The Bruins pose some tough questions for the reeling Boilermakers on Friday night.
UCLA Roster
UCLA This Season
Before I get started on the preview, this is another game that feels weird. UCLA playing Purdue in West Lafayette should be a marquee pre-season game with a John Wooden-flavored build-up and not a random conference game in February, but such is life in 2025.
This season has been a mixed bag for Mick Cronin’s program. They’ve had stretches where they’ve been great and one where it looked like they forgot how to play basketball. Their best non-conference win was a 65-62 win over Gonzaga on December 28, and their best conference win came at home against Wisconsin on January 21. Their worst loss of the season came at home to Minnesota, 64-61, on February 18.
If UCLA played games strictly on the West Coast, as the basketball Gods intended, they’d be one of the best teams in the nation right now. Unfortunately for Mick Cronin, the Pac-12 was chopped up and sold for parts like a 1999 Acura Integra, and his team had to make a brutal road trip to the heart of Big 10 country to start 2025, and things did not go well. They dropped a road game to Nebraska on January 4, 66-58. Next, they returned home on January 7 and took a 94-75 beating at the hands of Michigan. They hopped back on a plane, lost a 79-61 game to Maryland on January 10, and hung around on the East Coast for a few days before catching a 75-68 loss to Rutgers.
After losing in New Jersey, they flew back to LA, nursed their wounds, and ran off seven straight West Coast wins, five coming at home and two on the road to Washington and USC. Not surprisingly, their win streak was stopped at seven when they loaded back up and headed to the thriving metropolis of Champaign, Illinois, where they dropped a game to the Fighting Illini 83-78. This time, they did manage to grab a win on their swing through the Midwest, picking off Indiana at Assembly Hall, 72-68 on February 14. To make up for winning a game on the road, they promptly lost a home game to Minnesota before beating the Buckeyes 69-61 last Sunday.
The Bruins should be well-rested coming into this game. Following their win over Ohio State, they did not have an early-week game on the schedule.
UCLA on Offense
The Bruins are not in a hurry to score points. They take their time, prod the defense a little, and generally find a decent shot towards the end of the shot clock.
Their offense runs through the burley combination of Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey. Like Purdue, the Bruins start two power forwards instead of a traditional center, but unlike the Boilermakers, their two power forwards can shoot the ball. Bilodeau leads the team in two-point field goals attempted (201) and made (105). He’s second on the team in three-pointers attempted (77) and leads the team in three-point percentage (44%). When I watch Bilodeau on film, I get post-traumatic flashbacks to Wisconsin’s Nolan Winter being ignored behind the three-point line by the Boilermakers, despite being a 37% shooter.
Bilodeau floats all over the court and is tough to guard out of the classic ‘Horns’ action Cronin loves to run early in the clock. They use Bilodeau and Bailey as the screeners on either elbow, with the ball up top and a wing on either side of the floor for spacing. This could be an issue for the Boilermakers. Both of the UCLA big men can pop out and hit from deep if their man overhelps on the screen, and Purdue loves to overhelp. UCLA regularly punishes teams for playing defense like Purdue plays defense, and that’s not great. CJ Cox and Gicarri Harris are going to be key in this game. If Purdue is smart, one of these guys will always be on the point guard. I don’t trust Smith and Loyer to fight through screens regularly. The freshmen must show up on defense and throw a wrench in the Horns’ set with ball pressure, or it will be a long night for Purdue. If the Boilermakers can’t control the point guard off the dribble, this game will come down to UCLA’s best shooters either making or missing open perimeter shots. That doesn’t tend to be a winning strategy.
It’s not good when I use the line “I don’t like the matchup for the Boilermakers” in every preview, but I don’t like the matchup for the Boilermakers in this game. UCLA’s offense is predicated on punishing help defense. They’re good at finding the open man or advantageous matchup when the defense is in rotation, and Purdue is perpetually in rotation. I know you’ve heard me say this before, but Purdue’s perimeter players have to figure out a way to defend without relying on help, and I’ve yet to see any indication that they’re capable of such a feat.
