Betting on the game? Here are 3 things to keep in mind.
I try and write these DraftKings articles differently than my Purdue articles. I don’t personally bet on sports, not because I’m morally opposed, but because I don’t necessarily trust myself. I do, however, have a fairly decent understanding of sports gambling and I know way too much about Purdue basketball.
Here are 3 things to consider, from the Purdue perspective, if you intend on putting money down on this game.
Current Odds (per Draftkings)
Spread
Purdue: – 5.5
Total
U 154.5
Money Line:
Purdue: -238
Gonzaga: +195
(Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See DraftKings.com/sportsbook for details.)
Spread Key 1
Purdue Finds a 3rd Scorer
Purdue’s giving up 5.5 points in this game. If you like the Boilermakers to cover, you’re going to need either Fletcher Loyer or Lance Jones to join Zach Edey and Braden Smith on offense. Braden has proven himself as a trusty sidekick this season, but one of the other two guards will need to get into the scoring act.
In a weird way, taking Purdue – 5.5 is more a bet on either Fletcher Loyer or Lance Jones than Zach Edey or Braden Smith. Purdue’s supporting cast has been exceptional all season. At the same time, Gonzaga presents a different challenge with their 3-big lineup. If you like either Jones or Loyer going for 15+ (or combining for 25+), I would take Purdue and the points.
If you think Purdue struggles against Gonzaga’s big lineup, and Loyer and Jones struggle, take the Zags.
Purdue can still win the game straight up if Loyer and Jones both struggle. Zach Edey is that good, but I don’t see the potential for a cover in that scenario.
Spread Key 2: Foul Trouble
Gonzaga and Purdue have a problem. They both want to score in the paint. At the same time, the players that score in the paint also have to defend players that want to score in the paint (does that make sense?)
Purdue won’t be able to hide Zach on a non-shooter because there aren’t any of those in Gonzaga’s starting frontcourt. I assume he’ll be on Graham Ike.
If you think Ike can take the ball at Zach and get him in foul trouble, take the Zags. Foul trouble, especially early foul trouble, is tough for Purdue to deal with because both their offense and post defense rely on Edey. If Zach is on the bench, Purdue not only loses their best scorer, but the anchor of their defense.
The more likely outcome is Zach Edey getting Ike in foul trouble. Ike is talented, but he’s no Zach Edey, and if he spends too much time guarding the big man, he’ll be on the bench. Even if you try to avoid fouling Zach, you’re going to foul Zach. A game played at a high tempo means more touches for Zach, and more touches for Zach means more fouls on the opponent.
Gonzaga can overcome one of their big guys getting in foul trouble. Purdue can’t afford Edey to get into foul trouble.
Total Key – Over 154.5
I like the over in this game. My predicted score in the Gonzaga preview is Purdue 89 – Gonzaga 81. Needless to say, I would take the over.
Tempo and outside shooting is why I like the over despite the earlier game in Maui ending 73-63. It took the teams hitting a combined 10-49 from deep in Maui to keep things under 154.5, and I don’t expect that type of performance from two of the best outside shooting teams in the country the second time around.
Gonzaga likes to play fast, and Purdue likes it when teams play fast. People unfamiliar with Purdue’s style of play may assume that the Boilers are a team that plods up and down the court, but that’s simply not true. The Boilermakers will play as fast as their opponent will let them play, and the Bulldogs are going to play basketball.
If you like the over, you like Purdue and Gonzaga hitting outside shots, unlike the first game.
If you like the under, you think one or both teams struggle from deep.
Overall
I like Purdue to beat the spread and the game to hit the over. Then again, I write for a Purdue blog and have already admitted I don’t have any money on this game. Do with that information as you will.
If you’re looking for a more in-depth look at Gonzaga to help answer a few of the questions I asked above, check out my in-depth preview here.