Can Purdue pull off the upset?
With the Purdue game approximately 15 hours away…ugh…it’s time to go on the record and plant your flag. Will Purdue come away with the upset victory over 1 seed Houston? Last night we watched all the higher seeded (or is it lower seeded?) teams defeat their opponents. What I’m trying to say is the two 1 seeds, a 2 seed, and a 3 seed won. There were no upsets. So, can Purdue take down a 1 seed? I asked the staff.
Jed:
This is where Purdue can make a statement on a season that has been good but not great. This is likely the best matchup against a one seed that Purdue could hope for considering Houston lacks overall height, something that has given Purdue issues all season both inside and on the perimeter. Houston also plays a very slow pace of basketball and that has played into Purdue’s favor this season as Purdue owns of the most efficient offenses in the country. This could very well become a game where the team that is able to maintain their efficiency the most throughout the game is going to win.
Purdue showed it has that capability against Alabama and Maryland this season that it can maintain an efficiency to their offense. That puts a ton of pressure on an opponent when they know there are going to be limited offensive opportunities to be perfect.
Houston has as good of a three guard lineup with Cryer, Uzan, and Sharp that all shoot at an incredibly high percentage from behind the arc. That is, however ironically it might be, something Purdue has done very well defensively this season as they have allowed opponents to shoot 31% from behind the arc.
Houston is going to come at you in the classic Kelvin Sampson manner with in your face man to man defense that looks to disrupt your offensive flow and then run offense to generate good looks of their own. It’s a formula that has obviously worked well for them as they currently have the nation’s longest winning streak at 15 games. Can the Boilers do enough offensively to not suddenly find themselves fighting to keep within distance? That’s going to be the biggest question to answer as the game unfolds.
Trey Kaufman-Renn is going to be the best low post scoring threat the Cougars have seen all year. He has shown up consistently all season and there is no reason to believe he can’t do it again. If Purdue can get big games from both TKR and Smith combining to score 40+ that are efficient while getting 20+ points in bench production like they have seen the previous two games, Purdue can 100% walk out of that arena with a chance at a Final Four on the line on Sunday evening.
Do I take the homer stance and say this is going to be a Purdue victory or the rationale one that says Purdue is just a step below this level of team this year? I’m going to have to go with the rationale part of my fandom and think Purdue loses in a tight one with LJ Cryer taking over late to get the Cougars into the Elite 8.
Purdue: 70
Houston: 76
Ryan:
I can see this going one of two ways: Purdue wins this game by the skin of their teeth or the Boilermakers lose by 20. I really appreciate the job that Matt Painter does to gameplan for teams (yes, he does, in fact, make adjustments) much like he did against McNeese. Now, Houston is a bit harder to gameplan for than McNeese or High Point but if Purdue can find a way to get the ball in low to Trey and stay in front of the Houston guards (do I sound like a broken record yet), Purdue will have a shot. At that point, you pin the 7th most efficient offense in the country against the 10th most efficient. That’s where I have Purdue barely winning. Helping the fact is the location of the game and my hope is that Kentucky can beat Tennessee since the UK fans are more likely to be pro-Purdue than the Tennessee fans (plus I really don’t want to hear Rocky Top 500 times Sunday if Purdue does win). Altogether, I am going to remain optimistic.
Purdue 71
Houston 67
Ledman:
I want to be a homer. I generally am a homer. I’ve been a Purdue fan my whole life and am always rooting for the Boilermakers to win it all every single season. This season I’m elated to be back in the Sweet 16 thanks to the sheer star power of Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn. The supporting cast has been great too, don’t get me wrong, but Purdue is in the Sweet 16 because of those two players. If Purdue is going to pull off the upset tonight they are going to have to do it with some great defense on the Houston shooters, taking care of the basketball, and rebounding. Now, I know that sounds easy, and simplistic, but while it is in fact simplistic it will not be easy. Houston has the best defense in the country according to KenPom and a top 11 offense as well.
I watched the Round of 32 matchup with Gonzaga and Houston didn’t look like an unbeatable super team. They have flaws. Flaws that can be exploited. Matt Painter and staff will need to come in with a plan and execute almost flawlessly. Make no mistake though, you can think what you want about Kelvin Sampson, and believe me I do, but he is a good coach. The man knows everything there is to know about basketball. To quote The Hunger Games series, this game will be about moves and countermoves. Which team can execute their game plan and respond to their opponent quicker before any damage is done. Purdue will have to find a way to slow down Cryer to win this one and I’m not sure Purdue can do that for 40 minutes.
Purdue 64
Houston 71