Here’s more information on Gonzaga than you probably care to read.
Gonzaga University
Basic Information
Location: Spokane, Washington
Type of School: Private Jesuit Liberal Arts University
Mascot: Spike the Bulldog
Team Record and Ranking
Overall Record: 27-7
West Coast Conference Record: 14-2
KenPom Ranking: 12
Coaching
Head Coach: Mark Few
Seasons as a Head Coach: 25
Seasons at Gonzaga: 25
Career Record: 716-142
Conference Championships: 22
Tournament Championships: 19
NCAA Tournament Appearances: 24 (43-23)
Final 4 Appearances: 2
NCAA Championships: 0
Kenpom Style of Play
() = National Ranking per Kenpom
Offense
Adj. Efficiency: 116.4 (31)
Avg. Poss. Length: 17.1 (116)
Defense
Adj. Efficiency: 122.3 (7)
Avg. Poss. Length: 16.3 (46)
Tempo
Adj. Tempo: 69.1 (86)
Kenpom 4 Factors
() = National Ranking per Kenpom
Offense
Effective FG%: 57.1 (7)
Turnover %: 14.1 (21)
Off. Reb. %: 33.3 (52)
FTA/FGA: 31.3 (226)
Defense
Effective FG%: 46.8 (24)
Turnover %: 16.1 (246)
Off. Reb. %: 27.5 (106)
FTA/FGA: 25.4 (20)
Personnel
2023-2024 Regular Season Awards
Graham Ike
All-WCC
Anton Watson
All-WCC
All-WCC Tournament Team
Nolan Hickman
All-WCC
Ryan Nembhard
All-WCC
Braden Huff
All-Freshman WCC
Key Tournament Performers
1st Round vs McNeese State
Graham Ike: 16 Pts, 10 Reb, FG% 100 (6-6), FT% 100 (6-6)
Ben Gregg: 12 Pts, 5 Reb, 3Pt 50% (2-4)
Anton Watson: 13 Pts, 9 Ast, 13 Reb
2nd Round vs Kansas
Anton Watson: 21 Pts, 6 Reb, 2 Blk
Nolan Hickman: 17 Pts, 3Pt 75% (3-4)
Ben Gregg: 15 Pts, 9 Reb, 3Pt 100% (2-2)
Gonzaga on Offense
Key Players
There are plenty of talented players to choose from on this Gonzaga team, but for my money, Anton Watson is the Zags’ most important player. He’s seen it all over his 5 seasons in Spokane and is making the most of his last ride. He made every shot he attempted in the first round (including free throws) on his way to a near triple-double and led his team in scoring with 21 against Kansas. He also presents a unique challenge to the Purdue defense.
Watson playing small forward, instead of power forward like he did in Maui, is what makes this match-up significantly different. Purdue starts two big — that’s 1 more than most teams and 2 more than some. Gonzaga starts 3 guys that could and do play the 4-5. Watson on the wing is an issue for Fletcher Loyer. Fletch is looking at a 6’8” wing who is second on Gonzaga in both scoring and rebounding.
The addition of a 3rd big gives Painter one of two options.
He can rotate Loyer and Jones at the 2 and Smith and Jones at the 1, take a guard off the court, and have Gillis and Heide match up at the 3 on Watson — limiting Watson’s size and rebounding advantage. Purdue loses some passing and playmaking in this scenario but gains size while keeping a shooter on the floor at the 3.
or
He can go with Fletch and hope his offense cancels out Watson. In this scenario, Loyer bites down on his mouth guard and does his best to stay with Anton on defense and then get after him on the other side of the court. Rebounding worries me the most. Zach and Kaufman-Renn are good enough to mitigate that, but I anticipate Gonzaga pulling one of them outside.
Either way, Watson is going to force Matt Painter to make a choice. I think you’ll see Loyer start and play until it’s clear he can’t keep up. If Watson gets hot or terrorizes Purdue on the glass, I’m not sure what you’re going to get. My guess is Heide, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Matt dusts off Ethan Morton for a few possessions in this one. I don’t think Purdue wants to play Gillis at the 3 but it’s nice to have that option available if the Zags start to hurt Purdue inside.
Ben Gregg’s emergence at the 4 allows Mark Few to bump Watson out to the wing. At 6’10”, 230, Gregg looks like a traditional 4, if not a 5. The problem is, he shoots it like a wing. He’s 3rd on the team in attempts behind guards Nembhard and Hickman, but he’s quickly closing the gap on Nolan. He’s attempted 104 3’s this season and has hit 40 (39%). Gregg not only has the highest offensive rating on the team (according to KenPom); he has the 7th highest offensive rating in the nation. He’s Gonzaga’s version of Mason Gillis, except he’s 6’10. Kaufmann-Renn has to take Gregg because the defense relies on Zach’s rim protection.
