Purdue wraps up the regular season on the road in Champaign in a crucial game for Big Ten Tournament seeding.
Purdue (21-9, 13-6 Big Ten) vs. Illinois (19-11, 11-8 Big Ten)
Illinois Roster
Illinois This Season
Brad Underwood’s group has run hot and cold all season, and that’s understandable considering it features five new players in the starting lineup this season. Their non-conference record featured wins over Arkansas and Missouri and losses to Alabama, Tennessee, and that weird game they played against Duke on February 22.
They’ve been the picture of inconsistency in the Big Ten, capable of winning or losing on any given night. They have wins over Wisconsin and Michigan and losses to USC, Northwestern, and Rutgers. They come into this game playing some of their best basketball of the season, coming off dominating wins over Iowa (81-61) and Michigan (93-73).
Illinois on Offense
The Fighting Illini have the third most efficient offense in the Big Ten this season, but they approach efficiency a little differently than most teams. Illinois takes a ton of shots. They play at a breakneck pace on offense and defense and overwhelm opponents with volume.
They’re averaging 30 three-point attempts and 37 two-point attempts per game during conference play. To put that in perspective, Purdue averages 22 three-point attempts and 35 two-point attempts in Big Ten action. Brad Underwood wants to get the ball up the court and heading towards the basket as quickly as possible. Their average possession length is fifth in the conference, but they make up for that by averaging the shortest defensive possessions.
For a team that has attempted the most threes in the Big Ten this season, they’re shockingly bad at making them. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team lead the league in attempts and anchor the league in percentage, but now I have. Illinois is shooting a Big Ten worst 29.8% from behind the arc. They are, however, the second-best team in the Big Ten when it comes to converting on the inside, converting on 57% of their two-point attempts.
In terms of playing style, the thing that concerns me the most about this team is their ability to offensive rebound. They’re second in the Big Ten in Offensive Rebounding percentage, and while Purdue has been better on the board in recent games, it can still be an adventure on occasion. Illinois doesn’t have one dominant rebounder; instead, they make rebounding a team endeavor. Tre White and Tomislav Ivisic lead the way on the offensive glass, but they’ll frequently send their guards to crash the boards as well. This leaves them vulnerable to teams that want to run but also gets them extra shots. Remember, Illinois wants to crush you with volume; giving up the occasional run-out is part of the bargain.
What struck me in their dominant 93-73 win over Illinois was their passing. This isn’t a great passing team, but their 20 assists against the Wolverines painted a different picture. In fact, they’re averaging 18.5 assists over their last two games. Before those two games, they were riding a three-game losing streak while averaging 11 assists. Illinois is a much better team when the ball moves instead of players trying to get up the first available shot. When they commit to passing the ball as a team, they’re tough to defend. Four starters for Illinois have an assist rate over 15, with freshman point guard Kasparas Jakucionis leading the way at 27. Purdue only has two players (Braden and TKR) with an assist rate over 15, but Smith’s conference-leading 44.6 assists help even things out. It also shows that the Fighting Illini are more of an equal opportunity ball handling / passing team, while Purdue counts on Smith to do most of the dribbling and passing.
Look for Illinois to empty out the post and play a good bit of five-out offense, with multiple off-ball screens and cutters. Michigan looked lost on defense against their egalitarian attack that pressures each defender individually. If a defender loses ball-and-man like Michigan did multiple times, they will backdoor cut you to death. Purdue’s defense has to prioritize defending cuts to the basket and make Illinois players flare out to the three-point line because while they are eager to launch from deep, they’re not good at it. It’s almost like they don’t care who shoots it, as long as someone shoots it. They have five players on their roster with over 100 three-point attempts and a sixth player with 96. Purdue has three players with over 100 attempts. Jakucionis has the most offerings with 141 but is only hitting 33%. ‘Shooting’ guard Kylan Boswell has hit 22% of his 117 offerings from deep. Kudos to him for not giving up, but I’m not sure I could handle watching a player consistently shoot that poorly. I do understand that he will now go 7-7 from 3 against Purdue,
The one guy that concerns me from the outside is 7’1” center Tomislav Ivisic. Note to Purdue defenders: This is a Euro big that plays like a Euro big. He won’t hesitate to shoot the ball from deep off a pick-and-pop or as a spot-up shooter off a drive-and-kick. I know he’s tall, but you must guard him everywhere on the court. He can even get the ball in the high post, turn, and hit a free-throw jumper if you immediately retreat to the basket when he catches the ball. Purdue’s post defenders can’t turn their brains off and let him drift around and find open shots because he’ll drain them.
