The Boilermakers battle the upstart Cowboys in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
Purdue (23-11) vs McNeese State (28-6)
Roster
FanDuel Odds
Spread
McNeese: +6.5
Purdue: – 6.5
Total Points (Over/Under)
143.5
Moneyline
McNeese: +205
Purdue: -255
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McNeese State Round 1
Full acknowledgment: I graduated from Clemson and write for their SB Nation site. I was highly invested in this game.
The Cowboys knocked off an experienced but injury-ravaged Clemson team 69-67 in one of the strangest games I’ve ever watched this season. The Tigers played one of the worst first halves in NCAA tournament history. In the first 20 minutes of the game, they only managed 13 points. It was a stunning display of offensive ineptitude.
McNeese came out of the locker room, punched Clemson in the face, then continued punching them for 20 minutes. They came out playing a junk zone defense the Tigers weren’t prepared for, and Clemson’s only solution was to chuck up rim-rattling 3’s at the first opportunity. McNeese packed the paint, made post-entry passes and rolls to the basket difficult, and recovered to shooters. Clemson had open looks from outside, but they wouldn’t fall…over and over again.
The locker room was the Tiger’s best friend. Brad Brownell put together a counter to the McNeese zone, and the team calmed down. After losing the first half 31-13, they played the first 10 minutes of the second half, even 16-16, and then hit the gas in the final 10 minutes. Clemson went 9-30 from deep for the game, but they hit 7 of those 9 in the final 10 minutes. The shots that weren’t falling in the first half started dropping in the final 10 minutes, and McNeese State refused to stop turning the ball over to Clemson’s full-court pressure. The score was 47-29 with 10 minutes remaining, ending at 69-67. Once Clemson finally started hitting some shots and matching McNeese’s defensive pressure with their own, they were clearly the best team on the court, but that didn’t matter because of the head start they gave the Cowboys.
McNeese reminded me of a high-volume puncher without knockout power. They wanted to win the game with pressure and athletic ability, and in the first half, they swarmed Clemson but couldn’t knock them out. McNeese lacks the scoring to blow teams out, or at least they did against the Tigers. Once Clemson calmed down, figured out the defense, set their feet, and started throwing bombs, the Cowboys had nothing for them. You could see McNeese start running out of gas, and as soon as that happened, the contested 3’s Clemson was taking in the first half turned into wide-open looks down the stretch. Will Wade’s squad was saved by the bell in this game, but it doesn’t matter how you win, as long as you win. If the game were five minutes longer, Clemson would win going away, but college basketball is played over two 20-minute halves, not a 20-minute half and a 25-minute half.
McNeese moves on, and Clemson goes home.
McNeese on Offense
I was impressed with the Cowboy’s activity and energy on offense, especially in the first half, but other than that, it wasn’t anything special. They didn’t shoot the ball well, hitting 4 of their 19 attempts from 3, and once the game settled down in the halfcourt, their offense stagnated. That said, when they played in transition or on the secondary break, their stable of athletes was tough for Clemson to contain.
Purdue needs to turn this into a low-possession game because McNeese thrives on volume. Point guard Quadir Copeland is great when the game is up-tempo but struggles with turnovers in the halfcourt. The former Syracuse point guard has great size at 6’6”, 200 pounds, but is loose with the ball and can’t shoot. Seriously, he’s attempted 21 3’s this season and has connected on 3. He needs to play in transition because when the game slows down, teams don’t guard him on the outside. When Copeland runs a pick and roll, the defense should go under every time and dare him to shoot. If he’s spotting up on the perimeter, his defender should be no closer than 5 feet away. Do y’all remember how teams played Nojel (before his newly minted right-handed jumper that he sinks regularly in the G-League)? That’s how Purdue should play Copeland. He finished the Clemson game with a team-leading five assists, but he committed seven turnovers in the process.
Reserve wing Brandon Murray was the MVP for McNeese in their opening game, scoring 21 points on 9-16 shooting, but in his previous four games combined, he scored 20 points. That’s sort of the way it goes with McNeese. Their offense thrives on chaos, and chaos doesn’t care who scores as long as the ball goes in the basket. They remind me of a less skilled Michigan State because of their singular focus on driving the ball to the basket and getting it on the rim. They’re not even particularly good at finishing around the basket the first time, but they swarm the offensive glass. The best offense McNeese had in the halfcourt against Clemson came on easy buckets either directly off putbacks or off a post-offensive rebound scramble.