Whoever ends up on Gregg can’t cheat off to help the paint because he is one of the hottest shooters in the tournament, hitting 4 of his 6 attempts. He’s not a volume guy, but he’s going to drill an open 3 in rhythm. The Boilermakers should skip the part where they challenge him to “prove it” because I’ve seen the film, and he’s proven it.
It’s weird getting to the leading scorer 3rd, but Purdue already knows what’s up with Graham Ike; the Gregg/Watson combo is different from Maui. Ike a skilled post player that relies on angles and strength to carve out space and finish around the rim. He’s not much of a shooter, but interestingly enough, 6 of his 15 attempts on the season came against Purdue. Players like Graham often struggle against Purdue because it’s extremely hard to find any sort of angle with Zach anchoring the defense and while Graham is strong, he’s not strong enough to push Edey off the block. He put up 14 in Maui, hitting all 4 of his 2-point attempts, but 4 attempts are tied for his lowest number of attempts on the season. His other 4 attempt games came against Donovan Clingan and UConn.
It’s a small sample size, but it appears having a giant center protecting the rim takes away some of what Ike does best. It’s imperative that Zach stay around the basket, not only for rebounding but also for rim protection. Gonzaga has the shooters to make doubling the post an issue. I anticipate Graham going into Zach’s chest in an attempt to draw fouls early and often. Mark Few will gladly sacrifice a few first-half possessions in hopes of putting the best player of the tournament on the bench.
That brings me to Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard. The backcourt duo for Gonzaga has been rock solid all season. That’s helpful because they don’t play anyone else at guard. Nembhard has struggled with his outside shot all season, and I expect Purdue to politely offer him the opportunity to shake off his season-long shooting slump. Look for the Boilermakers to go under screens involving Nembhard in an attempt to cut off his drive and keep him out of the lane.
The lane is where the former Creighton guard thrives. His 30% (65) assist rate leads the team. Ideally, Nembhard wants to get into the lane, force the defense to collapse, and then pick out whichever shooter is open on the perimeter. He’s also adept at dropping off precision passes to either Watson or Ike flying in from the wing or as the roll man. Purdue wants to challenge Ryan Nembhard to beat them with his shot and not his passing ability. Look for the Boilermakers to sag off when he does enter the lane, play him as a passer, and ask him to win the game for the Zags with floaters in the lane. Purdue baited him into 17 field goals attempts the first time around, including a 1-9 performance from 3. I expect the same on Friday.
Last, but certainly not least (as far as the starters go) is Nolan Hickman. He’s the other guy I have circled on Gonzaga. Hickman could be the key to the game for both teams. Above everything else, shot-makers hurt Purdue. When Purdue loses (and it doesn’t happen often) it tends to involve a shot-maker going off. Buie put up 31 in Purdue’s loss to Northwestern. Tominaga (a different type of shot-maker) hit 5-9 from deep in Nebraska’s win. Bruce Thornton tuned up Purdue for 22 points. AJ Storr and a rested Chucky Hepburn put up 20 and 22 respectively in Purdue’s Big 10 tournament loss to Wisconsin.
As good as Gonzaga’s frontcourt is, frontcourts don’t tend to beat Purdue. Utah State (not remotely on the same level as Purdue) relied on their frontcourt to score, and well, they didn’t score very often. Meanwhile, Grambling State’s Tra’Michael Moton put up 21 on the Boilers as a shot-maker.
Hickman can play that role for Gonzaga. If someone is going to beat Purdue hitting mid-range jumpers, it’s Hickman. He’s a smooth operator capable of sticking open mid-range jumpers and finishing at weird angles around the rim. Like Nembhard, Purdue challenged Hickman to take shots in Maui. He got up 14 but only managed 11 points. If he does that on Friday, Purdue wins. Mark Few needs Hickman to score because of Purdue’s drop defense. He needs him to pull up and hit free-throw line jumpers over Edey’s outstretched fingers. If that happens, this is going to be a dogfight to the end. If Hickman shoots 35% from the floor again, Purdue rolls.
The bench for Mark Few is easy to manage. When someone in the frontcourt needs a break, Braden Huff hits the court. When a guard needs a break (which is rare), Dusty Stromer gets the call. A member of the WCC All-Freshman team, Huff is the future in the post for Mark Few. He’s a skilled and mobile 6’10”, 235. He’s a 33% 3-point shooter, attempting 4 and hitting 1 against Purdue in November. He’s a “prove-it” shooter in my book. I’ll take another 1-4 performance. Meanwhile, Stromer started the season in the starting lineup but was relegated to the bench to make way for Ben Gregg midway through the season. He’s a long athletic wing with a decent stroke (36%) from outside. The Zags have talent on their bench but it’s young. It will be interesting to see how they respond to NCAA tournament pressure (they’ve yet to face any).
