Purdue has a better shot against Houston than some are giving them credit for, but it will take their A game to pull off the upset.
#1 Houston (32-4) vs #4 Purdue (24-11)
Part of my research for writing this preview is listening to multiple podcasts. Most of the time, the opinions are mixed from one group of talking heads to the next, but not this game.
Nope, every talking head in America is taking the Cougs in this one, which is understandable, given that they are the overall top seed in the tournament. What I found interesting, and frankly, a little insulting, is that I couldn’t find a podcast that gave the Boilermakers a path forward. A couple acknowledged that Purdue might be able to hang around a little while … maybe, but for the most part, they were eager to discuss other games because the Purdue vs Houston game is a lock.
If y’all have read any of my other previews, and I’m assuming you have, this will be a slight departure from my regular article. Instead of telling you how Houston will beat Purdue, I’m going to tell you how Purdue can pull the upset on Friday night.
Houston on Offense
The first thing you need to understand about the Houston offense is that it was shipped in via time machine from the ‘90s. Kelvin Sampson does not have time for your analytics. Oddly enough, they go against analytics, which makes them tough to guard. They shoot the ball from places other teams ignore. Sometimes, their guards will pull up and take a twelve-foot jumper, and the defender won’t contest because he’s still trying to defend the rim. Seeing a twelve-foot jump shot is like seeing Indiana have a successful basketball season. You’ve heard of it, but only from old timers who are still upset about the advent of the shot clock.
Here’s the thing: the Cougars taking a bunch of pull-ups from the mid-range, and floaters in the lane play directly into Purdue’s hands. Houston is 278th in the nation in 2-point make percentage at 48.8%. As we all know, Purdue’s Achilles’ heel is interior defense. The Boilermakers’ lack of rim protection has resulted in the hemorrhaging of points around the basket, but Houston doesn’t challenge the rim that often. I watched the Gonzaga game, and most of their interior shots occurred well outside of the restricted area.
Their bigs were more apt to flip a shot up at the rim than put their head down and get to the rim. I noticed the same thing with their guards. They’re not a super long team. Like Purdue, they don’t start a traditional wing and instead play two point guards and a combo guard. They can get to the rim, but it’s not what they’re best at, and that’s where teams hurt Purdue the most. I don’t think Houston has the type of team that Purdue struggles to defend.
Athletic wings have been the downfall of Matt Painter’s squad this season. Guys like John Tonje, Will Riley, and Micah Parrish have given them fits because they don’t have anyone who matches up physically. Houston doesn’t have that type of player. The same goes for the inside. Don’t get me wrong, at 6’8”, 230ish, both J’Wan Robert and Joeseph Tugler are big, beefy lads, but Purdue can equal their beef down low with their own pair of 230ish-pound post players.
If a game was ever built for Caleb Furst, this is the game. Tugler and Roberts aren’t going to try to play over him; they will try to play through his chest. I’m not sure a player in the country is better prepared to stop a similarly sized guy from playing through his chest than Caleb. If guarding Zach Edey in practice taught him anything, it’s how to survive in the post against a bulldozer, and he’s not giving up five inches and seventy pounds like he did against Zach in practice. Houston thrives on bullying skinny shot-blocking bigs, but Purdue doesn’t have one of those to victimize. The Boilermakers can also play two traditional big guys at the same time, and in fact, that’s their default. Houston doesn’t run up against a team that mirrors their size very often, but that’s what they face in Purdue on Friday, and it could give them issues.
Where I see Purdue’s hefty front line potentially causing problems for Houston is on the offensive glass. Kelvin Sampson’s squad attacks the offensive glass. They use their more compact post players to pin defenders under the basket while snagging an endless procession of mid-range misses caroming back out to the mid-range, as they tend to do. Several offensive rebounds the Zags allowed in the previous game came off shots that rebounded back out over their post players. I don’t think Houston will have as much luck collapsing the Boilermaker big guys under the basket. Purdue’s been going up against the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin all season. Houston’s a physical team, but they’re not going to shock Purdue, and TKR and Furst have been attempting to block out Zach Edey in practice most of their career. Much like on defense, they’re easier to rebound over than rebound through.