When you can’t stop the ball from getting in the paint off the bounce, defense is a challenge. Or, no, you know what, if your team can’t stop the opponents’ guards from getting into the paint on every possession, you’re not a good defensive team. Purdue is proving to be a poor defensive team. UCLA isn’t going to score a bunch of points because of their deliberate style of play, but if they efficiently score those points while limiting your possessions, they win. If you give them open wing and pick-and-pop threes off dribble penetration, they’ll jar enough of them to win. Playing the Bruins is a little like playing a classic Tony Bennett Virginia team; points are at a premium, and every lead seems doubled. If you get down by double digits, they will squeeze the life out of the game, and there isn’t much your team can do to stop it.
UCLA on Defense
I watched the Oregon game, and it gave me heartburn. I specifically watched the Oregon game because, like Purdue, the Ducks have a primary ball handler in Jackson Shelstad and a bunch of guys who would prefer not to dribble. Purdue has the same affliction – excuse me – roster limitation, and the Bruins ruthlessly attacked Shelstad. They picked up full-court pressure from the opening tip, not to create steals but to keep from giving Shelstad room to breathe. They hounded him all over the court, and subsequently, Oregon’s lead duck finished the game with no points, two assists, and two turnovers in 29 minutes of action. Keep in mind that he’s averaging a team-leading 13.3 points a game. Oregon’s offense is designed for Shelstad to score. The ball is in his hands a good bit of the time, and he spent that time fighting for his life against the stifling UCLA pressure.
Pressure
That’s the keyword for the UCLA defense. They put pressure on you at every position. They’re fourth in the nation in defensive turnover percentage (23.4) and are second in non-steal turnover percentage. Their ability to pressure the ball and defend without help makes the opposing offense beat them off the dribble. The Bruins destroyed Oregon because nothing was easy for the Ducks. UCLA turned the game into a series of one-on-one matchups on defense, and they consistently won their matchups. Unsurprisingly, their 85-83 win over Wisconsin on January 21 was the last team that scored over 80 points on Mick Cronin’s team. Badger guards John Blackwell and John Tonje are both tough one-on-one players. They rang up the Bruins for a combined 47 points, including Tonje hitting six of his seven three-point attempts, but because UCLA plays straight up on defense, Blackwell and Tonje got theirs, but Wisconsin still left Pauley with a loss. The rest of the squad could only come up with 36 points, and they needed to come up with 39 points to win.
Things get even more challenging when Mick Cronin goes to his bench and brings in 7’3”, 240-pound Aday Mara. Operating the pick-and-roll with an athletic big man looking to erase every shot is tough. Mara’s 16.3 block percentage is by far the best on both rosters. To put that in perspective, Purdue’s best shot blocker receiving any minutes is Raleigh Burgess at 2.8. UCLA has the rim protection that Purdue is missing.
UCLA puts a premium on shot making, but if you can make shots, you can put up a big number against them. This is a quick look at how some of the best scorers in the Big Ten have fared against the Bruins’ defense.
Leading Scorers vs UCLA
Ohio State – Bruce Thornton – 21
Minnesota – Dawson Garcia – 32
Illinois – Kasparas Jakucionis – 24
Wisconsin – John Tonje – 24
Wisconsin – John Blackwell – 23
Purdue has the players to win individual matchups. Braden Smith, Trey Kaufmann-Renn, and Fletcher Loyer can all create and hit their own shots. That’s what it’s going to come down to on Friday.
Can all of Purdue’s ‘Big 3’ show up?
That’s what it’s going to take. Purdue’s best players are going to have to be better than UCLA‘s defense because that’s the question UCLA asks. They want to know if your guys are better than their guys, and they’re willing to bet the answer is ‘no’ often enough that they win a low-scoring game. It’s been a successful strategy for them so far this season.
Prediction
KenPom
Purdue: 72
UCLA: 67
Confidence: 68%
Drew
Purdue: 63
UCLA: 67
I’m picking against Purdue in Mackey, but I’ve been left with no choice. UCLA’s offense spreads the floor and punishes help defense and double teams. Purdue’s defense lives to help and double team. UCLA’s defense forces the offense to create and hit shots off the dribble. Purdue has a team built around the pick-and-roll and spot-up shooters. All of this is to say that the Boilermakers will win this game because I’m predicting them to lose.
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