Some spread there this week

A Little Too Close for Comfort

Welp. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are still 2-0 even though they had a couple of rocky games to start the season. But, there is ANOTHER home game on Saturday, and the Irish will look to handle Purdue a bit better than FSU or Toledo. Winning is hard, and from the looks of things this season so far, covering is even harder. In the first two weeks, the Irish failed to cover the 7.5-point spread against FSU and the 16.5-point spread against Toledo. They won both games by 3 points. However, both overs hit in the games, which has been interesting. That was due in part to one or both teams having monster fourth quarters and putting up a ton of points. Let’s see how the betting numbers line up here for this third game.

ND vs. Purdue: Betting Lines

Right now, the Irish sit at exactly 7-point favorites. It is always danger when the spread is exactly a touchdown number. Additionally, the O/U is set at 58.5, which is a bit higher than we have seen in the past couple weeks, but not my much. As the moneyline suggests, the Irish are still pretty heavy home favorites despite insanely close games against decidedly weaker competition.

According to Oddsshark, the prediction is that the Irish could win by just about 8 points, which would be just enough to cover the spread. They also tell us that ND-Purdue games usually go under on the point total and they usually see Purdue covering the spread (4 out of the last 6). However, Purdue is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games, and the Irish are 1-4 in their last 5. There are definitely some interesting and conflicting trends here for this game.

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Matty G’s Predictions

I don’t want to get burned again. Plus, my strong optimism is not gone, it’s just fading a little bit. Therefore, I can see Purdue coming into ND Stadium looking to play the spoiler. Also, with the way the first two Irish games have gone, I am going to stick with the prediction of Purdue covering that 7-point spread or at the worst it will be a push. I think the Irish still win the game, but I unfortunately pick a closer game (I would love to be incredibly wrong).

Even though the trends suggest otherwise, I’m going to give the nod to the OVER here. For the OVER to hit, the score would need to be something like 31-28 or 34-28. I could see that being feasible with Purdue coming in hot and the Irish a bit on their heels. This will be a classic pain in the ass game against Purdue, but we have kind of expected those games never really to be runaway games.

DAMHSA BUA Count

The DAMHSA BUA total went UNDER last week, as I had it set at 5.5. This week, I’m going to set it at 4.5. I’ll stick with the OVER like always. Will the Irish score more than 4 TDs? Let us know in the weekly poll. Also, feel free to comment what you anticipate happening with the spread and the point total.

Go Irish. Beat Boilermakers.