Drew takes a look at the Boilermakers heading into the NCAA Tournament
My basketball season is weird. I write a bunch of previews, but I don’t get to talk much about Purdue other than in the context of how they match up with other teams. I thought it would be interesting to preview Purdue as they head into the tournament.
Roster
Purdue on Offense
If you want to understand the Purdue offense, look no further than the postseason awards circuit. Braden Smith is the Big Ten Player of the Year and an All-American. Trey Kaufman-Renn is First-Team All-Big Ten. Fletcher Loyer is Honorable Mention All-Big Ten.
Braden Smith is on the court for 91.7% of all minutes played for a reason: he’s the lynchpin of the entire operation. Smith is a solid scorer, but where he truly excels is as the point guard in the 1-4 pick-and-roll. If you’re guarding Purdue, the odds are high that Smith will eventually have the ball at the top of the key, and Trey Kaufmann-Renn will set a screen and roll to the basket.
At times, Purdue’s offense can feel one-note when Braden Smith and TKR are the only two players touching the ball, but it’s a beautiful note. Smith is the master of the pocket pass, and TKR is the best big man in America for the short role. The short roll allows Kaufmann-Renn enough room to collect the ball and decide his method of attack. He has a great touch on his mid-lane floater when the opposing defense hangs back to defend the basket. If the defender steps up and attempts to wall off the lane, TKR has impeccable footwork and can manufacture a shot out of nothing with his shot fakes and pivots. If all else fails, he can create space with a shoulder and use his touch to get an off-balanced shot to drop.
Over the last few games, teams have focused on making Braden Smith a pass-first point guard, and Purdue has struggled to find enough points to win. The Smith / TKR pick-and-roll is money and the reason the Boilermakers have the seventh-most efficient offense in the nation, but Trey isn’t going to score 75+ points. Purdue needs Smith to score. In their 18-point loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament, the Big Ten Player of the Year couldn’t get anything going. His offensive game was narrowed to pull-up-jumpers and fade-away attempts from the mid-range. Purdue isn’t going to win many games where their best player puts up 12 points and six assists on 5 18 shooting. They beat a bad USC team, with Braden putting up 12 points and nine assists on 3-10 shooting in the first game of the Big Ten tournament, but it required a 30-point performance from TKR, and the game was a toss-up down the stretch.
That brings me to Fletcher Loyer. When Purdue’s “Big 2” of Smith and TKR are both on, Purdue is a tough team to beat. When Fletcher Loyer shows up and gives the Boilermakers a “Big 3,” they’re one of the best teams in the nation, but that doesn’t happen as often as it should.
Frustration, Fletcher Loyer be thy name.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Loyer fan. I get frustrated with Fletcher because I think he’s one of the most skilled offensive players in the nation, and sometimes he and Purdue forget that. Purdue has a shooting guard hitting 46% from deep, but sometimes, he doesn’t get the looks he should during the game. Matt Painter and company get so caught up in the brutal efficiency of the high pick-and-roll that Loyer gets moved to the back burner. Take Purdue’s five-point win over USC in the Big Ten Tournament, for example. Loyer finished the game with 14 points on 4-9 shooting and a perfect 3-3 from the free throw line in 34 minutes. Myles Colvin went 3-8 from the field in 21 minutes. Colvin played 13 fewer minutes but almost took more shots than Fletcher. As I said, I’m a Loyer fan, but he needs to get aggressive on offense and start letting it fly, and the coaching staff needs to make him a priority on offense instead of an afterthought.
The problem with Loyer being on the court for 34 minutes and only taking nine shots is he’s not a good defender. He’s crafty and will draw more charges than it seems like he should, but if Loyer’s not getting him on offense, someone is probably getting theirs against his defense. If Loyer isn’t going to shoot, Purdue has better options on the bench. That said, Purdue needs Loyer to shoot. He’s the best player on the team at getting his own shot outside of the offensive system and has hit more clutch threes in his Purdue career than people remember. If I’m High Point or any other team Purdue may face in the tournament, I’m making Loyer a defensive priority and see if the Boilermakers can scrape together enough points with the pick-and-roll. When you make Purdue’s offense one-dimensional and limit their scoring to two players, they’re not a good team. When the Boilermakers expand their offense and get Loyer involved, they’re much better. When they expand it further and get bench production, they’re one of the best teams in the nation. The fewer Boilermakers in the box score, the better if you’re a Purdue opponent.
That brings me to everyone else. There is no gentle way to put this: at best, Purdue’s supporting cast has been disappointing this season. There have been moments of brilliance from both Colvin and Heide, but nothing sustained or predictable. Purdue needed them both to take a bigger step up this season. Some of it comes down to the same gripe I have about Loyer not getting enough opportunities. I’d love to see Purdue run occasional offense for either of their sophomore wings. I’d like to see more backdoor cuts and baseline lobs. When Colvin and Heide start flying around the rim, good things happen for Purdue. If nothing else, it makes the defense look at something other than the pick-and-roll in front of them.
Like Loyer, I’m making Colvin and Heide a priority. Both are capable of providing Purdue with an auxiliary scorer, and leaving either open from behind the line is dangerous. Don’t be fooled by Colvin’s 32% three-point percentage. He’s the type of guy who can come off the bench, sink multiple threes over a five-minute run, and shift the entire game. The same goes for Heide. He shoots 37% from behind the arc and often finds himself alone in the corner while his defender helps on the pick-and-roll. He went 3-3 from the outside against USC, and without his contributions, the Boilermakers would have been in serious trouble.