If Purdue can limit Houston’s offensive rebounds to under ten, and I think they’ve got a shot, this game could be close. Houston relies on those rebounds to counter their poor inside shooting. They also love to kick out offensive boards for open threes and victimized the Zags on multiple possessions where they got the initial defensive stop but still gave up a three because they couldn’t secure the rebound. It’s one of the most deflating plays in basketball, but I think Purdue is equipped to compete on the boards against this particular type of bully-ball frontcourt.
That brings me to what Houston does best: shoot threes. Shout out to Coach Sampson because he finally gave us the answer to “What if the Houston defense, but also three-point shooting?”. The good news for Purdue is that the three players who do most of their shooting are the three guys you expect to do most of their shooting if that makes sense. In terms of three-point shot quantity, Houston looks like this:
LJ Cryer: 110/257 – 43%
Emanuel Sharp: 77/182 – 42%
Milos Uzan: 55/126 – 44%
Coming in a distant fourth …
Terrance Arceneaux: 26/78 – 33%
This isn’t a game where Purdue has to worry about a big guy popping out and draining a three. Houston’s big guys are screeners, finishers, and rebounders, not shooters or passers.
Purdue has defended the three-point line well this season, giving up only 31%. Here’s some hopeful news for the Boilermaker faithful. Alabama has struggled against teams that defend the three well this season.
It’s pretty cut-and-dry for the Boilermakers. If they want to win this game, they’ve got to shut down Houston on the perimeter. Purdue has to turn this into a question of the Cougars’ ability to hit enough mid-range shots to beat them and hope that they can’t. One thing Purdue has working for them is the venue. They will be playing in the corner of a football stadium, which is not conducive to perimeter shooting.
Maybe the Boilermaker’s semi-home court advantage can pay dividends in more than crowd noise?
Last time I checked, hope is free…so here’s hoping they miss some open shots.
Purdue’s task is straightforward, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t extremely difficult. They’ll have a shot if they can keep the Cougars off the boards and limit their perimeter game. Unlike most pundits who haven’t watched the Boilermakers play this season, I think they’ve got a shot at accomplishing that goal.
Houston on Defense
Kelvin Sampson’s vaunted “Monster” trapping defense is the talk of the tournament, and for good reason. He’s put together the most efficient defense in college basketball. His team allows opponents to shoot 30.6% from three, good for twenty-fifth in the country, and 44.3% from two, putting them fifth. Their adjusted field goal percentage allowed is 45%, fourth in the country. Needless to say, this team gets after it on the defensive end. Despair not, though, Purdue faithful, I see a way forward for Matt Painter’s crew. It’s a narrow, treacherous path, but such is life when you’re playing a number one seed in the Sweet 16.
Purdue’s best shot at winning this game is using Houston’s trapping defense to their advantage. The Cougars’ defense is predicated on trapping the ball handler coming off ball screens and trapping the post. Once again, no player is better prepared for Houston’s “monster” traps than Purdue. It won’t be the first time someone has tried to trap the ball out of Braden Smith’s hands. Houston’s defense is a novelty for most teams, but not Purdue. Not only have teams trapped Braden all season, but Purdue, this group may be more well-versed at handling post-doubles than any team in modern college basketball history.
For me, the path forward for Purdue in this game revolves around Trey Kaufman-Renn in the post. Find me a group more versed in throwing the ball into the paint and then waiting for it to come back out after a double team. Smith, Loyer, Heide, and Colvin spent the entire Zach Edey era feeding the post and spotting up around the perimeter. If Houston traps TKR in the post, and I expect them to trap TKR in the post, Purdue’s perimeter ball movement and shooting can win the game. Most teams panic when they get trapped, but the Purdue team that made it to the Championship game last season was built around punishing the post-double.
Give me a wing entry from Loyer into TKR on the low block with Braden in the strong side corner, and if Houston wants to trap TKR, let the game of “move the ball around the perimeter until a three opens up” commence. Purdue lives to make the extra pass, and the extra pass can beat this Houston defense because it’s perpetually in rotation. That doesn’t hurt them against teams that like to pound the ball into the court and drive it, but Purdue doesn’t have to do that to score. They can and will move the ball around without it touching the floor until it lands in the hands of the open shooter.