These guys aren’t big, but they’re super bouncy, and no rebound is out of anyone’s “area.” When the ball hits the rim, two, and sometimes three, Cowboys are in hot pursuit. Their 18 offensive rebounds against Clemson won the game for them, and they came from all over the roster. Christian Shumate led the way with five offensive boards, but Copeland and Selebangue chipped in with three, and Joe Charles and Sincere Parker each had two. Purdue guards and wings have to get a body on guys Shumate and Copeland because they’ll fly in and jump over everyone if they don’t.
For me, slowing down the McNeese offense for Purdue is all about tempo. Clemson couldn’t do that in the first half because they didn’t hit shots, and the style of play swung heavily in McNeese State’s favor. Add in the Cowboy’s dominance on the offense boards, and the less skilled team took it to the more skilled team with hustle, determination, and rebounding. It wasn’t pretty (unless they were throwing down monster dunks off offensive boards), but it was brutally effective.
McNeese on Defense
Will Wade broke out a shifting 2-3 – 3-2 zone in the first half, and the Clemson players looked like they hadn’t seen or practiced against that type of defense since Jim Boeheim called it a career, probably because they haven’t. Clemson is a system team on offense. They had particular looks they needed to get to, but couldn’t figure out how to get to them because McNeese wasn’t where they expected them to be. Once they figured it out, the points started flowing, but it was too little too late.
Purdue’s first and potentially most important job is to calm down and not let the McNeese defense put them on the back foot. That’s what this Cowboys team is built to do. They’re built to take you out of your game and make you do things on offense you usually wouldn’t consider trying. Clemson fell in love with the three in the first half because the threes were easy to find. McNeese’s defense makes you want to shoot the ball because their on-ball pressure makes shooting seem like a relief. They trick you into taking the shot you don’t normally take because it’s available, and you’re ready to have guys stop poking at you.
To beat McNeese, you have to attack them back. If you go backward, they swarm. Once Clemson pulled itself together and started attacking and getting to what they wanted instead of settling for what McNeese was willing to give up, Clemson looked like the team I watched beat up on a healthy Duke team earlier this season. The pressure team doesn’t like to be pressured, and that’s both on offense and defense. They want to make it seem like the easiest option is the best option, but when you’re strong with the ball, you can still get to where you want to go on the court.
On defense, it all comes down to Purdue limiting easy looks and cleaning up the defensive boards. On offense, it comes down to guard play. In theory, Purdue has the best point guard in the nation. It hasn’t looked like that over the last few games, and this is a game where Braden has to dominate. They’re going to throw pressure on him. They will try to either make him give up the ball or go backward off the screen and roll. He can’t let them force him into retreating. Clemson was trying to run their offense from the logo instead of the top of the key in the first half because they weren’t strong with the ball. In this game, Braden must keep moving forward because they’ll swarm him as soon as he starts going backward.
The same goes for everyone else on the team. Purdue has to be aggressive 1-5 instead of focusing on getting the ball to Braden and Trey at all costs. That means Fletcher Loyer will need to shoot the ball when he’s open and drive it to the basket when he’s not. It’s got to be a catch-and-shoot or a catch-and-drive for Purdue’s guards because when the ball stops moving, McNeese wins. When the ball moves and everyone attacks, their defense goes from giving up 13 points in a half to giving up 52.
Purdue is more than capable of scoring 40+ points in a half against this team, but they can’t wait until the second half to play basketball like Clemson did yesterday.
Predictions
KenPom
Purdue – 75
McNeese – 69
Drew
Purdue – 82
McNeese – 74
I’m going out on a limb, but I went out on a similar limb in the first round and almost nailed the final score. I like this matchup for Purdue. They don’t have the type of interior game that bothers Purdue. The Boilermakers should be able to play with Heide at the 4 most of the game without giving up any size, and that’s when the Boilermakers are at their best. That said, this is a solid matchup for Furst, whose ability to defend on the perimeter should be a huge plus, and his inability to block shots should be somewhat mitigated.
This game will be close throughout, and McNeese may even lead at points, but I trust the Boilermakers when it comes down to winning time against the Cowboys. Clemson gave them a lap head start and came close to clipping them in the end; as long as Purdue doesn’t put up 13 points in the first half, I like their chances in this one.
Good Teams win, great teams cover. I’m not sure if Purdue is a great team, but if I were a betting man (and I’m not), I’d take Purdue to cover and the over in this one. I think the Boilermaker offense is primed for another explosion tomorrow.