Don’t change perfection.
Every offseason you’ll hear a coach or an Athletic Director saying that it’s time to expand the NCAA Tournament. There are deserving teams that didn’t get in and with conference expansion it just makes sense for more teams to make it in. We hear this all the time because so often the bonuses of both coaches and ADs is based upon hitting goals like making the NCAA Tournament and advancing forward in it. You can’t advance if you don’t make it in. Plus, for coaches if you miss the tournament you could be headed toward the unemployment line very soon.
The argument always notes that the tournament has expanded a number of times already and that it only makes sense to continue expanding as the number of Division I college basketball teams expand and honestly, I get that. It makes sense. Here’s a look at the size of the tournament throughout the years.
- 1939: The first tournament featured 8 teams.
- 1951: The field doubled to 16 teams. (it fluctuated here until official expansion in 1979.)
- 1974: Not an expansion, but more than one team from each conference was permitted.
- 1979: The tournament expanded to 40 teams.
- 1980: The tournament grew to 48 teams.
- 1983: The tournament had 52 teams.
- 1984: The tournament had 53 teams.
- 1985: The first tournament with the 64 team format we all know and love.
- 2001: A 65th team was added via a play-in game.
- 2011: The “First Four” in Dayton was introduced, expanding the field to 68 teams.
And there we sit. A lot of people will point to a 2023 NCAA Committee report that recommended that 25% of teams make their postseason tournaments. Right now, the men’s basketball tournament doesn’t hit that goal. As of this writing there are 364 division I basketball teams (there were approximately 282 in 1985). That means that right now 18% of division one teams make it to the postseason (yes I know the NCAA Tournament isn’t the only postseason tournament but it’s the only one that matters.). In 1985 it was just about 22.6%. In order to reach the 25% goal set by the NCAA itself, the current NCAA Tournament would need to allow in 92 teams (since it equals out to 91.25 I rounded up). That would be an expansion of 24 teams. That seems ridiculous to me.
I couldn’t find exact numbers on the amount of division I teams throughout the history of men’s basketball so I don’t have a good one to one comparison here, but suffice to say the percentage of teams represented has gone down over the years as the expansion of the tournament has crawled while the number of division I teams has exploded.
The folks who want expansion are the high major ADs and coaches who are playing more expanded conference schedules and facing tougher teams night in and night out. If you end the regular season 17-15 in a major conference like the Big Ten do you really deserve to get in over a mid-major with 20+ wins in a terrible conference? I fear that what we would have are more spots for the high majors with the small teams and the possible Cinderellas being left out of the (basket)ball yet again.
So yes, the arguments for NCAA Tournament expansion makes sense, and I know if they expanded it I would watch it, but it just doesn’t feel right. Unless they can guarantee me that these new spots will be reserved for mid-majors I think we could be in for more major conference teams bullying their way in without truly earning it. IU for instance did not deserve to get in last year. With an expanded tournament I fear they would have made it. Is that really what we want? I don’t think so. Until I see some guarantees, this expansion just isn’t for me.