The Three Pointer: 4 Purdue vs. 1 Houston

The Boilers will look for an upset victory to make a third Elite 8 in the last six NCAA Tournaments

The Purdue Boilermakers have made their way to another Sweet Sixteen, this being the sixth time in the last nine NCAA Tournaments. They will face off against the Houston Cougars, the number one seed in the Midwest Region, who have played their way to a 32-4 record this season. The Cougars were placed as the third number one seed and were forced out of the South region due to Auburn being the overall number one seed. That’s why this game will be played in front of a very likely home crowd atmosphere for the Boilers in Indianapolis on Friday night.

Houston had a great season that saw them go 19-1 in the Big 12 conference with all four of their losses coming at just an average of just 3.5 points per game. Their four losses were to Auburn, Alabama, San Diego State, and Texas Tech, all four NCAA Tourney teams. They are led by LJ Cryer, a transfer from Baylor who won a national title there as a freshman in 2021, who is averaging 15.6 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and shooting 42.8% from behind the arc. The Cougars also have three other players averaging in double figures while shooting 39.8% from behind the arc as a team, good for second in the country.

The Boilers will enter the Sweet Sixteen appearing to play some of the best defense of the entire season after allowing only 62.5 points per game in the first two rounds. After struggling over the last quarter of the season, Purdue has seemingly found its’ stride defensively while maintaining their efficient offensive scoring. Led by National Player of the Year Finalist Braden Smith, the Boilers are averaging 77.7 points per game with Trey Kaufman-Renn leading the team averaging 20.3 points per game and Fletcher Loyer scoring 13.7 points per game while shooting 45.1% behind the arc.

Let’s get into a sweet version of ‘The Three Pointer.’

1 | Trey Kaufman-Renn & Braden Smith Have to Be Efficient on Offense

TKR and Smith have likely been the best guard-big man combo in the country this season. As a duo, they have averaged 36.3 points, 11 rebounds, and 10.7 assists but they likely need to increase the heavy lifting they have done while continuing to be efficient while doing so. Purdue can ill afford a game where it takes the duo 30+ shots combined to get to 40 points scored.

This is going to be a level of two man game that Houston hasn’t faced up to this point in the season. Houston is going to double TKR and force him to make the correct decisions to find shooters on the outside. That’s something he has done really well through the last two games and if Purdue can make the Cougars pay by hitting shots and forcing them to defend TKR in single coverage, he will have a massive game.

On the other side of that, Smith has to be able to simply make the right decision as he has shown he is capable of doing. Sometimes the best decision is being aggressive and hunting his shot when he has a mismatch but some times that’s also just getting the ball out of his hands to put the defense in rotations.

Purdue is going to need their best to be at their very best. These two have done that time and again this season when a lot of people assumed Purdue would have a massive fall off after Zach Edey left to the NBA. This is an opportunity to show just how wrong those assumptions were.

2 | Braden Smith and Purdue Have to Handle the Houston Defense

Houston is the best defensive team in the country according to Kenpom at an adjusted rate of 88.1. That’s really good but not overly intimidating given this Houston team would rank 38th defensively looking back to the 2010 season on Kenpom’s data. Yes, this Houston team is very, very good defensively with players who defend one on one at a high level while forcing bad decisions through through the double teams while rotating into help situations.

Houston wants to create a game with limited possessions where they feel their defense has the advantage in a game of efficiency where their three point shooters become an even bigger threat. Purdue dealt with a similar defense against McNeese State in the Round of 32 and followed what Matt Painter wanted: being fundamentally sound and making the extra pass to find open players.

Purdue needs to limit their turnovers to less than 10 while sharing the ball at an elite level. They’ve shown that capability when playing elite level teams this year. Can they do it again?

3 | Purdue Has to Defend the Three Point Line & Force Contested Jumpers

As poor as the defense has been at times this year inside, the Boilers have maintained a really good level of defense at the three point arc. What has led a big time turnaround in the last several games has just been their ability to keep ball handlers in front of them and not getting Purdue into really poor defensive rotations that leave them exposed.

Houston may have the best lineup of shooters at the 1-3 in the country with all three shooting above 40%. What makes these guys so difficult to defend is that they can largely all put the ball on the floor and get into the paint well enough to force opponents to over help. That then leads to Houston spraying out to their shooters and forcing opponents to play from behind in an efficiency type game, something most opponents just can’t do because they don’t have the shooters to contend themselves.

And 1 | Purdue Needs Production From their Furst, Cox, and the Bench

At times when Purdue has been at their best they have gotten big production from the guys other than Smith, TKR, and Loyer. In the first two games of the NCAA Tourney, Purdue got 26 points from those players against High Point and 29 points against McNeese State. Against Houston, they are going to need that level of production to help support their big three.

