The Oklahoma City Thunder were the best team in the regular season by a lot. They steamrolled through the season to get to 68 wins. Considered the favorite in the Finals against the Indiana Pacers, the Thunder now find themselves in a hole not many teams have dug out of. Several factors point out that the Indiana Pacers are closer to the title than previously assumed. Right now, Finals history is on the side of the Pacers, not the Thunder.
So far, teams that have won Game 3 of a 1-1 NBA Finals have gone on to win the series 80.5% of the time. That means that the Thunder, the team favored to win the Finals, has to win four out of five games to break that streak. Can they do it? Of course. But will it happen? Let’s take a look at a couple of historical factors that favor the Pacers.
Thunder Find Themselves on the Wrong Side of Finals History
Indiana Has Yet to Lose a Back-to-Back in the Playoffs
So far, Indiana has yet to lose a back-to-back game in the playoffs. Considering they are up 2-1, that means that if they continue to rebound after a loss, they should win it in seven games at worst. The Pacers have lost five games so far in the postseason, and they have come back strong. In three of those five rebound games, they have won by 17+ points. Indiana has also won three series in which they were up 2-1, against the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and New York Knicks. In fact, they have yet to trail in a series. Speaking of losing back-to-back games, the Pacers haven’t lost two in a row since March 8 and 10.
The Thunder, on the other hand, lost consecutive games in April against the Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Lakers. But in the playoffs, they have yet to lose a back-to-back game. They can point to the Denver Nuggets series in the Conference Semifinals when they were also down 2-1 and came back to win the series. But will that happen again? We’ll have to wait and see.
The Pacers Continue to Wear Teams Out
In Game 3, we saw something that the Pacers have been doing for the entire postseason. They wear teams out. The Pacers might have the deepest rotation in the playoffs, and it showed again tonight.
Indiana had no player playing more than 36 minutes, and nine guys playing more than 15 minutes. Even Bennedict Mathurin and T.J. McConnell made huge contributions to the game. Notably, Mathurin posted a game-high 27 points. The Thunder, on the other hand, had three starters playing more than 36 minutes, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played 42 minutes. They had only seven players with more than 15 minutes.
While there is plenty of rest between games in the Finals, the Pacers have used this formula successfully in the playoffs. By Games 4 and 5, opposing teams start to feel tired, and that is when the Pacers turn up the tempo and run faster for easy baskets.
Rick Carlisle Outcoaching Mark Daigneault
Rick Carlisle might be one of the most underrated coaches in the league right now. When people talk about great coaches, his name rarely comes out. But if he beats the Thunder in the Finals, it will be the second time he has had an underdog team beat a super team. The first time was the legendary 2011 Finals when his Dallas Mavericks completely embarrassed LeBron James and the Heat. In Game 3, Carlisle made a couple of adjustments to help Tyrese Haliburton have a better game, and so far, he is outcoaching Mark.
Can the Thunder Dig Out of the Finals Hole?
The Oklahoma City Thunder finished tied for the fifth-best regular season record in NBA history. Out of the teams with a better regular season record, only the Golden State Warriors in 2016 failed to win the Championship.
Here is another interesting fact. Out of 14 teams with 67 or more wins in the regular season, nine have won the championship. The Thunder have a great shot of closing out an amazing regular season. But for that, they will have to beat the Finals odds. As we said in the beginning, teams winning Game 3 and leading 2-1 in the Finals have gone on to win 80.5% of the time. History is against the Thunder.
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