The Three Pointer: Purdue (21-9; 13-6) vs. Illinois (19-11; 11-8)

NCAA Basketball: Illinois at Rutgers — Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Boilers and Illini square up for the final regular season game for both programs

The Purdue Boilermakers have an opportunity to seal a double bye in the B1G Tourney by grabbing a victory in their final regular season game when they travel to Champaign to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Sitting at 13-6, the Boilers will need to grab one more victory to ensure they finish in the top four while the Illini are locked into a single bye with their record. Both programs have been two of the best in the B1G over the last half decade but the Boilers have won the last five meetings with the Boilers winning their second straight outright title in a victory in Champaign last season 77-71.

The Illini are led by fabulous freshman guard Kasparas Jakucionis, a Lithuanian player who has spent time playing professionally with FC Barcelona in Europe. Averaging 15.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, Kasparas has led an Illini team that has underachieved relative to what many preseason expectations were. A lot of that may come from a team that has seemingly experienced illnesses running from player to player throughout most of the conference season. Injuries have also been an issue for the Illini and that will carry over to this game with big man Morez Johnson being out with a wrist injury.

The Boilers, led by likely first team All B1G players Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn, have seemingly gotten themselves back on track following a four game skid that saw them lose their chance at a third straight B1G title. Smith, averaging 17.3 points, 8.6 assists, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.2 steals while shooting 39.6% from behind arc has also made him the frontrunner for B1G Player of the Year as well. The Boilers will need help from others to grab a victory at one of the more underrated environments in the country, notably shooting from Cam Heide, Myles Colvin, and Gicarri Harris.

For the final time in the regular season, let’s get into ‘The Three Pointer.’

1 | Hold the Illini to 33% or Below from Behind the Arc

There may not be a more clearly statistic about the Illini that will determine if they win or lose a game. When the Illini shoot 33% or below from behind the arc, the Illini are just 10-11 overall but when you remove games against lower level opponents like Oakland, Little Rock, and Maryland Eastern Shore that record drops to 7-11. The worst of these was their recent game against the Duke Blue Devils where the Illini shot just 2/26 in an embarrassing 110-67 loss.

When the Illini get over that 33% mark, the difference couldn’t be more different. In those nine games, the Illini are 9-0 and averaging 98.11 points per game which does include a 117 points effort against Chicago State and 109 against Eastern Illinois. In those games below 33%, however, Illinois is averaging 77.33 points per game which does include those non-conference games mentioned previously.

The best shooter for the Illini in conference games is Mercer transfer Jake Davis who is shooting 38.3% coming off the bench. The next would be Kasparas Jakucionis and Ben Humrichous at 33% for a team that is just 29.8% in those conference games. That ranks the Illini last in the B1G by almost 2% behind the Michigan Wolverines.

The Boilers are going to want to challenge three point shooters and force them into contested threes or difficult mid-range jumpers, much like they did against UCLA and Rutgers. The Illini are one of the better teams scoring inside the arc but especially when they get into the paint as they rank 21st in the country and 2nd in the conference at 2pt shooting percentage at 57%.

2 | Keep the Turnovers To A Minimum

This point had to be brought back into the fold with that four game skid but it has gotten itself corrected over the last two games. Purdue can live with Smith having 3 or 4 a game but can’t afford others to compound that into a game with 10 or more. That is especially true for a team like Illinois that ranks 18th in the country in adjusted tempo according to Kenpom (as a comparison, Purdue is 296th). Purdue does have experience playing a team that is very up tempo and having success as Alabama is ranked 1st in that regard, but this game is on the road versus being at home.

Purdue’s magic number will remain at 10 or less the rest of the season but more than that they can’t also be the really bad ones that lead to easy points and momentum swings. I’ll continue to point to have the second half of that game at Indiana started and how Purdue simply can’t afford swings like that if it wants to be successful heading into March Madness.