This is not a game Braden will win by dribbling the air out of the ball at the top of the key and trying to create off the dribble. Stagnation is death against Houston. As soon as the ball stops moving, they swarm. Braden needs to do his work off the ball. He’s easy to trap when he has the ball, but when he’s on the wing, he can catch and either shoot or drive with or without a screen. I love Purdue’s pick-and-roll game, but they should save it for when they truly need a bucket. If Houston is allowed to sit on that play, it will be a long, frustrating night for Purdue, ending in a double-digit loss.
That brings me to turnovers.
Houston thrives on turnovers; 21.5% of their opponents’ possessions end in turnovers. That’s the selling point of the “monster” traps. The Cougars want to take the ball away from you on defense and then hold it on offense, and eventually, the shot differential alone wins them the game. Trey backing a defender down in the paint can’t be the offense’s focal point. Houston is too good at bringing the trap and poking the ball away from the backside. When the ball goes into Trey deep, he either needs to make his move off the catch or be ready to kick it back out as soon it arrives. I anticipate Houston trapping off the pass, not the catch, so defenders will be on the way when the ball is in the air. It’s up to Trey to make quick decisions and get the ball moving.
No turnover discussion about Purdue can be complete without mentioning Braden Smith. High Point and McNeese loaded up to stop Braden and succeeded for the most part. He put up 20 against High Point, but it took him 19 shots. He still had six assists but paired them with three turnovers. Braden was more selective with his shots against McNeese, scoring ten points on seven attempts, but paired five assists with an uncharacteristic eight turnovers, most on attempted pick-and-rolls.
Kelvin Sampson isn’t going to let him win the game, but he’ll encourage him to lose it. He’s going to be harassed from the moment he steps onto the court. The Boilermakers need him to be cool, calm, and collected and not force the ball into the heart of the Cougar defense, especially off the dribble. If he’s been saving a Carson Edwards-like shooting performance for one tournament game, this would be the game. That means less dribbling and more shooting. If they plan on pulling the upset, the Boilermakers will need those shots to drop. Missed shots won’t kill you against Houston, but live-ball turnovers will. Braden needs to get the ball on the rim when in doubt instead of trying to snake a pass through a tight window. That will cut down on turnovers and allow Purdue to attack the offensive boards, which brings me to my last point.
As much as the pundits like to talk about how tough Houston is on the glass, they’re not a good defensive-rebounding team. They spend so much time trapping and rotating that it’s hard to find people when a shot goes up. Purdue can gain a few much-needed possessions by attacking the offensive glass. When Houston leaves a guy open in their rotation, that player needs to go to the glass on a missed shot. Gonzaga could only muster five offensive rebounds to Houston’s thirteen. If they tighten that margin a little, the entire game changes. Purdue must keep the turnovers to a reasonable number and crash the glass to have a chance in this one, and both of those things are within their skill set.
Overall
Purdue has a better shot to win this game than most people think. I keep reading that Houston is a “bad matchup” for Purdue, and I don’t see it. In fact, I like this matchup for Purdue more than the Cougs. Physically, they don’t share the same profile as teams that have bothered the Boilermakers this season. They don’t have the long-limbed athletes that give Braden fits or a dominant wing that Purdue can’t defend. Houston is the favorite for a reason, and it will take Purdue’s A game to win, but Purdue’s A game is better than Houston’s A game. It’s hard to play your “A” game against Houston. That’s Purdue’s task tonight. If they bring their “A” game, they can cut the nets down in Indy on Saturday.
Prediction
KenPom
Purdue – 64
Houston – 71
Confidence – 73%
Drew
Purdue 73
Houston 69
This is why I don’t bet on sports. I’m too invested. This isn’t a smart pick on my part. KenPom thinks Houston wins three out of four against Purdue, and that’s probably correct, but this is what the score will look like if the Boilermakers manage to hit the one in the one-in-four equation tonight.
Trey and Braden combine for 40, and Loyer, Colvin, Cox, and Heide provide enough shooting to cover the other 33. It’s not what I think will happen, but it could happen, and it’s what I want to happen.