The Boilers and Panthers square off for their first ever meeting in what many have tabbed as an upset special
The Purdue Boilermakers will head to the NCAA Tourney as a four seed following a 22-11 regular season that saw them finish tied for 4th in the B1G. It also featured Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn selections to the First Team All B1G team while Smith was selected as the conference’s player of the year.
Purdue will square off against the regular season and conference tourney champions of the Big South, High Point. The Panthers went 29-5 and have won fourteen straight games, the second longest winning streak heading into the tournament. On the season the Panthers have one of the weakest schedules in the country with only one game coming against a Kenpom top-100 opponent and another three against opponents inside the top-150. In fact, High Point’s average opponent Kenpom rank of 220.8 on the season while their schedule is ranked 354th our of 364 teams in Division 1, according to WarrenNolan.com.
High Point is led by three scorers in double figures, notably a pair of senior guards in Kezza Giffa and D’maurian Williams. Alongside those guards is 7’ big man Juslin Bodo Bodo who averages just 5.3 points but grabs an impressive 8.4 rebounds and blocks 1.4 shots per game. As a whole, High Point is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country that shoots 49.4% from the field and 46.4% from behind the arc while also shooting 76.3% from the free throw line.
For the Boilermakers, they enter the first round matchup as the 7th best offense according to Kenpom and shooting 38.5% from behind the arc. However great the offense has continued to be this season, the defense has taken a massive step back due to a lack of rim protection but mainly to the lack of on ball defenders to keep offensive players in front of them. If the Boilers can return to the form they showed in the month of January, this is a team that can make a solid run in the NCAA Tourney.
Let’s get into our first round ‘Three Pointer.’
1 | Don’t Turn the Ball Over & Give High Point Transition Opportunities
This is one of the ways a higher seed can instantly make it difficult for themselves to win a game that they should. The turnover issues have been rather quiet this season but when they have popped up, they have really hurt the Boilers. In the last five games, Purdue has not turned the ball over more than nine times and have averaged just 7.8 per game. That’s a total that Purdue can live with, even if Purdue went 3-2 in that final five games. When the teams has turned the ball over 12 or more times this season, they are just 3-5 with their only wins coming against Marshall, Northern Kentucky, and Texas A&M-CC.
Although the Boilers haven’t had huge turnover problems, when they have they have seemingly snowballed into having an effect on other aspects of the game. Matt Painter has frequently spoken about not allowing missed shots and turnovers to spill over into things like defensive effort. All too often that has been a contributing factor to following what the staff wants their defensive scheme to look like. Some times it is simply effort but that has also been allowing teams to get into transition where Purdue isn’t good defensively.
The biggest key for Purdue in the tourney is going to be playing in the half court defensively. That can’t be done turning the ball over and allowing an opponent to gain an advantage where Purdue can ensure there shouldn’t be one.
2 | Cut Off the Lane With High Intensity and Effort in One on One Defensive Situations
The defensive effort over the last several weeks has been, shall we say, lacking. All too often what has happened is that players are either not following the defensive scheme due to a lack of focus or they are failing to keep their defensive assignment in front of them. Purdue has shown that ability to do those things but seemingly has played less connected and with detailed focus than they did when they went 11-1 in the middle of the B1G season.
High Point is going to try to attack the interior of Purdue’s defense by spreading the defense out with five players out onto the perimeter and then looking to attack the lane and look for cutters. This is very similar to what Wisconsin did to Purdue in their late season matchup and what has hurt Purdue over the course of the entire season.
Purdue is at a portion of the season where a sudden improvement isn’t likely to happen. However, Purdue has shown they can play good defense doing some very simple things. The biggest is likely simply keeping the ball in front of them when in one on one situations and preventing rotations as much as possible. That allows Purdue to jump into passing lanes to create disruption and ultimately steals.
3 | Keep TKR and Furst Out of Foul Trouble
For Purdue to really find themselves in a position of advantage against High Point, they simply can’t afford to have TKR and Furst in foul trouble. The officiating hasn’t always been very good but TKR and Furst have to understand early foul trouble hamstrings what Purdue is capable of doing. For example, having to play offense for defense with TKR and Furst 8 minutes into a game just isn’t advantageous for success.
