Purdue’s 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

Star here to see some preview of Purdue’s Thursday matchup with High Point and beyond.

First Round Preview

Purdue has known it will be dancing into the NCAA Tournament for some time now but it finally knows it’s first opponent in this year’s tournament: High Point University. The High Point Panthers, located just outside of Greensboro, North Carolina, were the top dogs in the Big South Conference, winning the regular season by 3 games over both Winthrop and UNC Asheville. The Panthers also swept through the Big South Tournament, beating Gardner-Webb, Radford, and Winthrop. Overall, the Panthers have won 14 straight games, all against Big South foes. Outside of the conference, HPU has 3 losses: Missouri State in the Cayman Islands Classic, at UNC Greensboro, and their only home loss to Norfolk State. Oddly enough, looking at the NET, High Point did not play a single Q1 game this season and only had one Q2 game, a win at home against North Texas (their non-conference strength of schedule was ranked 330th).

The Panthers currently sit at 82nd in the NET rankings, just 5 spots behind Rutgers, the closest Purdue opponent. HPU is built on offense, scoring the 19th most points per game in the country while owning the 25th best offensive rating on KenPom (2 slots better than Michigan State). Where they lack, however, is defense as they rate as the 227th best defensive rating out of 364 teams (the worst B10 team is Iowa at 173rd). For reference, Purdue is rated 7th on offense and 63rd on defense. Also from KenPom, High Point ranks 222nd nationally in tempo, so they play slightly faster than the Boilermakers who sit at 297th nationally. Quality shots are important for both of these teams and it shows in High Point’s 7th best field goal percentage in the country (17th in 2 point percentage and 63rd in 3 point percentage).

High follows the mold of smaller conference teams to make the tournament in that they have several upperclassmen leaders on the team that play at a high level. Of the top 10 players on the team in terms of minutes, all but one are upperclassmen. That 1 is sophomore Juslin Bodo Bodo, the 7’0 tall Sophomore that leads the team in rebounds and blocks. The likely starting 5 for this squad are: Sr guard Kezza Giffa, Sr guard D’maurian Williams, Sr guard Chase Johnston, Jr forward Kimani Hamilton, and So forward Juslin Boda Boda. The starting 5 averages 54.0 points, 20.8 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game. All but Boda Boda shoot the 3 better than 30% while Johnston shoots it at a blistering 43.5% (70/161 on the season). Coming off the bench for the Panthers is most notably Sr guard Bobby Pettiford who actually scored the 4th most on the team at 8.9 points per game. Pettiford, a transfer from East Carolina and Kansas, was actually on the Kansas team that won the NCAA tournament in 2022, though he only played in 14 games that season. He is one of several players on this High Point team that started at P5 schools and made their way to High Point, North Carolina. D’maurian Williams previously played 2 seasons at Texas Tech, Kimani Hamilton played at Mississippi state, and Jr guard Abdoulaye Thiam was previously at Minnesota.

All of this preview is to say that Purdue will not get an easy pass in game one the tournament. Our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook currently have Purdue as a 8.5 point favorite and at -375 on the moneyline. And as much as Purdue has struggled in recent games, I think they are still the better team. Can this High Point team exploit some of Purdue’s weaknesses if they are not careful? Absolutely, but Purdue seemed to get the monkey off its back last season on its run to the championship game and hopefully, they will remain focused to put away the 13 seeded Panthers. I’ll take the Boilermakers in this one and to cover. Purdue 84 – High Point 72

Path to the Final Four

Since Purdue made the National Championship Game last season, of course we are hungry for another Final Four. This year, that run would also go through the Midwest Region.

In the Midwest Region, Purdue currently is tied for 5th in best odds to make it to the F4 according to FanDuel at +1200. The teams with current better odds are, of course, the top 3 seeds in Houston (+140), Tennessee (+370), and Kentucky (+900), but in a surprising twist, the 8-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (+850). A potential 2nd round opponent, Clemson, sits at +1500. In terms of the Midwest Region, the heavy hitters definitely seem to be Houston and Tennessee, who very nearly was a 1-seed. As for Purdue, if they can make it past High Point and either Clemson or McNeese (a very popular upset pick already) in Providence, Purdue would then play their Sweet 16 and potential Elite 8 games in a faux home stadium at Lucas Oil Stadium.

As a Purdue alum and obvious fan, I think the absolute dream scenario would be to make it to Indy through High Point and Clemson, upset Houston, and then somehow beat Tennessee in the Elite 8 for a second consecutive year (though maybe I don’t want that to happen so I don’t have to hear Rocky Top approximately 10,000 times in a day). Do I think it will happen? No, but I have dreams too. Either way, Purdue will take it’s first shot at a repeat trip to the Final Four Thursday at 12:40 PM ET in Providence, Rhode Island. I can offer the same advice I often give the Boilermakers: just win the damn game.

Thanks again to our friends at FanDuel and happy responsible betting.