Now that the wings are covered let’s talk about post players not named Trey Kaufmann-Renn. Caleb Furst is the other starter. He’s a high-energy player who will score most of his points (if there are any) off of transition baskets and offensive rebounds. The weird thing about Furst is he’s a terror in the open court. He runs hard and has thrown down some serious dunks in transition this season. At the same time, he lacks explosion in the half-court and struggles to finish in the dunker spot under the basket. Freshman Raleigh Burgess and Sophomore Will Berg are Purdue’s other post options, but if they’re in the game, Purdue is either up big, down big, or making offense for defense subs with Berg and Burgess. Both are still a work in progress on offense, and neither will play a significant role in the outcome.
Two players who could play a significant role in the outcome of the game are freshmen guards Gicarri Harris and CJ Cox. Cox has started 20 games as a true freshman and has had a few breakout performances. His 11 points off the bench helped Purdue knock off Alabama in Mackey in the non-conference. He put up 23 points, including going 5-7 from three in Purdue’s dismantling of Nebraska. He was Purdue’s third-leading scorer with 13 points in their loss to Wisconsin, but all those games were played in Mackey Arena. For whatever reason, when Purdue goes on the road, CJ leaves his offense in West Lafayette. Purdue needs more from Cox than the combined one point he scored in the Big Ten Tournament, but it followed the trend of him not scoring away from home.
Harris started the season as a starter for Purdue before a brutal shooting slump sent him to the bench. The good news for Purdue is that while Cox was persona non grata in the Big Ten Tournament, Harris played some of his best ball of the season against Michigan. He scored 11 points in 21 minutes on 3-5 shooting and gave Purdue a boost off the bench with his ability to push the pace in the open floor and finish at the rim. When incorporated into the offense, he can provide Purdue with a physical driver off the bounce.
Overall, the game plan against Purdue is simple but counterintuitive. The Boilermakers struggle when the game turns into five on two, with Smith and TKR trying to carry the entire scoring load. Smith is going to hit TKR on the short roll. He will drop off a few magical sleight-of-hand passes than any other guard would have no business even attempting, but can they do that often enough to win on their own?
They haven’t done it recently.
As hard as it is to watch TKR gut your defense with his rolls to the basket, you’ve got to play him straight up and hope you get enough stops. Play Braden tight, take away his mid-range jumper, and invite him to try and take the ball to the rim to score. Don’t leave shooters open on the perimeter in order to dig down on the pick-and-roll. It’s not going to bother TKR, and Smith is looking for a reason not to try and lay the ball up over guys a foot taller than he is.
Purdue has two excellent players, but they’re not good enough to do it on their own. It’s advisable for any opponent in the tournament to try to make them do it on their own. Word of warning, however, if Braden’s shot is dropping, they’ve got a good shot of beating you five on 2.
Purdue on Defense
I spent 1,700 words talking about Purdue’s offense, but don’t worry, if you have a pressing obligation but want to finish this article first, there’s not much to say about Purdue’s defense.
This defense was designed to funnel drivers inside to a shot-blocking big man, and Purdue’s 7’4” shot-blocking big man broke his leg in the second game of the season. He averaged 1.5 blocks in those two games, which still leads the team. Will Berg and Trey Kaufman-Renn are tied for second place, providing .3 blocks per game. Subsequently, Purdue is 350th in 2-point defense and 356th in shot blocking. Even when things go well on defense, and they get a stop, rebounding has been an issue.
Needless to say, the goal against Purdue is to get the ball into the paint by any means necessary. Most teams try to utilize the pick-and-roll, but the secret to beating Purdue’s defense (in my humble opinion) is the straight-line drive to the basket without the pick. Caleb Furst may not be a great shot blocker, but he’s an elite perimeter defender at 6’10”. He’s more than capable of stuffing a drive after switching onto a guard. Teams that spread the floor and drive Purdue without setting a screen turn Caleb into a weak side help defender at the rim, and that’s not where he excels.
Purdue plays better team defense than individual defense. They lack a true stopper capable of putting the clamps on a hot scorer. The more you can isolate Purdue defenders and pick on matchups, the better. The Boilermakers want to stay compact, defend the rim with numbers, and then recover out to shooters. The more you pull them apart, the more the lane and bucket open for drivers. Teams that cycle through their offense more than once on a possession will often find a better matchup the second time around because the Boilermaker rely so much on help defense that they end up scrambling to find matchups on any reset. If you’re patient against this defense, the odds are you will find a good look eventually.
One other note. The goal of your offense in the first half should be to seek out TKR and drive the ball at him at every opportunity. He’s unstoppable around the basket, but he has to be on the floor to score, and he tends to give up cheap fouls around the rim. I’d give him every opportunity to pick up those fouls. Purdue is a different team when he’s not on the floor. Many of their late first-half collapses this season have been predicated on TKR hitting the bench with his second foul.
Overall
Any team with Purdue’s headlining talent is dangerous. When you play Purdue, you’re going up against the country’s best 1-2 punch. As a Purdue fan, my hope is that the Boilermakers look more like the team that went 11-1 from December 29 through February 7 and less like the team that went 3-6 from February 11 through March 14 now that they’re out of the Big Ten grinder.
This team is heavily reliant on their rather unique offensive system. That offense system becomes easier to guard each time you play against it. Now they’ve got a chance to play basketball in some fresh air. High Point hasn’t seen anything like the Smith / TKR pick-and-roll combination. Michigan had already played against it twice this season. They gave up 91 points the first time, 73 points the second time, and 68 points the third time. Illinois is the only other Big Ten team in Purdue’s region, and they’re on the other side of the bracket.
Purdue is a popular pick for an early-round exit, but I think the Boilermakers offense will carry them through the first game and make them a tough out going forward. This team has two experienced guards, including the Big Ten Player of the Year, and a deadly efficient scorer on the inside. This team has some pieces other teams will struggle to contain, especially if they haven’t seen them before and aren’t getting the respect they deserve because of their late-season struggles.