Will Purdue make it back to the Sweet 16?
With another Purdue game just around the corner I wanted to again ask each member of the staff to provide their insight. Everyone who provided a prediction for Thursday’s game selected Purdue to win, no surprise of course, but Drew was very close to picking the exact score so maybe pay a bit more attention to us huh?
Ledman:
As a lifelong Purdue fan the second half of the McNeese vs. Clemson First Round matchup was eerily familiar. McNeese went into halftime up 31-13 and it seemed like the game was over. I mean, only scoring 13 points in an NCAA Tournament half? That’s just two points above the record low of 11. Clemson was DOA. However, not so fast my friend! Clemson used some hot three point shooting down the stretch to finish the game losing just by a two point margin 69-67. It was eerily familiar to how Purdue has let so many teams back in games this season. Allow the shooters to get hot, the offense gets stagnant, and suddenly you’re in a fight for your life.
Does that give me hope for tomorrow’s game? It does. I think this McNeese team has some talented players but that they are also a flawed team. But who isn’t? We just recognize Purdue’s flaws because we’ve seen them play 30+ games this season. It’s been an up and down season for Purdue but I think that Purdue will once again go into this game with the two best players on the court in Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn. I don’t think McNeese will be able to stop TKR and if they try and double him the resurgence of Camden Heide from beyond the arc could be big. I’m taking Purdue here knowing it’s going to be a nail biter.
Purdue 73
McNeese 68
Kyle:
McNeese is ultra athletic, but they lack true size in the post, where Purdue hangs their hat.
While they will suffocate Renn with help defense, if Purdue can hit outside shots, they will be just fine, part of that is not being afraid to take those outside shots.
Colvin and Heide will need to have good games again to match the Athleticism of the Cowboys.
Purdue 72
McNeese 66
Ryan:
This McNeese team doesn’t quite have the offensive firepower that High Point does, but they get to the ball and hustle at all times. And while everyone sees that McNeese held Clemson to 13, first half points, the Tigers really just kept shooting themselves in the foot. 1-15 from 3 and 10 turnovers really digs a hole and even a 54-point second half couldn’t save them. Purdue’s game plan should be simple: stay in front of McNeese and get the ball into Trey in the paint. Purdue showed that they can play defense in front of guys against High Point and we all know they can get it to Trey inside.
Purdue 76
McNeese 63
Chase:
The scariest thing about watching McNeese dominate Clemson was seeing their length and athleticism cause the Clemson guards problems on defense. It’s the type of player that causes problems for Fletcher Loyer specifically, and if they continue to mix in some zone, Purdue tends to struggle against that as well.
Purdue’s 2-point defense will also be tested against McNeese’s slashers. As long as they can limit paint touches and get the ball to TKR in good spots consistently, they should be able to come out on top. I don’t expect it to be pretty, and I don’t expect it to be comfortable.
Purdue 68
McNeese 62
Drew:
Purdue 82
McNeese 74
I’m going out on a limb, but I went out on a similar limb in the first round and almost nailed the final score. I like this matchup for Purdue. They don’t have the type of interior game that bothers Purdue. The Boilermakers should be able to play with Heide at the 4 most of the game without giving up any size, and that’s when the Boilermakers are at their best. That said, this is a solid matchup for Furst, whose ability to defend on the perimeter should be a huge plus, and his inability to block shots should be somewhat mitigated.
This game will be close throughout, and McNeese may even lead at points, but I trust the Boilermakers when it comes down to winning time against the Cowboys. Clemson gave them a lap head start and came close to clipping them in the end; as long as Purdue doesn’t put up 13 points in the first half, I like their chances in this one.
Purdue 82
McNeese 74
Jed:
This is a difficult one to predict but McNeese’s non-conference slate did have some really good matchups to get a good read on. They played tough in losses to Alabama, Liberty, and Mississippi State before getting into their conference slate in the Southland. The Southland, as a conference, is rated below the Big South Conference where High Point plays. We also know how poor the ACC was as a conference this season and their performance so far this tourney doesn’t make Clemson’s showing any better for the Cowboys.
This McNeese State team is ranked around a few different Purdue opponents this season, notably Penn State and Nebraska. Those are the best comps for what this Purdue team will face as both of those programs play a similar defensive style. So what should we see from the Boilers?
McNeese hasn’t faced a post player of the caliber of TKR and it is likely they are either going to have to be ok with him having a huge game while trying to limit three point shots from others or they will have to double and hope Purdue doesn’t make them pay. They certainly don’t have the experience against a guard like Braden Smith either and when you put those two together, Purdue is going to employ a lot of different looks to generate the shots they need. What it will come down to is simple. Can Purdue hit the shots they need to?
Smith has been a bit inefficient the last few games but Purdue wants him to remain aggressive. That aggressiveness, even when he isn’t scoring at a high rate, opens up the offense for everyone else on the floor. Against McNeese, I fully expect Smith and TKR to play up to their level and for everyone around them to support them as needed.
Purdue: 82
McNeese: 73