Does the staff think Purdue will advance?
With the Purdue game coming up today it’s time to put the staff on record as to who they think will win the first round matchup between the High Point Panthers and of course of beloved Purdue Boilermakers.
Ledman:
It has to be Purdue. I’m tired of the talking heads including folks on CBS, NBC, ESPN, basically everywhere, taking High Point and pointing out that Purdue has a history of losing to double digit seeds. Well, Purdue has been a top 4 seed in 8 consecutive tournaments and everyone but one team will lose and it’s called March Madness for a reason. Upsets happen. Purdue has been involved in their fair share, but I don’t think this will be one of them.
There are things that worry me about this game. First, High Point has a highly ranked offense that can put plenty of points on the board. They don’t necessarily play fast, but they are efficient. Purdue has had their well documented struggles on defense this season. Second, this is a High Point team full of upperclassmen who know that this is their final shot. These are guys who have played at other higher level schools and moved down a level. It’s always worrisome to see that there’s clearly talent there.
All that aside, their defense is bad, yes I know FDU’s was also bad, but I think that Purdue won’t look past this team and will be ready. My hope is that Purdue punches them in the mouth to start the game and never looks back.
Purdue 92
High Point 72
Jed:
It seems most every talking head and sports radio show has tabbed this as an upset because of High Point’s efficient offense and Purdue’s struggles defensively over the last month and a half. There is nothing we can look towards at all during the season in High Point’s season to get a good gauge for how this team may look against a power 5 team of any level, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens in the first several minutes of this game.
Throughout the season, Purdue has seemingly been one of the better starting teams in the country. They have also enjoyed a lot of ‘kill shot’ runs where Purdue goes on 10+ point runs but seem to be unable to not give them up as well. If Purdue can come out and play with a focused effort on defense to be sound and within their scheme, they should have the ability to limit High Point’s efficient offense.
Offensively, High Point doesn’t have the defensive abilities to contain TKR and Smith in the pick and roll. They tend to play almost exclusively in drop coverage which allows Smith to operate freely. The fear is that pulling Bodo Bodo away from the paint puts High Point into a situation where they lack rim protection and would be giving up potential offensive rebounds. In the past, that has meant a LOT of opportunities for Smith and TKR and they have thrived in those opportunities.
What will make the difference between a performance where Purdue is able to win by double digits versus a slugfest isn’t just their defensive effort, it will come down to those players around TKR and Smith stepping up and hitting shots. Purdue needs to force the defense from High Point to collapse so Loyer, Heide, Colvin, Cox, and Harris get open opportunities. When they hit those shots like they did against Nebraska and Rutgers, they can hang with and beat anyone in the country. When they don’t, like they did against Michigan, Purdue has to rely on their defense and TKR and so far that hasn’t been a good formula.
I think this game will be decided in the middle twenty minutes of the game and the way Purdue approaches that will determine where it will go. Will they come out with an intense focus and will to show what they are capable of or will they seem to coast like they have at times.
Purdue: 87
High Point: 73
Ryan:
As I put in the preview and on the Boiler Alert Podcast, Purdue is the more talented team here but High Point is experienced and can score in a hurry. I like Purdue’s understanding that no team should be taken for granted considering what happened just two tournaments ago. Give me
Purdue 84
High Point 72
Drew:
Purdue’s offense might be a little one dimensional at times, but that one dimension is really good. Braden and TKR show why they are two of the best players on the tournament and Myles Colvin provides points off the bench. Purdue moves on.
Purdue 77
High Point 64
Kyle
Seemingly, this look like an even matchup on paper. Two high scoring offenses with lackluster defensive production.
But HPU has one of the worst strength of schedules in the country.
They have not played anyone as talented as TKR and Braden Smith, and I think that duo will have a day against one of the worst defenses we have seen to date.
Purdue 82
HPU 70
Chase:
High Point shoots it exceptionally well from 3. This is a scary prospect come tourney time, but do you want to know what High Point’s record is against Q1 opponents this season?
0-0.
This team hasn’t been tested at all this season. That, combined with the high rates of drop coverage on ball-screens means Purdue will feast offensively. If High Point isn’t hitting shots from deep early, this will get ugly.
Final score:
Boilers 91
High Point 64