Indiana’s nonconference scheduling is a smart move strategically. It’s not going to win them any fans outside of Bloomington.
Indiana’s move to cancel a nonconference series with Louisville was a shrewd, almost essential move when it happened in 2023.
Per reporting from Michael Niziolek at the Herald-Times, the program has made another, similar move in cancelling an upcoming series against Virginia. There’s a few differences this time around, but it’s worth revisiting the previous series cancellation.
Indiana and Louisville were set to meet three times, each receiving a home game after an opening neutral site matchup in Indianapolis. Instead, only said neutral site matchup was played, resulting in a loss for a then-spiraling Indiana program.
There’s pretty much never a “normal” time for college football, but 2023 was different. The Big Ten and SEC were consolidating power by adding big name, big money programs like USC, Oregon, Washington, Texas and Oklahoma (sorry, UCLA). Conferences like the Big 12 and ACC were left on their heels, struggling to survive while the Pac-12 all but died, now existing in a zombified state led by Washington State and Oregon State.
The Big Ten and SEC were already the two most powerful conferences in the sport prior to realignment. Poaching the biggest brands from those lesser conferences in a cold war only cemented their status as true super leagues.
And then another idea emerged. If big name programs could be added to bolster TV audiences in a war over broadcast dollars, surely smaller programs that dilute the product (and, more importantly, the money pot) could be cut… right?
It was perhaps this worry that led Indiana to make that scheduling move. In the landscape of college football, the Hoosiers have far more in common with the Oregon States and Washington States than the Texases, Oregons or even the Nebraskas and Missouris.
How could Indiana avoid that fate, should such a move come to pass? Win games. That means schedule winnable games. Which, in turn, means cancelling games that could be easily lost. Replace Louisville with, uhhhhhh Western Illinois or something. Turn a tossup into a win.
Indiana made the move to schedule lesser opponents in an attempt to ensure itself of three wins entering the Big Ten slate. From there, the Hoosiers would navigate whatever random schedule the conference game them to find three more and reach a bowl game, the barometer of success for programs of Indiana’s stature.
That was the vision when Indiana hired Curt Cignetti, who’d won everywhere he’d been. The Hoosiers would win those nonconference games and be good enough to reach the 6-8 win mark and play in the postseason.
… Then his first team went 11-1 in the regular season and made the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Well.
That requires some context by the way. Did Indiana benefit from a softer schedule than most? Certainly. Said schedule also contained three bowl eligible teams, including two who’d played for the national championship in 2023. Indiana went undefeated against those two teams. Did Indiana lose to the lone team on its regular season schedule to finish the season with a ranking? Yes. That team was Ohio State. That team won the national championship. That ranking was No. 1. Indiana’s only other loss was Notre Dame on the road, which was No. 2.
Also, Indiana definitely got some help. When the Ohio State loss seemingly put the Hoosiers’ playoff hopes in peril, Alabama and Ole Miss promptly lost to far, far worse teams than the Buckeyes. The Tide got blown out even! If that hadn’t happen, either had a case to get in the field over Indiana.
The 2024 Indiana Hoosiers had a dream season, controlling their own destiny by winning eleven football games and getting some help to keep their prime competition out of the field. It was a perfect storm.
So make no mistake, Indiana’s approach remains the same. Get those three nonconference wins and see if it can find three more in the Big Ten, controlling as much as it can in the process, which means scheduling winnable games.
Which brings us back to the Virginia news.
Indiana made the move to cancel the series against Louisville under Tom Allen. Curt Cignetti was pretty firmly at James Madison and had no say in the goings on at his future program.
Was it an Allen decision or one made by the athletic department? That answer is neither known nor does it matter. Indiana was going to need to make that move whether or not it kept Allen, who was let go after that 2023 season.
This time around, Cignetti’s in charge. I imagine he’ll be asked about it the next time he’s made available to the media, but for now there’s no way of knowing if it was his call or how he feels.
One thing is true: Cignetti is known for his bravado, the kinds of things he says about his team and his general demeanor as a coach. He’s been pretty open about that act being a strategic move to get a cautiously optimistic fanbase fired up ahead of his first season but, again, that season ended in the College Football Playoff. What was meant for the good of Indiana became relevant to the rest of the country when the Hoosiers became a national story, which is also true of the program’s nonconference scheduling strategy.
So it looks pretty contradictory when a coach carries himself a certain way and then his program promptly backs out of the only “challenging” nonconference game left on its schedule in the next few seasons.
Indiana is already getting ridicule for this move, just as it did when the program posted its nonconference schedule for the coming 2025 season (featuring Old Dominion, Indiana State and Kennesaw State). Should Indiana fans care about said ridicule? Well,
For one, sure. This is a move that looks contradictory to the program’s attitude and, unlike the Louisville decision, Cignetti was the head coach when it happened. Outward perception of a program matters, the people that talk about the sport nationally and recruits see stuff like this and tune into and participate in discourse.
On another hand, Indiana is giving itself a better shot to get to a bowl game. Virginia isn’t exactly some powerhouse, but fortunes can change in just one year (Indiana would know!). It’s a fanbase that’s had to watch game after game against Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State and finishes of three, four or five wins for years. Indiana can win games now and enter conference play needing just three victories to make it to the postseason. Who cares what anybody says? Fans probably have bowl game tickets and a program that wins games.
These nonconference scheduling moves are a double edged sword. Indiana trades likely wins for criticism. Only one shows up on a stat sheet though, and that’s worth more to the Hoosiers than whatever’s being said on ESPN or social media.