Purdue faces a different challenge against USC this time around, with star guard Desmond Claude leading the way for the Trojans.
USC Roster
USC This Season
Southern Cal went with a hard reset this season. Eric Musselman took over the job, and everyone else left. He built this team through the transfer portal, but I’m not sure he watched any of these guys play defense. He assembled a team of offense-first guys; shockingly, they’re good on offense and bad on defense. That’s led to a season of uneven results. When the offense is working, they’ve pulled off a couple of impressive upsets, with wins over Illinois and Michigan State. When the offense isn’t working, they’re a bad basketball team with losses to Cal, Minnesota, and Rutgers.
The back half of the schedule has been an abject disaster for the Trojans. Since February 1, they are 4-8 (including last night’s win over Rutgers). They’ve given up 80+ points in 7 of those games and 90+ points in three of those games. It’s tough to win games when you have to score on every possession because you can’t keep the other team from scoring. That’s been the challenge for the USC offense, and for the most part, they haven’t been up to the task.
That said, in terms of momentum, they’re in a better place after their win over Rutgers last night than they’ve been in a long time. They feel good about themselves, and despite being a bad team, when their offense is cooking, they have the talent to pull an upset. They’re not a good team, but they’re dangerous when they hit shots, and they hit shots last night against Rutgers.
USC on Offense
Purdue didn’t see the real USC team in their 90-72 win over the Trojans on February 7 in Mackey. Point guard Desmond Claude didn’t play, and that’s similar to Purdue playing with Braden Smith. Clause is the engine of the Trojan’s offense, and it’s no surprise that they weren’t competitive with him out of the lineup. He leads Southern Cal in usage (28%) by a wide margin, and that’s because he’s their best player. They’re not good with him, but they’re terrible without him.
Claude is a 6’6”, 205-pound point guard capable of taking over games on his own. He’s a wing-sized point guard who thrives on getting into the lane, drawing fouls, and finishing through contact. Last night, Claude put up 28 points and eight assists (granted in two overtimes) and had the ball in his hands whenever USC needed a play down the stretch. He hit 12-15 free throw attempts and was a significant factor in Rutgers star Ace Bailey fouling out before overtime. USC scored eight points in the first overtime session. Claude had six of those points and assisted on the other bucket.
When Claude isn’t scoring, freshman Wesley Yates picks up the slack. Purdue dominated USC in the first matchup, but Yates still put on a show, putting up a season-high 30 points on the Boilermakers. That wasn’t a one-off for Yates. He has scored 20+ points in five games since then and has hit seven of his last nine three-point attempts coming into tonight’s game, including going a perfect 4-4 last night. On the season, Yates is shooting 44% from behind the arc on 118 attempts, and he’s hitting 50% of his shots from two on 51% shooting. When Claude and Yates click on offense, USC might have the best-scoring backcourt in the Big Ten.
In fact, USC is the best shooting team in the conference when everything falls into place. When you look at nothing but Big Ten games, they’re second in the conference in three-point shooting (38%) and fifth in two-point conversions (54%). Center Rashaun Agee is shooting 40% from three, and forward Chibuzo Agbo is hitting 40% of his offerings from behind the arc.
The moral of this story is that USC can score with anyone, including Purdue, making them a dangerous team for the Boilermakers tonight.
On the other hand …
USC on Defense
As I mentioned, Eric Musselman only perused offensive stats when assembling this roster. Since conference play started, they have been dead last in two-point defense (56%), second to last in effective field goal percentage (54), fourteenth in offensive rebounds allowed (31%), and fourteenth in free throws attempted / field goals attempted (meaning they put the team on the line when they’re not giving up wide-open looks from the perimeter).
The only two categories where their defense moves from bad to marginal are turnover percentage and three-point defense. They’re sixth in the conference in turnover percentage and ninth in three-point defense (34%). The best thing you can say about USC on the defensive end is that they occasionally force turnovers. Other than that, it should be a miss-or-make game for the Boilermakers because USC gives up a ton of open shots.
Two things could short-circuit Purdue’s offense tonight.
Missed Outside Shots
Purdue will find open shots; if they make open shots, they blow the Trojans out of the gym, but if they can’t find the range from deep and allow USC to clog the lane, things become much more challenging. If their offense is in gear, it pressures the opposing offense to keep up. On occasion, Purdue has missed open shots this season. That’s not an issue in some games because the other team can’t score. If Purdue doesn’t capitalize on open looks in this game, USC’s offense has the talent to push them over the top.
Turnovers
I’m less concerned with turnovers than I am with missed shots, but they could still factor into this game. The only way I see turnovers being a deciding factor in a USC win is if Purdue doesn’t shoot well and ends up spamming the high pick-and-roll into a crowded lane. Braden will turn the ball over if you cut off his passing options (easier said than done, of course), and TKR isn’t at his best when multiple defenders poke at the ball every time he touches it on the low block.
If this game is close, Braden and TKR will have the ball in their hands the vast majority of the time. It’s up to them to take care of it.
Prediction
KenPom
Purdue – 81
USC – 73
Confidence – 23%
Drew
Purdue – 95
USC – 81
I don’t usually stray this far from the KenPom prediction, but the advanced metrics don’t factor in a double overtime game the previous night. The Trojans are as deep as a puddle, and if they have to play more than seven, it’s not good.
I imagine them coming out fast because they feel good about things after last night’s win, but that feeling will not last. Purdue is too good on offense for a team this bad on defense.
This game has the potential to be a statement game for the Boilermakers, and they’ll want to remind the rest of the conference that Purdue has two of the five best players in the league, including the Conference Player of the Year in Braden Smith.
If this game were being played under different circumstances, I could see USC as the type of team that could give Purdue trouble. However, this game isn’t being played under different circumstances, and I don’t foresee them causing Purdue any trouble.