Here we go again (non-derogatory).
After finishing the season with a loss in the College Football Playoff and holding a spot in the final AP top-10, Curt Cignetti will look to keep momentum going in year two with Indiana. Or something like that.
Indiana will certainly begin the season in the AP To- 25 for the first time since 2021, a season which fell far, far, far short of expectations and marked the beginning of the end for Tom Allen.
Cignetti’s group, coaches and players alike, seem better equipped for the long-haul, but an 11-2 record and another Playoff berth will be hard to replicate. With a number of high-profile transfers and preseason All-Americans, the Hoosiers won’t catch anyone off guard this year.
Here’s what The Blog expects, hopes, and feels ahead of the 2025 campaign:
2025 record projection (short version):
Colin: Another 11-1 regular season.
Luke: A solid 9-3
2025 record projection (long version):
Colin: Realistically I know Indiana could be even double-digit dogs heading into Penn State, but James Franklin, even with his revamped staff, does not strike fear in me the way Oregon and Ohio State do. I will take Cignetti, a handful of known studs at the Power Five level, and a roster full of breakout prospects against that any day. The Ducks are the only loss I’m willing to concede right now.
Luke: I’m less optimistic. To be clear, I think Indiana will still be good, but this roster isn’t quite at the level of last year’s group on paper and is missing some depth at key spots. That three-game soft nonconference slate will be essential to this group coming together, communicating and learning how one another operate when there’s an actual opponent on the other side of the football. Illinois will be a good test for this group and a litmus for its chances against the likes of Penn State, Oregon and Iowa. I think it’s possible Indiana pulls two wins out of that group. It’s also possible, however unlikely it may feel after last year, that Indiana loses an absolute head scratcher to a team it has no business trailing. I think it’ll be solid, but a step down from last season.
What’s the floor for the 2025 team?
Colin: I don’t think there’s any real reason for Indiana fans to fear a drop off like the program experienced post-2021, but there are some scenarios that could get hairy for the Hoosiers. Tyler Cherry isn’t on the roster after suffering a knee injury and Tayven Jackson, who helped Indiana stay undefeated through Kurtis Rourke’s injury last year, so quarterback depth is a problem.
All that being said, I have the utmost faith in Cignetti and his staff to at least get to seven or eight wins, with bowl eligibility being a foregone conclusion. This coaching staff already overcame talent deficits on numerous occasions last year, so I don’t think injuries can derail what Indiana has going right now.
Luke: There’s more than enough winnable games on this schedule for Indiana to be a bowl team and I trust Cignetti to handle that better than most coaches. There’s going to be a dip after the highs of last season but there’s a lot of reason to believe this group is playing some sort of postseason football this winter.
What if things do get bad?
Colin: I’m going to reiterate that I do not think they will, but even in one year I think Cignetti has built up enough good will to withstand something of a sophomore slump. Before taking the field, he’s already elevated Indiana’s recruiting in the portal and high school ranks, meaning he could come back next season with even more weapons across the roster. There are also enough quality conference games with a trips to Iowa City, Happy Valley, and Eugene, plus home games against Illinois and Michigan State that a four to five losses may not even look bad on paper.
Luke: I think that’d require true disaster in terms of injuries. If things get Bad, it’s probably due to forces largely outside of the staff’s control.
Who will Indiana beat in the College Football Playoff?
Colin: A Clemson program re-energized by a Tom Allen defense, thus exorcising all demons from the program’s past and future.
Luke: Hypothetical Alabama