3 | Battle on the Boards

This is going to be the biggest battle for the Boilers against the Illini as this is the very best rebounding team in the B1G and the second best in the country. What the Illini do is simply throw every body at the rim on both sides of the floor at the glass in an effort dominate that part of the game because of their lack of effective shooting from behind the glass. This is something that doesn’t bode well for the Boilers as the numbers couldn’t be any more clear: Illini: 39.3; Purdue: 29.1. That 10 rebounding difference is something that could be the factor that determines this game.

Even when getting themselves back on track and through their long winning streak, the Boilers have struggled to really control the glass. Teams have had opportunities for second chance points and that factor alone may have cost the Boilers at least one of those losses in that four game skid.

The Boilers are going to have to be very intentional in how the box out on defense and prevent the Illini from getting second and third chances after an initial missed shot. More than that, the Boilers are going to have to be very efficient on the offensive end as they don’t have the dominant rebounder that can negate a team’s advantage like they had with Zach Edey. If they can simply keep the rebounding battle close, limit Illini offensive rebounds, and prevent second chance scoring opportunities. That’s a lot to ask but not outside of the realm of what Purdue is capable of doing.

And 1 | Get Support Outside of the Big Three

Against Rutgers it was clear what can happen when the three main cogs to the Purdue machine are playing at a high level. Smith and Loyer both his seven shots from behind the arc while TKR went 8-10 with the three scoring 62 points. However, when the other players can bring 38 total points with 30 of that coming from the bench Purdue becomes a team that can be a favorite to make a Final Four run. They just become so difficult to defend when those other players are hitting open shots, rebounding, and playing at an elite level in their role.

Those others shot a great 14-28 for 50% and it really forced the Scarlett Knights into confusion and bad rotations on defense. Defense has not been a strong suit for this Illini squad as they are giving up an average of 76.5 points per game within conference games and without their best interior defender and one of their better rebounders in Morez Johnson, it is going to be a difficult game for them if Purdue can get near that level of production from those outside of the Big Three.

The key should always be getting 20 points combined from the bench and the other two starters. If they can do that, opposing teams have to likely be more efficient than they have been all season because of the way Purdue is able to play.

Players to Watch

He has played at a near All B1G level all season and will find his way onto the All Freshman team. If it wasn’t for Derek Queen, who is having a first team B1G type season, there is a good chance he would be Freshman of the Year. The lengthy guard causes all sorts of matchup problems as he is able to get inside on shorter guards and score over the top of them. This likely goes to CJ Cox first but Harris and Colvin will take their turns as well.

With Morez Johnson being out, Ivisic is really the only viable option the Illini have inside. Carey Booth is a bigger body but he average only 5 minutes per game while Rill Riley is more of a wing than a power forward. If Ivisic gets into foul trouble and the Illini have to rely on Booth or Riley to defend TKR in the low post, it’ll force a lot of double teams inside that’ll open up the shooters on the outside. This goes to TKR first but with how Purdue defends, Furst will be on him as well.

Prediction

This is a tough one because, no matter what, the Illini are a tough out at home. It seems as though they are finally starting to get themselves on the other side of the illnesses that were running through their locker room but the loss of Morez Johnson shouldn’t be overlooked. Their three game skid was to really good teams in MSU, Wisconsin, and Duke with their victory against Michigan in their last game being a really good one that may have saved them from a play-in type game.

The Illini again have elite length that gives opponents issues on the glass and they have some guys who can be microwave type scorers in Riley, Gibbs-Lawhorn, and Tre White while Ben Humrichous is a consistent role player. This is a team that, when they play up to their ceiling, can compete with most anyone in the country. The issue is they just haven’t been able to reach it on a consistent and extended amount of time.

This will be a game where Purdue again has the two best players on the floor in Smith and TKR but it’ll come down to Loyer being able to hit shots with the role players being elite in their role. If they can do that the Boilers will win this game and solidify their double bye for the B1G Tourney. That extended time off couldn’t come at a better time for the Boilers.

Smith and TKR dominate from the outside and inside and Loyer stays aggressive in his shot selection while Heide and Colvin continue their elevation of their roles into March Madness. Purdue grabs an important win as they withstand a frantic Illini push in the final 4 minutes to hold on.

Purdue: 77
Illinois: 75