Purdue has some overwhelming advantages against almost any other opponent it could face in the NCAA Tourney, none so much as TKR with the ball in his hands. Against High Point, they just don’t have a low post defender that should give him extended issues and he stands to have a very good game. That can only happen if he is playing a maximum amount of minutes that Painter needs from him.
Foul trouble for Furst puts Purdue in a different bind if he is in foul trouble, but a bind nonetheless. Furst allows Purdue’s coaching staff to defend teams in multiple ways and he is Purdue’s best low post defender. He also appears to be Purdue’s leader in hustle and enthusiasm as well. The senior post is only averaging 4.3 points and 3.6 rebounds, but when he has played well Purdue has won a high percentage of games. When Furst scores 6 or more points, Purdue is 9-2 and in those 9 wins he has also averaged 5.1 rebounds.
Purdue needs their starting frontcourt to stay on the court and not be hampered by foul trouble. The options behind them just have a huge drop off if they are needed for a major role.
And 1 | Win the Middle of the Game
Purdue has generally started games really well and been able to generate really solid starts this season. The issue has been the middle twenty minutes of games where Purdue seemingly allows a team to gain momentum on them heading into halftime and then coming out of halftime as well. Those twenty middle minutes are so incredibly important, especially in a single elimination format.
In games against OSU, Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and at Indiana, Purdue allowed momentum to shift during that ‘inner half’ and couldn’t recover. The most glaring of those instances were against OSU and Indiana where Purdue seemed to almost immediately trip over themselves starting the second half with it largely appearing to be a lack of focus and intensity. Those are seemingly the glaring issues for this Purdue squad.
Purdue is going to need to continue to play at a high level of detailed effort, especially defensively, if they want to not get upset against a lower seed…again.
Players to Watch
Kezza Giffa | #1 | Senior | Guard | 6-2 165 | 14.8 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 2.5 Ast, 31.2% 3pt
The primary ball handler and playmaker for the Panthers, Giffa is the engine that makes High Point go. Giffa is going to challenge on ball defenders in the halfcourt and will look to push the ball up court as quickly as possible to get points in transition whenever possible. CJ Cox, Myles Colvin, Braden Smith, and Gicarri Harris will all get a turn on Giffa throughout the game.
D’maurian Williams | #4 | Senior | Guard | 6-5 195 | 13.5 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.3 Ast, 39.8% 3pt
A lengthy guard who is a really good shooter from behind the arc, Williams can use his length to shoot over smaller guards but is also a good rebounder as well. Williams isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism but he can make shots if given too much space out to 6 feet beyond the arc. Loyer will get this first assignment but likely Colvin, Harris, and even Heide may get their turn to defend Williams.
Prediction
It seems most every talking head and sports radio show has tabbed this as an upset because of High Point’s efficient offense and Purdue’s struggles defensively over the last month and a half. There is nothing we can look towards at all during the season in High Point’s season to get a good gauge for how this team may look against a power 5 team of any level, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens in the first several minutes of this game.
Throughout the season, Purdue has seemingly been one of the better starting teams in the country. They have also enjoyed a lot of ‘kill shot’ runs where Purdue goes on 10+ point runs but seem to be unable to not give them up as well. If Purdue can come out and play with a focused effort on defense to be sound and within their scheme, they should have the ability to limit High Point’s efficient offense.
Offensively, High Point doesn’t have the defensive abilities to contain TKR and Smith in the pick and roll. They tend to play almost exclusively in drop coverage which allows Smith to operate freely. The fear is that pulling Bodo Bodo away from the paint puts High Point into a situation where they lack rim protection and would be giving up potential offensive rebounds. In the past, that has meant a LOT of opportunities for Smith and TKR and they have thrived in those opportunities.
What will make the difference between a performance where Purdue is able to win by double digits versus a slugfest isn’t just their defensive effort, it will come down to those players around TKR and Smith stepping up and hitting shots. Purdue needs to force the defense from High Point to collapse so Loyer, Heide, Colvin, Cox, and Harris get open opportunities. When they hit those shots like they did against Nebraska and Rutgers, they can hang with and beat anyone in the country. When they don’t, like they did against Michigan, Purdue has to rely on their defense and TKR and so far that hasn’t been a good formula.
I think this game will be decided in the middle twenty minutes of the game and the way Purdue approaches that will determine where it will go. Will they come out with an intense focus and will to show what they are capable of or will they seem to coast like they have at times.
Purdue: 87
High Point: 73