Overall, Illinois is one of the more balanced offensive teams Purdue has faced this season. They have four players averaging between 10 and 15 points, and while Jackucionis is nominally their go-to guy, any number of guys can step up and fill that role when needed. It’s tough to hide someone on defense against this team. It will be interesting to see if that changes Purdue’s rotation or if Coach Painter sticks with his regular minutes distribution and hopes Fletcher Loyer can continue to get his back on offense.
Illinois on Defense
I admit I haven’t watched much Illinois basketball this season. Still, I’m having a hard time wrapping my brain around a team that averages the fastest defensive possessions in the Big Ten is also the worst team at creating turnovers in the Big Ten. Typically, a defense with an average possession length of 16.6 seconds gambles for turnovers, but not Illinois. They do everything well, but they don’t turn the team over.
Purdue fans will recognize this strategy. Illinois doesn’t turn teams over, but it’s also the second-best team in the conference in avoiding fouls. It gives space, discourages drives, doesn’t foul, and makes life difficult for anyone who wants to score inside the arc. It only allows teams to shoot 46.8% from two, which is the best interior defense in the Big Ten.
The good news for Purdue is that they have to give something up, and that something is outside shooting. While they’re the best team in the conference in stopping two-pointers, they’re eleventh at defending three-pointers, allowing teams to shoot 34.6% from behind the arc. As we all witnessed last time out, Purdue can go absolutely stupid from deep at a moment’s notice.
Brad Underwood will play drop coverage, build a wall in the paint, and try to stop Purdue from getting to the rim out of the pick-and-roll. It’s up to Purdue to decide how they want to attack. If they’re shooting like they did against Rutgers, this game should be a blowout because Illinois will give you looks from deep. Unfortunately, as much as I’d enjoy watching Purdue hit 18 threes, I’m not counting on it.
This defense is going to ask an interesting question. Their strength is taking away Purdue’s bread-and-butter pick and roll. Will the Boilermakers be able to run it regardless, or will Coach Painter have to go to some more of the sets we saw against Rutgers that involved getting Braden off the ball and giving him more spot-up opportunities from three? I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he went 7 of 13 from behind the arc after getting a few open catch and shoot threes to get in a rhythm. Once he saw a few of those go down, the floodgates opened, and everything started working. I’d love to see them run that game plan back tomorrow night.
That leaves TKR. Illinois is going to try to take everything away at the rim. It will be up to TKR to either ignore that and score anyway, or, more likely, he will need to rely on his array for floaters and teardrops in the lane. Brad Underwood wants to build a wall at the rim, but that leaves the middle of the lane wide open. Trey can score efficiently in the eight-to-ten-foot range, which might serve him well. I’m concerned about offensive fouls if he tries to force the ball to the rim too often. He still needs to get to the rim, but he needs to be judicious and attack when he has an advantage instead of attacking because he likes to attack.
At the end of the day, Illinois wants to see if you will hit jumpers. Duke hit jumpers and put up 110 points on them in February. Wisconsin did the same and ended up scoring 95 points. On the other end of the spectrum, Iowa couldn’t hit anything and only made it to 61 points. Michigan couldn’t find the space to make their4/5 big/big pick-and-roll to work and could only come away with 73. Purdue will be able to find open looks if they don’t get stuck in their pick-and-roll rut; it’s just a matter of those shots dropping. This is a miss/make type game for Purdue from the mid-range and the perimeter.
Predictions
Ken Pom
Purdue – 78
Illinois – 80
Drew
Purdue – 86
Illinois – 84
I’m taking Purdue in a high-scoring game. Am I being overly influenced by the Rutgers performance? Absolutely, but I don’t care. Illinois gives up the mid-range and threes to defend the rim. Purdue has the skill to win the game from those spots on the court, and I think the coaching staff will deploy it in a way that makes life extremely difficult for this otherwise tough Fighting Illini defense. This one could go either way, and I’m taking Purdue because they’re my favorite team.