The first in this resurgence of late has been Cam Heide who, over the last 10 games, is shooting 12/19 (63.2%) from behind the arc and averaging nearly 4 rebounds per game. The 6’7 forward can be an X factor type of player with his size and athleticism against a front court for Houston that is one of the more physical ones in the country.

Along with Heide, Myles Colvin is going to be needed to continue his hot shooting that has found him at 37.2% over the last ten games. Colvin, like Heide, brings an added dimension of athleticism to the floor for the Boilers which may come in handy against a Houston defense that is the best in the country when they are playing in the halfcourt. Colvin and Heide, when combined with Smith, have shown an ability to get into transition for buckets at the rim and dump offs behind the arc.

What will likely set this game in favor of Purdue is going to be their freshman guards and their ability to provide high level contributions on both ends. Both Cox and Harris came into this season being some what known commodities on the defensive end but needing to show growth offensively. Both have shown an early ability to be offensive players but their contributions may need to be more defensive than offensive. Purdue just needs those freshman guards to be net positives, especially defensively.

Overall, Purdue needs support from their bench and role players offensively but their biggest contribution is going to be on the defensive end. They have got to keep Houston’s trip of guards in front of them and contest every single shot they can while also crashing the boards at an elite level. TKR, Smith, and Loyer may have enough between the three of them with minimal scoring from others to win this game IF everyone else can play their best defensive game of the season.

Players to Watch

LJ Cryer | #4 | Senior | Guard | 6-1 185 | 15.6 Pts, 2.2 Reb, 1.9 Ast, 42.8% 3pt

One of the nation’s best guards who has a national championship at Baylor under his belt, Cryer is the man who takes Houston from a good team to one of the country’s best. An elite shooter from behind the arc, Cryer is more Carsen Edwards than he is Braden Smith. CJ Cox, Myles Colvin, and Gicarri Harris will pull this assignment first.

Milos Uzan | #7 | Junior | Guard | 6-4 183 | 11.5 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 4.4 Ast, 43.7% 3pt

Houston doesn’t have a true point guard but Uzan is the player that seems to be the one that makes plays for everyone around him. He is much more known for his shooting ability behind the arc but has built into a good scoring piece inside the arc as well. Initially this likely goes to Fletcher Loyer but Colvin, Cox, Harris, and possibly even Heide get a turn here to defend Uzan.

J’Wan Roberts | #13 | Senior | Forward | 6-8 230 | 10.9 Pts, 6.3 Reb, 1.7 Ast, 0 3pt attempts

Roberts is not a threat to score from behind the arc as he has not taken a single three pointer all season. He is also Houston’s biggest player at 6’8 and 230 pounds. He will likely matchup directly with TKR on both sides of the ball but very well could also get Will Berg at times on him as the big Swede can wall up on the interior on defense and be a force on the glass at 7’2.

Prediction

This is where Purdue can make a statement on a season that has been good but not great. This is likely the best matchup against a one seed that Purdue could hope for considering Houston lacks overall height, something that has given Purdue issues all season both inside and on the perimeter. Houston also plays a very slow pace of basketball and that has played into Purdue’s favor this season as Purdue owns of the most efficient offenses in the country. This could very well become a game where the team that is able to maintain their efficiency the most throughout the game is going to win.

Purdue showed it has that capability against Alabama and Maryland this season that it can maintain an efficiency to their offense. That puts a ton of pressure on an opponent when they know there are going to be limited offensive opportunities to be perfect. Houston has as good of a three guard lineup with Cryer, Uzan, and Sharp that all shoot at an incredibly high percentage from behind the arc. That is, however ironically it might be, something Purdue has done very well defensively this season as they have allowed opponents to shoot 31% from behind the arc.

Houston is going to come at you in the classic Kelvin Sampson manner with in your face man to man defense that looks to disrupt your offensive flow and then run offense to generate good looks of their own. It’s a formula that has obviously worked well for them as they currently have the nation’s longest winning streak at 15 games. Can the Boilers do enough offensively to not suddenly find themselves fighting to keep within distance? That’s going to be the biggest question to answer as the game unfolds.

Try Kaufman-Renn is going to be the best low post scoring threat the Cougars have seen all year. He has shown up consistently all season and there is no reason to believe he can’t do it again. If Purdue can get big games from both TKR and Smith combining to score 40+ that are efficient while getting 20+ points in bench production like they have seen the previous two games, Purdue can 100% walk out of that arena with a chance at a Final Four on the line on Sunday evening.

Do I take the homer stance and say this is going to be a Purdue victory or the rationale one that says Purdue is just a step below this level of team this year? I’m going to have to go with the rationale part of my fandom and think Purdue loses in a tight one with LJ Cryer taking over late to get the Cougars into the Elite 8.

Houston: 76
Purdue: 70