For the first time since 2016, there will be a Game 7 in the NBA Finals.
The last time an NBA Finals went the distance, Cleveland completed a comeback from a 3-1 series deficit against the 73-win Warriors, with a LeBron James chase-down block and a Kyrie Irving three-pointer in the final two minutes of Game 7 helping to seal the first championship in Cavaliers franchise history.
While there’s certainly no guarantee that Sunday’s Game 7 between the Thunder and Pacers will be as dramatic as that one from nine years ago, the two teams have put on an impressive show so far in this year’s Finals, starting with a Tyrese Haliburton game-winning shot with 0.3 seconds left in Game 1 to give the Pacers the upset victory.
The series has been back and forth since then — after falling behind 1-0 and 2-1, the Thunder won Games 4 and 5 and – with Haliburton battling a calf strain – appeared to be on the verge of their first championship since the team relocated to Oklahoma City.
But with their backs against the wall in front of a supportive home crowd in Indianapolis, the Pacers responded by racing out to a 22-point lead by the half of Game 6, then expanded that lead to 30 points by the end of the third quarter. The home fans didn’t exactly have to sweat out a close finish in the fourth.
As resilient as the Pacers have been all postseason, they’ll enter Game 7 as the solid underdogs. BetOnline.ag currently has Oklahoma City listed a 7.5-point favorite.
The Thunder’s regular season success is one big reason why that betting line is where it is. Oklahoma City submitted one of the best seasons in NBA history, with a 68-14 record and a +12.7 net rating. The Pacers also finished strong after getting off to a 10-15 start, but they had more losses by the 25-game mark than OKC did all year.
Home-court advantage in Game 7 is another significant factor to consider. The Thunder had an NBA-best 35-6 home record during the regular season and have gone 10-2 at Paycom Center during the playoffs.
While one of those two postseason home losses came to the Pacers, the Thunder have played far better basketball in Oklahoma City than in Indiana over the course of this series, with averages of 117.7 points and 10.7 per turnovers in their three home games, compared to 103.0 points and 18.7 turnovers per contest on the road.
Still, the Pacers have been excellent away from home over the course of the playoffs, winning seven of 11 games outside of Indiana, and their role players haven’t performed significantly better at Gainbridge Fieldhouse than elsewhere. In the Finals, Aaron Nesmith has knocked down 55.0% of his three-pointers on the road, while Obi Toppin has hit 38.9%. T.J. McConnell has put up 12.7 PPG and 4.7 APG on .630/.750/1.000 shooting in his three Finals road games.
Most importantly, even though his health was a major question mark entering Game 6, Haliburton was able to suit up on Thursday and will do so again on Sunday. The Pacers star said on Saturday that he’s still sore and is getting around-the-clock treatment, but not having to play in the fourth quarter on Thursday helped him and he’ll be good to go on Sunday (Twitter link via Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star).
Ahead of Sunday’s big game, we want to know what you think.
Do you expect the Thunder, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, to win the first of what they hope will be multiple championships? Or do you expect Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner, and the upstart Pacers to pull off yet another upset and earn the franchise its first NBA title?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!
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