NEW YORK – You’ve seen every stat under the sun in the NBA. But the Indiana Pacers keep rewriting the rules. In three separate series, Indiana erased massive deficits. Each comeback seemed impossible at the time, yet they found ways to win. Indiana has made one stat in particular feel useless: win probability.
The Pacers Are Making This Stat ‘Useless’
Unbelievable Comebacks
First round against Milwaukee, Game 5: Indiana trailed by seven in overtime. With 1.3 seconds left, Tyrese Haliburton drove for a lay-in. Boom. Pacers win 119–118. The Bucks had a win probability of 100 percent with less than two minutes left. Yet the Pacers won.
Second round versus Cleveland, Game 2: Down seven with 46 seconds on the clock. Haliburton buried a corner three with two ticks left. Final: 120–119 Pacers. The Cavaliers had a win probability of 100 percent with less than two minutes left. Again, the Pacers prevailed.
Eastern Conference Finals, Game 1 versus New York: Trailing by 14 with 2:51 remaining, Knicks fans thought it was over. Jalen Brunson’s pull-up three pushed the lead to 14. Win probability sat at 100 percent. Then Indiana ripped off a 20–6 run to force overtime and won 138–135.
Stamina Beats Statistics
Here’s why those Pacers comebacks make the win probability stat ‘useless’. Indiana thrives when others fade. As games drag on, the Pacers tighten up. They out-hustle opponents. They out-think them too.
In Game 1 against New York, Andrew Nembhard capped off the turnaround by intercepting an OG Anunoby pass intended for Brunson with 18.9 seconds left in overtime. That crucial turnover sealed the win. Meanwhile, Aaron Nesmith knocked down wide-open threes, shots that came as the Knicks began to wear down. As fatigue set in, New York’s defense lost a step.
Discipline and Poise
Stamina alone doesn’t explain everything. The Pacers avoid rash fouls. They limit mental errors. That discipline fuels their late-game surges. They play smarter when the clock winds down. They control tempo, choose their spots, and make opponents feel pressured. Even when analytics say a comeback has zero chance, Indiana believes. They’ve mastered the art of believing in every possession.
Why the Pacers Make the Win Probability Stat Useless
Every win probability model uses time and score to set odds. Indiana throws those models out the window. Their comebacks expose the flaws in predictive stats. You can’t just look at a 100 percent win probability number and expect a sure outcome. The win probability is not a sure thing because Indiana will refuse to quit. They play with confidence, knowing they can defy the odds.
In all three games, analytics pegged their chance at zero. Yet they stormed back. Their fourth-quarter efforts and overtime resilience made that stat meaningless. That’s why, after three miracles, every data model should come with an asterisk.
The Pacers are a Coach’s Dream
Pacers have rewritten late-game theory. Rick Carlisle’s coaching has been unsung in the playoffs. A well coached team always executes no matter the situation. They’ve shown that heart and hustle can trump every predictive model. In each series, they dismantled win probability in real time. That’s why the Pacers have rendered the predictive stat useless. Because no number can capture this team’s will to win.
© Brad Penner-Imagn Images
The post The Pacers Are Making This Stat ‘Useless’ appeared first on Last Word On Basketball.