Gonzaga Playing Style – Offense
Like most Mark Few-led teams, Gonzaga wants to push the ball in transition and score early in the clock. Their average possession length of 16.3 is good for 46th in the country. That’s the sweet spot for me. They take what they can find in transition and the secondary break but don’t force it and turn the ball over. In the immortal words of John Wooden, they “play fast, but don’t hurry.”
When the game slows down, Gonzaga normally wants to get the ball into the paint. Their best scorers are Ike and Watson. The only team that runs more post-ups is…Purdue. In Maui, they went away from that. Their normal post-heavy offense flipped to the outside, and they launched 32, 3’s. Many of these 3’s came from post-up players because Mark Few was desperate to drag Edey out of the lane to give his big men space to work. I’ve yet to see a team actually punish Purdue like this. Maybe Nebraska with Rink Mast, but in general, bigs hitting 3s don’t happen against Purdue, but not enough to hurt the Boilers. Matt will let sub-35% 3-point shooters chuck away all game.
I think they play normal Gonzaga basketball in this game. I’ve watched pretty much every game of Zach Edey’s career, and the teams that tend to bother him on offense are the teams that go at him. His arms are too long. If you give him space on defense, he’s going to block, or at least significantly alter, the shot. When teams go at him and get into his chest it takes that away. Throw in the fact that he plays not to foul, and as counter-intuitive as it seems, going straight at Purdue’s giant, while not a great plan, is significantly better than trying to go around him. Throw in the fact that every shot Zach contests is an opportunity for the refs to blow the whistle, and going at Zach, as unpalatable as it may be to get a few shots erased, is the only way forward against Purdue. I don’t like Gonzaga’s chances if Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard have to shoot floaters to beat Purdue. As I mentioned above, I think Purdue will invite them to attempt it.
Gonzaga on Defense
As always, the first and most important question.
How are they going to try and stop Zach?
If Maui (and the regular season) is any indication; they’re going to play Zach straight up and do their best to push him away from the basket on the catch. He scored 25 points against that defense in Maui but did “only” shoot 8-16 from the field. Holding Zach 12% below his season average of 62%, in terms of field goal percentage, has to be considered a win. That’s right folks, holding Zach Edey to 25 points on 8-16 shooting is considered a win.
I talked about shot-makers for Gonzaga, but Purdue is going to need a shot-maker in this game as well. Playing Zach straight up and not fouling him every time down the court puts pressure on the surrounding cast. Those wide-open 3’s Smith, Loyer, Jones, and Gillis normally get off of Zach kick-outs will now be contested. In Maui, Braden and Lance both chipped in 13 points but Purdue, as a team, shot poorly against the Zags. 4 of 17 from behind the arc got it done in Maui because Gonzaga couldn’t shoot either. I’m afraid 4-17 will get Purdue blown out in Detroit.
Mark Few is going to disconnect Purdue’s offense and make the perimeter players win off the dribble. They’re going to make getting the ball into Zach tough, but they’re not going to swarm him. Purdue wants to shoot 3’s, score in the paint, and hit free throws. Zach is going to score in the paint. Purdue is probably going to hit a fair number of free throws. The weak spot teams ignore because Zach is such a dominant scorer is 3-point shooting.
Granted, Purdue is the best 3-point shooting team in the nation, hitting 41% on the season, but many of those are wide-open 3’s because Zach has the entire defense compressed below the foul line. That’s not going to happen against Gonzaga. The guards are going to have to step up and hit contested shots. If they do, Purdue wins…easily. If this game turns into Zach Edey vs Gonzaga on offense because the guards and forwards won’t pull the trigger (please pull the trigger Mason) with a hand in their face, Mark Few will be a happy coach.
Prediction
KenPom
Purdue – 81
Gonzaga – 77
Confidence – 66%
Drew
Purdue – 89
Gonzaga – 81
If this game plays out like I think; we’re in for a treat. Mark Few is going to come out and play basketball against Purdue and that’s where the Boilermakers are at their best. Earlier in the season Gonzaga broke character and chucked a crazy number of 3’s to try and pull Zach out of the paint.
I think they go at the big man on Friday night.
I just don’t think they have enough on offense or defense to slow down Purdue’s grist mill offense. It’s fun to say “we’re not going to double Zach” on a sunny Thursday afternoon (at least where I am) but it’s another proposition all together when he’s sitting on 30 points with 10 minutes left in the game and your important front court players start their permanent march to the bench after collecting their 5th foul.
The Boilermakers dominate this game down the stretch and head to the Elite 8.