this assignment first but don’t be surprised to see TKR, Burgess, and even Berg on this assignment.
Danny Wolf | #1 | Junior | Forward/Center | 7’0 255 | 12.9 Pts, 9.7 Reb, 3.7 Ast, 34.4% 3Pt (32/93)
Wolf is an impressive player as he nearly averages a double-double and may be one of the best passing big men in the entire country. When he is playing well, Michigan is a very good team. However, when he struggles or can’t stay on the floor because of foul issues, it really hamstrings the Wolverines. Wolf has the ability to take over a game. TKR will get the nod here but Heide, Furst, and Burgess will get a look as well.
Nimari Burnett | #4 | Senior | Guard | 6’4 195 | 9.9 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 1.4 Ast, 40.6% 3Pt (58/143)
The Wolverines best three point shooter (although Donaldson is just behind him at 38.4%), Burnett is a player who can heat up quickly and give opponents fits alongside the bigs in Wolf and Goldin. It was Loyer who picked up Burnett to start both games but Harris and Colvin will both get turns here as well.
Prediction
Well, this is a tough one considering how both teams ended the regular season and the fact that they split the two matchups already. It would also seem that both programs do things well in regards to the weaknesses of the other. For Purdue, that is struggling to defend the interior where Michigan is 11th in the country at field goal percentage inside the arc. For Michigan, they have struggled with turnovers all season and giving up points off of those while Purdue leads the conference in steals and has thrived at scoring off turnovers all season.
The biggest factor is going to be keeping TKR and Furst out of foul trouble and defending those two big men as much as possible. It seems as though Purdue has the advantage offensively at the guard positions when compared to Michigan and Purdue has three perimeter defenders in Colvin, Heide, and Harris they can bring off the bench to supplement the other end. It may all come down to TKR and Furst being able to play sound defense and TKR again taking advantage of his opportunities down low.
Purdue generates the turnovers it needs and Smith flirts with another triple double as the Boilers make their way to the semifinals against either Illinois or Maryland on Saturday. TKR seals the deal down the stretch just as he did against USC.
Purdue: 78
Michigan: 72