The Boilermakers and Wolverines square off in a rubber match in the Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals.
Michigan Roster
Michigan Since Their Last Game Against Purdue
The Wolverines knocked off the Boilermakers in the Crisler Center, 75-73, on February 11. Their win even the season series 1-1 and helped cleanse the 91-64 drubbing Purdue administered to them in Mackey on January 24 from their brain.
Since then, things haven’t been great for the Wolverines or Boilermakers. We know about Purdue’s late season struggles, but Michigan experienced a similar fate down the stretch of conference play. Since knocking off Purdue at home, their record is 3-4, including two 10+ point losses to Michigan State and a 20-point shellacking at home against Illinois. All the teams that Michigan beat after playing Purdue have been eliminated from the Big Ten Tournament. All the teams that beat them still remain. Basically, Michigan knocked off the lower-rung Big Ten teams and lost to the upper quarter of the conference. They come into this game on a three-game losing streak, including a 79-62 loss to Michigan State in their previous game.
Purdue wasn’t great down the stretch either (to say the least), but at least they should have a little confidence after knocking off a game USC team late last night.
Michigan on Offense
I expect to see the same game plan Michigan deployed in their February 11 win over Purdue tonight. In that game, they ruthlessly attacked the paint and almost fouled out Purdue’s entire front line; TKR fouled out in 30 minutes, and Caleb fouled out in 26 minutes. Throw in four fouls on CJ Cox, and the Boilermakers ended the game with 23 fouls to Michigan’s 13. The Wolverines went 18-26 from the charity stripe, while Purdue went 6-8. The difference in the final score was two points.
Dusty May utilized a diverse attack. Four Wolverines ended the game in double digits. Danny Wolf led the way with 15 points, followed by Roddy Gayle with 14 off the bench, and Tre Donaldson and Vlad Goldin both with 12 points. Nimari Burnett was one point away from double figures with 9.
The main story of this game was the final 10 minutes. Purdue held an eight-point lead with ten minutes remaining before Michigan erupted for 32 points down the stretch. They scored nine points from the foul line and hit three three-pointers to help push them to the lead, but Michigan’s ability to get to the rim at their leisure fueled their late-game surge. Purdue’s interior defense has been their Achilles heel all season, and that was very much the case in this game.
Sometimes, basketball is simple. Michigan has the seventh-best two-point shooting percentage in the nation at 58.2%. Purdue has the 341st-ranked two-point defense and is 355th in block percentage. The Wolverines will attack Purdue at the rim, utilizing their unique 4-5 / 5-4 pick-and-roll game with Danny Wolf and Vlad Golden. If that doesn’t work, they’ll switch to Tre Donaldson, Roddy Gayle, and Nimari Burnett attacking the rim. Purdue’s only response last game was to foul. It’s up to Matt Painter and company to have a better game plan going into this game because Michigan did precisely what they needed to do to beat Purdue the last time out, and the Boilermakers had for them on defense when the game was on the line. If that doesn’t change in this game, the offense will have to be perfect to make the semi-finals.
The good news is that Michigan loves to turn the ball over. Danny Wolf’s ability to run the game from the top of the key has been a stunning success, but he can turn into a walking turnover on occasion. In fact, while his 23.2 assist rate is impressive, it’s outpaced by his 24.8 turnover rate. A quarter of the time, Wolf will pass it to his team in the perfect position to score. Another quarter of the time, he’s going to pass it to your team. Purdue did not exploit Michigan’s penchant for giving away the ball, with both teams coughing it up 11 times. The Boilermakers need to push them closer to 20 turnovers this time around for them to feel both the joy and pain of a Danny Wolf-led offense.
In the last game, it was mostly joy. Purdue needs to win the turnover battle to win this game. It’s the one clear advantage they have.
Michigan on Defense
It’s no surprise that Michigan is in the top quarter of defense teams in the Big Ten, given its size on the interior and athleticism on the perimeter. They have the sixth most efficient defense in conference games, the fifth-best three-point defense (32.), and the third-best two-point defense (48%).
The truth is, they do what Purdue can’t do because they usually have two rim protectors on the floor, namely, defend the rim. Golden and Wolf don’t block as many shots as you would suspect, but having two seven-footers anchoring your backline is usually a positive. They allow Michigan to play defense without collapsing into the paint at the slightest hint of a drive (like Purdue). Subsequently, their guards tend to guard their own guys instead of having to scramble around in rotation all game. When Michigan’s defense is locked in, they don’t give up many open looks.
The good news for the Boilermakers is that they have a couple of guys capable of scoring despite the defense. Trey Kaufmann-Renn is a human wrecking ball on the inside. He bounces and spins off defenders until he finds a shot, and Fletcher Loyer is a surprisingly good, tough shot-maker. If they can get to their spot, they can score against solid defense.
The deciding factor for me in this game is Braden Smith.
Braden is the Big Ten Player of the Year for a reason, but he didn’t look like Purdue’s best player, much less the best player in the conference, against USC. Much of that falls on the Trojans because they sold out to stop Braden. If I were coaching against Purdue, I’d do the same thing. If you’re going to stop the Boilermaker offense, limiting their best player to 12 points and 9 assists (an impressive stat line for most point guards) is not a bad idea. Eric Musselman made it clear that someone other than Braden was going to beat him last night. Smith was trapped off every pick-and-roll and never seemed like he could get to where he wanted to go on the floor. Down the stretch, Painter stopped calling the high screen every time down, and Smith got to the basket off the dribble twice without having to navigate the second defender (he blew the first layup but made the second). As good as the Braden/TKR pick-and-roll can be, it can turn Smith into strictly a passer, and Purdue needs him to score.
I think you’ll see a good bit of Braden off the ball, at least initially, in this game. When you take Smith off the ball and put him on the wing, it asks an entirely different question of the defense. It allows him to catch and shoot with his feet set off a kick-out or attack a closing defender off the dribble. Smith is a better scorer in some ways when the ball isn’t in his hands the entire game. If Braden puts up 20+, Purdue will be in good shape. If he’s held under that number, putting up enough points to win will be a struggle.
The good news is that Cam Heide and Myles Covin combined for 17 points last night. USC made it a point to stop Braden and decided they would live and die with open Colvin and Heide three-pointers. Cam buried all three attempts, and Myles jarred two-of-six from deep. The Trojans challenged them to win the game by hitting open perimeter jumpers, and they hit their open perimeter jumpers and subsequently won the game. If Dusty May employs the same defensive strategy tonight and sells out to stop Braden, Purdue will need a similar performance from their talented but mercurial wings.
Prediction
Ken Pom
Purdue – 76
Michigan – 73
Confidence – 60%
Drew
For purely superstitious reasons, I will abstain from making a prediction. I see this game as a coin toss that comes down to Michigan’s ability to score on the inside vs. Purdue’s ability to hit contested shots and force turnovers. The team that inflicts its will and style of play on its opponent will be heading to the semi-finals tomorrow.